Technical Report

The University of Exeter is leading a consortium of experts who are preparing the technical chapters for the Technical Report in partnership with the Met Office. The technical chapters cover the underlying analysis and assessment of the level of risk or opportunity across the natural environment, infrastructure, people human health, built environment, business and international dimensions. The chapters will also set out the latest understanding of current and future climate change in the UK, and the CCRA method.

Introduction

This is the introduction to the Technical Report of the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). It sets the context for CCRA3 and provides some key background information.

Led by: Richard A. Betts and Kathryn Brown

Chapter 1: Latest Scientific Evidence for Observed and Projected Climate Change

This chapter considers the latest observations of, and future projections for, the changing climate in the UK and across the globe. In particular, this chapter focuses on new projections of climate change arising from developments in climate modelling since the 2nd Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) in 2017.

Led by: Julia Slingo

Chapter 2: Method

This chapter sets out the methodology for the Third UK CCRA Technical Report (CCRA3). The Technical Report informs the CCRA3 Advice Report, which is written by the Climate Change Committee, and these two documents together are the core components of the CCRA3 Independent Assessment.

Led by: Paul Watkiss, Richard Betts

Chapter 3: Natural Environment and Assets

This chapter assesses the climate-related risks and opportunities for the UK’s natural environment and has the same general scope as of Chapter 3 in the previous CCRA2.

Led by: Pam Berry, Iain Brown

Chapter 4: Infrastructure

This chapter assesses the climate-related risks and opportunities to infrastructure, primarily focussing on the ‘economic grey infrastructure’ that provides services such as heating, lighting, mobility, fresh water and sanitation to society, aligned with the remit of the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC).

Led by: David Jaroszweski, Ruth Wood, Lee Chapman

Chapter 5: Health, Communities and the Built Environment

This chapter summarises the evidence regarding the key risks and opportunities of climate change for the UK population, with a particular focus on health and wellbeing, and on the built environment.

Led by: Sari Kovats, Rachel Brisley

Chapter 6: Business and Industry

This chapter reviews the current and future climate risks and opportunities for business and industry2 in the UK. It outlines current and planned adaptation directly undertaken by companies and discusses benefits of further action. The main purpose is to inform government action to support private sector adaptation between 2023-2027.

Led by: Swenja Surminski

Chapter 7: International Dimensions

This chapter updates the second CCRA analysis of risks and opportunities for the UK from the observed and projected impacts of global climate change (Challinor et al., 2016). The chapter covers a broad range of initial climate drivers and impacts including food production, violent conflict, human mobility, health and governance.

Led by: Andy Challinor, Tim G. Benton