Agriculture and Food Sector Briefing

About this document

Findings from the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Evidence Report 2021

This briefing summarises how agriculture and food have been assessed in the latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) Technical Report, and what types of action to adapt to climate change risks and opportunities would be beneficial in the next five years.

This publication is available in PDF format at the end of the page >

Key messages

• Future climatic changes, especially wetter or drier conditions, could significantly impact on UK soil health leading to implications for agricultural productivity.
• Agricultural productivity could be at risk under future climate scenarios. This could be as a direct result of more extreme weather (namely extreme heat, flooding, drought, sea level rise or saline intrusion), or due to a greater number of pests, pathogens and invasive non-native invasive species (INNS).
• There could also be some opportunities for UK agriculture under a changing climate should new or alternative species become suitable for the UK, or due to longer growing seasons (if water is not a limiting factor).
• Agricultural land is an important contributor to parts of the UK’s landscape character, meaning that changes to the former could directly affect the latter.
• The future impacts of climate change in the UK and overseas could pose risks to food safety and food security.

Risks, opportunities, and benefits of further action

Average UK wide scores

• 

  N4. Risk to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness.

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  N10. Risks to aquifers and agricultural land from saltwater intrusion.

  Further investigation

  Read more

• 

  N6. Risks and opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from extreme events and changing climatic conditions.

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  N7. Risks to agriculture from pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species.

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  N9. Opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from new/alternative species becoming suitable.

  Further investigation

  Read more

• 

  N18. Risks and opportunities from climate change to landscape character.

  Further investigation

  Read more

• 

  H9. Risks to food safety and food security from UK climate impacts.

  Further investigation

  Read more

• 

  ID1. Risks to UK food availability, safety, and quality from climate change overseas.

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  ID2. Opportunities for UK food imports or exports due to global climate change.

  Maintain a watching brief

  Read more

1. Risk to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness (N4)

There is increasing evidence of the negative impacts of future climate change on soil resources, often in combination with other factors, notably land use.

Future projections indicate that hazards such as heavy rainfall or wind (leading to erosion) and drought (leading to increased soil moisture deficits, peatland drying and potentially the degradation of soil microbial communities) will exacerbate the loss of soil resources.

The current rate of erosion is estimated at 2.9Mt/yr in England and Wales with productivity losses estimated at £40million/yr. Severe degradation of soil quality would be very likely to have long-term, potentially irreversible, implications particularly given the critical importance of soil in underpinning biodiversity, providing high-quality farmland and a range of ecosystem services.

There is the potential for major threshold effects at higher levels of warming (i.e. in a 4°C scenario). The risk is considered medium magnitude now, rising to high by the 2050s across the UK.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk N4

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Further research and comprehensive monitoring of soils to support development of sustainable soil policy initiatives.
• More investment in national-scale soil monitoring programmes and monitoring of different management interventions linking adaptation and mitigation.
• An improved evidence base on the climate-related implications for the wider range of multiple benefits delivered by soils, including to maintain water quality, alleviate flooding at catchment-scale, reduce drought risk and for priority habitats and species.
• Further integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies based upon long-term planning, including for ambitious land use policies such as woodland expansion and new bioenergy crops, based upon local soil properties. Soils and especially soil organic carbon (SOC) are crucial to the Net Zero agenda and hence climate-related impacts on SOC will have important implications for achieving the Net Zero goal, especially for peat which has high carbon stocks.
• Improved advice for land managers together with payments that incentivise improved soil health.
• Development and increased uptake of precision farming technology.
• Implementation of the proposed Environmental Land Management scheme (England), the Sustainable Agricultural Land Management Strategy (Northern Ireland), Soil and Nutrient Network and Farm Advisory Strategy (Scotland), Sustainable Farming and Our Land strategy (Wales) and other similar policies will contribute to the above actions and there is an opportunity to ensure that adaptation is embedded within emerging plans.

2. Risks to aquifers and agricultural land from saltwater intrusion (N10)

If sea levels rise relative to fresh groundwater levels, saltwater can enter the aquifer and increase salinity in agricultural land.

Saltwater cannot be used to irrigate crops or be consumed by people.

The risk is currently low at present and most likely to remain low in future unless a much greater rate of sea level rise was to occur than most estimates expect (the likely range for the UK being between 0.27 and 1.12 metres by 2100).

Current risk management procedures should remain adequate to adapt to the risk subject to further review. However, it is noted that the risk in south-east England may be greater than the rest of the UK, partly because of the combination of saline intrusion and expected reduced summer rainfall affecting aquifers.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Further research on changes in exposure and vulnerability, including in the context of the latest scientific data on sea level rise.
• Further investigation into the operational use of adaptation pathways related to changes in sea level rise, precipitation patterns and safe abstraction rates.
• Better storage and use of excess winter rainfall and other methods to maximise sustainable use of surface water resources (e.g. rainwater harvesting and on-farm reservoirs) to conserve groundwater resources at a sustainable level and mitigate against saline intrusion.
• Continue monitoring the impact on aquifers to assess whether risks are increasing.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk N10

3. Risks and opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from extreme events and changing climatic conditions (N6)

Weather hazards, including heat, cold, wetness and drought, affect the viability of agricultural land through its yields of crops and livestock, and hence productivity overall.

