Reviewing climate change attribution in UK natural hazards and their impacts (University of Bristol, University of Exeter, Met Office Hadley Centre)

This project considers the attribution of climate related hazards in the UK and their potential for impact on natural or human systems.

Key findings and conclusions of the project are: 

• Overall, 67 Detection and Attribution (D&A) studies have been included and literature was found for 14 of the 29 hazards considered. 

• Heatwaves are the most studied hazard, with a unanimous consensus across all 33 studies of a strong attributable signal of human-induced climate change in their increased frequency and intensity over the last century. 

• For river and surface water flooding 19 studies are identified and the human contribution identified in large-scale precipitation trends, but not necessarily in regional studies. 

• Storms and related hazards such as extratropical cyclones, sting jets, storm surges, and coastal flooding are in general poorly studied within D&A. They can have significant impacts on infrastructure, but it is difficult to model them in general and attribution studies are thus rare.  

• The most notable gap identified by the review is the lack of impact attribution studies. This requires a multi-step approach that includes assessment of vulnerability and exposure. 

• The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) is an initiative that investigates future impacts of climate change across affected sectors and spatial scales. Though typically projections-focused, this could provide a framework for impact attribution.