Independent assessment

The Climate Change Committee is now beginning its work on the next Independent Climate Change Risk Assessment. This is called CCRA4-IA for the UK and it will be published in 2026. CCRA4-IA will seek to inform the next round of National Adaptation Programmes across the nations of the UK, which will cover the late 2020s and early 2030s.  

Approach

The analysis will utilise the latest data, modelling advances and approaches to inform and improve efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change. The assessment will re-evaluate the urgency of the risks and ensure the evidence base continues to inform the changing needs of adaptation policy. This re-evaluation will be based on the most recent peer-reviewed research and targeted analysis of the options available to manage specific, urgent risks. This will inform a step-change for CCRA4-IA from an evaluation of risk towards the inclusion of a new focus on delivery and implementation of resilience measures.  

The impacts of climate change will increasingly present a challenge to delivering the legally-required achievement of Net Zero by 2050, the 25 Year Environment Plan, and desired Government goals such as economic growth, improved health, and strengthened local communities.

The analysis CCRA4-IA will be structured around five distinct outcome areas speaking to different aspects of our lives:  

  • The functioning of our economy (Economy outcome area),
  • Our physical health and wellbeing (Health and wellbeing),
  • The comfort, security and safety of our homes and places of work (Built environment),
  • The functioning of the infrastructure on which we depend (Infrastructure),
  • The state of the natural world, which supports our food production and other vital services (Land, nature and food).

To explore uncertainty associated with possible future changes to the climate and society, we are framing the analysis around a number of future scenarios. These will explore the uncertainties associated with key impact-driving factors, such as level of global warming and assumptions about levels of adaptation, using data from trusted sources.

These scenarios will be based on the latest science and form the lower and upper bounds of the analysis of evolving climate change. This will enable comparison of risks and associated costs under the two future scenarios with a present-day baseline, for the 2030s, 50s and 80s. This framing also enables comparison with earlier reports, which were structured in a similar way.

CCRA4-IA will comprise two main elements: a technical report and a new well-adapted UK report. 

UK Climate Risk figure 1

The technical report will synthesize the latest evidence from across the climate research landscape. It will provide a horizon-scanning assessment of risks to the UK within each outcome area, for the 2050s and 2080s. It will build on the foundation of the CCRA3-IA technical report, to update our understanding of the relative urgency with which each nation of the UK should be addressing known, and any newly discovered, risks. The production of the CCRA4-IA technical report will start in early 2024, and a call for evidence will be launched in Spring 2024. 

The separate well-adapted UK report will set out how climate and weather changes interact with critical aspects of society and how these growing risks can be effectively managed. We will take into account the increased hazards from a changing climate and the potential impact and vulnerability of people and things. To inform this report, we will commission research to build a better understanding of how increasing climate risk will impact the things upon which we depend such as power, food, water and housing. The analysis will move beyond assessing the possible future change in risk, to provide rigorous evidence on what a well-adapted future looks like. It will consider the investment necessary to achieve it, and the potential costs of not doing so. Central to the analysis will be the exploration of the future costs associated with the most urgent climate risks and the potential impact and cost of adaptation measures to reduce the risk.

We will work with stakeholders to bring together information on a wide range of adaptation options that can be taken to reduce rising future risks. Details will include the scale and speed at which these options would need to be deployed and their costs and effectiveness at reducing exposure to risk. Such options could include engineered solutions, such as flood management schemes; nature-based solutions, such as soil restoration; or behavioural interventions, such as training and skills development.

This will inform our understanding of the costs and benefits of actions to improve our resilience to climate change and how these might be distributed across society. It will also help to estimate the levels of public investment that will be essential to deliver improved on-the-ground resilience of critical systems over the coming decade. 

Recent advances in UK climate change projections will enable the well-adapted UK report to provide a more detailed assessment of how climate risk varies from place to place and across different parts of society. For example, we can improve our understanding of how the increased risk of heatwaves varies between different parts of the country and the characteristics of those living in climate risk ‘hotspots’.  

The report will also include more detailed analysis of the potential for cascading climate impacts, where an impact in one system can trigger impacts in others. For example, failures in the power system can lead to transport disruption, leading to critical care workers being unable to reach places of work, etc. 

The approach will also consider the co-benefits and trade-offs of different adaptation measures with parallel efforts to reduce GHG emissions, achieve better health outcomes for society and for the recovery of nature. We will also consider the potential role of nature-based solutions.

The decision-makers that are key to delivery of improved adaptation outcomes will be consulted throughout the focussed analyses of specific risks. This will ensure that our assessment is delivered in the way that is most useful and usable for driving change.  

Previous independent assessments

  • For the third Climate Change Risk Assessment, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has asked the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to prepare an independent Advice Report setting out the latest evidence on the risks and opportunities to the UK from climate change. The report does not summarise all 61 risks and opportunities in detail as this is done elsewhere, but it does provide a synthesis of the cross-cutting issues that emerge from the Technical Report, alongside the Committee’s recommendations.
  • For the second Climate Change Risk Assessment, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has asked the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to prepare an independent Advice Report setting out the latest evidence on the risks and opportunities to the UK from climate change. The report found six immediate priority areas related to risks of flooding and coastal change, the impact of high temperatures on health and wellbeing, risks to natural capital, risks of future water shortages, impacts on the global food system, and risks arising from new and emerging pests and diseases.
  • For the first Climate Change Risk Assessment, the Evidence Report assessed over 100 risks and opportunities, narrowed down from an initial list of over 700, and was prepared by a consortium led by the consultancy HR Wallingford.