For example, after the hot dry summer of 2018, UK carrot yields were reportedly down 25-30% and onion yields down 40% on a normal year.

Agricultural activities on floodplains are also likely to suffer more disruption as they become flooded more frequently, to greater depths and extents.

Conversely, opportunities for other crops or livestock types are also possible in a changing climate, for example an increase in blackcurrant yields was observed in 2018 due to lower frost frequency.

The magnitude of this risk and opportunity is expected to increase from medium at present to high by the 2050s and beyond across the UK.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Regular systematic surveys on the uptake of adaptation practices in the UK.
• Application of near-term climate forecasts.
• A more comprehensive assessment of climate resilience and robustness of different land use options in the context of changing water availability.
• Better integration of Net Zero carbon targets and adaptation pathways. This is especially important given that future agronomy and bioenergy crops are required to contribute to the UK’s Net Zero target.
• Combined use of climate projections with socioeconomic scenarios to place UK production in an international context.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk/opportunity N6

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4. Risks to agriculture from pests, pathogens and invasive
non-native species (N7)

Pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species (INNS) present serious risks to agricultural productivity, with consequences for livelihoods and businesses.

One such example is the Septoria tritici blotch which costs UK wheat growers alone around £100-£200 million per year in yield losses.

Large-scale outbreaks or invasions may also have ramifications for food security.

The combined risk factors, both climatic and non-climatic, clearly suggest that the magnitude of this risk is increasing from medium at present to high by the 2050s and beyond across the UK.

Current institutional risk assessment procedures, for instance by plant and animal health agencies provide some adaptive capacity that acts to reduce the risk to a lower level at present and this will also have benefits in reducing risk in the future, but most do not give explicit reference to long-term future climate change including considerations of scenarios up to a 4°C world.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk N6

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Further development of international monitoring initiatives, surveillance, risk assessment procedures and bio-security measures.
• Enhanced horizon scanning for INNS from Europe and based upon changing international trade portfolio.
• Cross-sectoral initiatives for risk assessment and contingency planning using a range of diverse scenarios.
• Implementation and evaluation of risk reduction strategies for specific risks including prospects for resilient varieties and the use of increased diversification in plant and livestock species and varieties.
• Improved risk assessments with space and time dimensions to evaluate changing dynamics of individual pests, pathogens and INNS.
• Greater priority to inclusion of climate change within risk assessments, and for this to be validated against changing distribution data for Europe and beyond, to be used to further investigate the efficacy of different control options.
• Consider how the development of new international trade agreements following the UK’s departure from the EU will influence all the above.

5. Opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from new/alternative species becoming suitable (N9)

Future climate change, especially warming, will enhance climate suitability for new crop species.

This includes climate-related developments occurring through new species, varieties and cultivars, together with any new cropping combinations, along with the potential for existing crops being grown in new locations within the UK or to give higher yields.

There is limited evidence associated with this opportunity, but the assessment concludes that the level of opportunity will increase from medium at present to potentially high by the 2050s and beyond across the UK.

While it is expected that the farming and forestry industries will ultimately take advantage of any market opportunities, government intervention is likely to be required for initial funding to help both industries transition to new markets (as has been the case for example for new technologies for climate change mitigation).

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Undertake an inventory of the changing distribution of crop varieties and cultivars.
• Obtain more information on changing climate suitability and climate resilience from crop breeding programmes, trials and commercial programmes.
• Identify new opportunities for agro-forestry and inter-cropping in relation to improved understanding of different combinations in a wide variety of contexts, including the UK’s Net Zero agenda.
• Undertake a robust assessment of the potential for growing a wider range of crops than at present in support of healthy food systems and also linking with the Net Zero agenda.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, opportunity N9

6. Risks and opportunities from climate change to landscape character (N18)

This topic is broadly defined to include risks and opportunities relating to landscapes, landscape character and the historic environment and considers both prevention of landscape character changes and planning for inevitable projected changes.

There are many examples of landscapes that are integral to the UK’s landscape character and that are also important in ecological terms, but that could also be affected by climate change. Agricultural landscapes include hay meadows, the uplands, coppices and orchards.

Future changes to landscape character will occur from a range of natural responses to a changing climate, including changes to agricultural land. Landscapes have already been modified by a combination of changing conditions, including climate-related changes in agricultural landscapes, warmer temperatures, flooding, drought and storm damage, eutrophication in freshwater landscapes, and increasing incidence of wildfire.

The impacts on landscape character are assessed as increasing in magnitude from medium at present to high by the 2050s and beyond across the UK.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• A collaborative approach between local and national government that incorporates climate change into planning as part of the production of Landscape Character Assessments.
• Further investigation into public perceptions on landscapes and climate change factors to help with managing and innovating changes.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk/opportunity N18

7. Risks to food safety and food security from UK climate impacts (H9)

Increases in extreme weather patterns, variations in rainfall and changing annual temperatures will impact the occurrence and persistence of bacteria, viruses, parasites, harmful algae, fungi and their vectors in crops and livestock produced in the UK.

