Cost-effective adaptation research: Farmed landscapes (WSP)

About this document

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) commissioned WSP to assess risks from extreme heat to four key agricultural products: cereals, dairy cattle, laying hens, and lambs.

This research aimed to improve understanding of heat-related climate risk to farmland across the UK, and how adaptation options could reduce this risk whilst supporting agricultural productivity, nature, and providing wider ecosystem benefits.

This report reflects the views of the WSP and does not represent the views of the CCC.

Key messages

• Heat stress is already causing economic losses, and these losses will increase in the future. Current economic losses for UK agriculture from heat are £205 million annually across the components covered by this research. This is particularly driven by losses from wheat and barley. Expected annual losses could increase from present-day levels by 34% by the 2050s, this is valued at £275 million annually.
  
• Losses are not distributed evenly across the UK. The greatest agricultural losses occur in England, particularly in South East England, due to higher temperatures and distribution of wheat, oat, and barley production. Impact on lamb production is higher in Wales and Scotland than in the rest of the UK due to higher density of sheep farming in this area.
  
• Whilst the average annual losses fall within the current yearly variation (in year average) for the modelled agricultural components, in individual ‘bad’ years, annual losses could be severe at both farm and national scales in extreme climate events.
  
• The modelling showed there can be significant co-benefits from wider ecosystem services such as soil improvement, carbon storage, and biodiversity for many adaptation actions.
  
• A more complete analysis covering a broader range of climate risks or agricultural components was not possible due to a lack of data. The project identified key areas of research needed to undertake a fuller analysis on this topic in the future.
  

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