Contents
- Monetary Valuation of Risks and Opportunities in CCRA3
- Projections of Future Flood Risk
- Projections of Future Water Availability
- Climate-driven threshold effects in the natural environment
- Understanding how behaviours can influence climate change risks
- Interacting risks in infrastructure, the built and natural environments
- A consistent set of socioeconomic dimensions for CCRA3
- Advice on improving the accessibility of CCRA3
- UK Wildfires and their climate challenges
- Comparison of UKCP09 and UKCP18 RCM-PPE ensembles
- Effect of potential climate tipping points on UK impacts
- Climate change, agricultural land use and changes in farm emissions of greenhouse gases
The CCC has commissioned research projects to feed into the technical chapters, with funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra); the Devolved Administrations; the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC); and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).
Monetary Valuation of Risks and Opportunities in CCRA3
As part of the specification for CCRA3, the UK Government requested an analysis of the monetary valuation of risks and opportunities, as well as an analysis of the indicative costs and benefits of adaptation. The valuation analysis is summarised in this report, and feeds in to the magnitude scoring for the CCRA3 Technical Report.
Led by: Paul Watkiss, Federica Cimato, and Alistait Hunt, Paul Watkiss Associates
Projections of Future Flood Risk
The CCC previously commissioned projections of current and future flood risk for the UK to inform the CCRA2 Evidence Report. This project updates those projections for the CCRA3 Evidence Report to take into account the new UKCP18 climate projections and the latest understanding of flood risk calculations and flood risk management policies. The project looks at river, coastal, surface water and groundwater flooding, and takes into account climate change, population growth and adaptation to project various metrics of flood risk (e.g. properties, people and assets exposed as well as annual expected damages) in the mid and late century for each of the four UK countries.
Led by: Sayers and Partners
Supporting documents:
Projections of Future Water Availability
The CCC previously commissioned projections of current and future water availability for the UK to inform the CCRA2 Evidence Report. This project updates those projections for the CCRA3 Evidence Report to take into account the new UKCP18 climate projections and the latest plans from water companies. The project looks at both the demand for and supply of water, and takes into account population growth and climate change to project how much water will be available in the mid and late century for each of the four UK countries. The project reports results for the public water supply and also for ‘all sectors’ which includes the demands of agriculture, energy generation, industry and the environment.
Led by: HR Wallingford
Climate-driven threshold effects in the natural environment
This project assesses a key evidence gap from the CCRA2 Evidence Report on climate-driven threshold (i.e. non-linear) effects within the natural environment, and the role of adaptation (natural and human responses) in moderating those threshold effects. A threshold is defined in the study as “the point at which a non-linear change in an ecosystem component occurs as a result of change in a climate driver”. The report assesses threshold effects in the following habitat types; freshwater, farmland and grasslands, peatlands, woodlands, marine and coastal margins.
Led by: UKCEH
Understanding how behaviours can influence climate change risks
This project addresses a key evidence gap from the CCRA2 Evidence Report on how the behaviour of individuals, communities and businesses affects vulnerability and exposure to a range of climate change risks, including flooding, heat, drought, and storms. It includes a set of case studies from locations around the UK: 1.Orkney Islands, 2. Greater Manchester, 3. London Borough of Lewisham, 4. Peebles, Scottish Borders 5. Llechryd, Ceredigion, Wales 6. Northern Ireland 7.UK-wide (responses to water scarcity).
Led by: AECOM
Supporting documents:
Interacting risks in infrastructure, the built and natural environments
This project assesses a key evidence gap from the CCRA2 Evidence Report in understanding how climate change affects the interaction of risks across the infrastructure, built environment and natural environment sectors. The project has created 12 interlinked systems maps showing principal interactions within and between the three sectors. Developed alongside the 12 systems maps is an interactive online tool, which visualises a single (combined) ‘mega map’ where users can select different climate inputs to identify pathways that are of interest.
Led by: WSP
A consistent set of socioeconomic dimensions for CCRA3
This report has produced consistent socioeconomic datasets to be used by the CCRA research teams and authors. The socioeconomic metrics considered are population, GDP, GVA, employment, labour productivity, land use, R&D expenditure, energy generation by technology and household size.
Led by: Cambridge Econometrics
Supporting documents:
Advice on improving the accessibility of CCRA3
This report provides the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) with advice on how to improve the accessibility of the CCRA3 Synthesis Report and accompanying summaries.
Led by: SWM
Supporting documents:
UK Wildfires and their climate challenges
This report assesses the magnitude of present and future UK wildfire risk in the context of climate change, together with a review of the response to that risk in terms of adaptive risk management. The report offers a more comprehensive assessment of wildfire risk for the third CCRA, bringing together new evidence that has emerged over the past five years.
Led by: Professor Claire Belcher, University of Exeter et al.
Comparison of UKCP09 and UKCP18 RCM-PPE ensembles
This report analyses and compares metrics from comparable components of the two most recent UK Climate Projections projects, UKCP18 (published in 2018) and UKCP09 (published in 2009). The analysis considers future changes in a set of meteorological metrics of interest through the 21st Century relative to a present-day baseline of 1981-2000 with a focus on changes at specified global warming levels ranging through 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.
Led by: Dr. Tim Johns, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
Effect of potential climate tipping points on UK impacts
The purpose of this report is to review current knowledge of climate tipping points and related processes and their potential impact on the UK were they to be passed. The report has been used to inform judgements of the urgency of adaptation for managing the risks and opportunities considered in the CCRA3 Technical Report.
Led by: Dr Helen Hanlon, Dr Matthew Palmer and Professor Richard Betts, Met Office Hadley Centre
Climate change, agricultural land use and changes in farm emissions of greenhouse gases
This report investigates the impact of climate change on UK agricultural land use and the consequences for greenhouse gas emissions across the farming sector. It has fed into the analysis of climate risk in Chapter 3 (Natural Environment and Assets) of the CCRA3 Technical Report.
Led by: Dr Mattia Mancini, University of Exeter et al.