Animal products (meat and eggs) carry a higher risk than vegetables.

In terms of food security, access to healthy and affordable food is a public health issue; food insecurity driven by stock shortages or higher prices is often associated with inadequate intake of fruit, vegetables and some essential micronutrients.

Some studies project an average rise in price of 20% by 2050, though with a large uncertainty range. Due to the large burden of disease associated with food safety and the potential for very significant impacts from near term shortages in access to healthy foods, this risk is currently considered high currently and in the future across the UK

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Horizon scanning and continuous monitoring to ensure current regulations are adequate.
• Routine monitoring of food security across the UK to protect public health and limit unecessary costs for the health and social care system.
• Predicting future climate risks to the UK food system to ensure groups vulnerable to food insecurity are protected and the impacts to public health are minimised.
• As mycotoxins may be an increasing risk the UK food system in the future, some proposed strategies in agriculture and food transport can limit the risk of fungal infections (e.g. optimal harvest timing).
• Adopting new farming techniques such as deep ploughing to control ergot, targeting fungicide application, planting crop resistance varieties and introducing bio-control or genetic modification measures can limit the introduction of fungal spores to crops and the subsequent food system, though some of these measures can lead to other consequences, such as increased soil erosion and carbon losses.

Further details on this risk: Health, Communities and Built Environment Technical Chapter, risk H9.

8. Risks to UK food availability, safety, and quality from climate change overseas (ID1)

Climate change is likely to exacerbate disruptive events that impact on global agricultural production and food supply chains, including through droughts, storms and pests and diseases, with increased risks of disruptions associated with multiple production areas.

This will increase the risks of risk cascades amplifying the effects. In the longer term, the risks of passing climate tipping points at higher levels of warming may also increase chances of widespread food system impacts. Of concern is the UK reliability of fruit and vegetable imports, with over 80% of fruit and about 50% of vegetables imported.

The vegetable shortages of early 2017, for example, were the result of climatic shocks to the food system. This implies a requirement to develop food systems that are resilient to disruption, rather than focusing on supply chain efficiency, which increases fragility.

Evidence for the urgency of dealing with this risk has increased since the last UK climate risk assessment for two reasons: first, there is more evidence of specific events and their impact; and second, experience of the last few years suggests growing evidence that there is a fundamental lack of systemic resilience. The magnitude is considered high now and in the future.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Removing some of the barriers to enable and encourage private sector adaptation, as well as ensuring a higher level of resilience along supply chains.
• Investigating the potential for a multi-national regulatory structure in the food commodity markets which are most vulnerable to climate-related supply-side shocks.
• Further developing and stimulating uptake of insurance instruments that protect both domestic and international actors in food supply chains.
• Developing a greater focus on adaptive management, research and learning.

Further details on this risk: International Dimensions Technical Chapter, risk ID1

9. Opportunities for UK food imports or exports due to global climate change (ID2)

Global patterns of climate change can alter the comparative advantage of the UK in producing and trading in food.

The impact of climate change on global production patterns depends upon the relative importance of extreme events versus more gradual changes in climate, which may vary geographically.

For example, new areas may open for production as a result of gradual warming, so long as extreme events do not disrupt agriculture and productivity. However, these is a lack of evidence at present to suggest that food production opportunities will be the norm. There are, however, opportunities associated with other drivers of international food systems, such as the ongoing trend towards plant-based diets, and there may also be some locations where increases in yields are possible, such as rain-fed grass production in northern Europe.

The magnitude is considered low now and in the future.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Access to a broad range of international markets, via goods, finance and market transmission pathways, in order to ensure that any opportunities associated with changing patterns of global food production can be utilised.
• Accessing such markets has the co-benefit of providing some resilience to external shocks, either climate related, or otherwise such as the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Demand for plant-based meat substitutes is also growing globally and if these trends continue then they will also eventually alter the patterns of global food production. If these changes are planned well, they should result in a reduction in global emissions alongside improved climate resilience.

Further details on this risk: International Dimensions Technical Chapter, opportunity ID2

Variations across the UK

Background

The UK Government is required by the UK Climate Change Act 2008 to assess the risks and opportunities from climate change to the UK every five years and respond to the risks via a National Adaptation Programme, covering England. The devolved administrations also publish their own adaptation programmes in response to the risk assessment.

For this third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, the Government’s independent advisers on climate change, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have been asked to prepare an independent risk assessment setting out the latest evidence on the risks and opportunities to the UK.

Over 450 people from more than 130 organisations have contributed to preparing the assessment. The risks have been assessed using the latest climate projections for the UK which were updated in 2018 by the Met Office. These briefings summarise some of the key topics that are assessed through the Technical Report, to enable readers to understand the key messages and where to find more detail.

Where to find more detail

Each risk or opportunity in this briefing has an identifier code linked to the full analysis, which is available in the CCRA3 Technical Report. Readers are encouraged to use these briefings to locate the parts of the Technical Report of most relevance to them.

Alternatively, if you would like a summary of the analysis by UK nation, please go to the national summary documents: