Summary for Scotland (CCRA3-IA)

About this document

Author: Sniffer

The Independent Assessment used to help inform the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) assesses 61 risks and opportunities from climate change to Scotland, including to business, infrastructure, housing, the natural environment, our health and risks from the impacts of climate change internationally. Risks categorised as “More action needed” and “Further investigation” are more urgent than “Watching brief” and “Sustain current action.” Of these 61 risks and opportunities, more action is needed in Scotland now to address 32 of them, with sustaining current action only deemed appropriate in four cases. Of the 61, four issues are deemed to be both a risk and opportunity, three of which are associated with the natural environment and each of these require more action or further investigation. There are also eight opportunities that could arise from climate change in Scotland, with five of them requiring more action or further investigation.

This publication is available in PDF format at the end of the page >

In total, the urgency scores for 25 risks from climate change in Scotland have increased since the previous CCRA five years ago. These are summarised at the start of each section of this report. In only one case has the urgency score decreased since the previous CCRA. There are also some new and emerging risks.

The risk of flooding^[1] to people, communities and buildings remains among the most severe risk for Scotland and is the costliest hazard to businesses. Flooding remains a key risk to infrastructure, and water scarcity in summer is an issue, particularly for private water supplies. Climate change also continues to affect the natural and marine environment across Scotland, as well as its agriculture and forestry, landscapes and regulating services such as pollination. High temperatures also have the potential to affect a wide range of health and social outcomes. Interactions between risks are also increasingly recognised. The rest of this report outlines what the risks and opportunities associated with climate change are for Scotland, their urgency scores, the evidence for this and the benefits for further action in the next five years.

In summary, risks in Scotland that have a high future magnitude score and where more action is required now to address them, after considering any existing adaptation responses, include the following:

• The impacts of climate change on the natural environment, including terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine species, forests and agriculture.
• An increase in the range, quantities and consequences of pests, pathogens and invasive species, negatively affecting terrestrial, freshwater and marine priority habitats species, forestry and agriculture.
• The risk of climate change impacts, especially more frequent flooding and coastal erosion, causing damage to our infrastructure services, including energy, transport, water and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT).
• The impact of extreme temperatures, high winds and lightning on the transport network.
• The impact of increasing high temperatures on people’s health and wellbeing and changes in household energy demand due to seasonal temperature changes.
• Increased severity and frequency of flooding of homes, communities and businesses.
• The viability of coastal communities and the impact on coastal businesses due to sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion.
• Damage to our cultural heritage assets as a result of temperature, precipitation, groundwater and landscape changes.
• Impacts internationally that may affect the UK, such as risks to food availability, safety and security, risks to international law and governance from climate change that will affect the UK, international trade routes, public health and the multiplication of risks across systems and geographies.

1. Introduction

About

This report is a summary of the implications for Scotland of the evidence for the third and latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report. The UK Government is required by the Climate Change Act 2008 to conduct such an assessment every five years, to inform the UK National Adaptation Plans for England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. This is the third such national assessment and the second time the UK Government has asked its independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee to prepare the initial Independent Assessment Technical Report. The timescale, process and outputs that form the CCRA3 Technical Report are illustrated on the following page.

The process is complex – involving over 450 experts – and has produced a large volume of information which is why a range of materials are provided alongside the CCRA3 Technical Report to summarise the results spatially and thematically. An Advice Report is also provided as part of the Independent Assessment to give the formal advice from the Committee to the Government, which is then required to publish its own assessment (the CCRA3 Government Report) in 2022.

61 specific risks and opportunities were assessed in detail in the Technical Report and each one given an urgency score. As climate risks and adaptation actions vary across the UK, the urgency scores also vary which is why summaries have been produced for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to capture the risk scores and highlight the differences accordingly. The summary highlights the most urgent risks, those which require more action taking and/or require more investigation and the less urgent risks where current action is sufficient or where a watching brief is required.

This report does not provide a detailed assessment of policy, and readers wanting further information about this for each risk should consult the relevant technical chapter. This summary provides signposting showing where you can find this information at the end of each risk. These summaries should also be used as a guide to the overall CCRA3 Technical Report findings rather than being seen as ‘the risk assessment’ for each UK nation. They summarise the nature of each risk or opportunity rather than what specific responses should be taken forward.

Audience

The main audience for this summary is the Scottish Government, its departments, and their agencies. It may also be of interest to a much wider audience across the public, private, and voluntary sectors where the changing climate is likely to affect plans, projects, and operations increasingly over time.

Application

This summary should be used to inform the national climate change adaptation plans of the Scottish Government and be used to help Government understand how the changing climate is likely to impact on its many other programmes and investments so that appropriate adaptation measures can be integrated as required. Local government and other bodies operating at a local level in Scotland may also find this summary helpful in producing or revising their own local climate risk assessments or climate resilience plans. Further, more localised risk assessments may be required however, or existing assessments reviewed in the light of these latest national level findings.

The context for climate change adaptation in Scotland

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 establishes the statutory framework for adaptation planning in Scotland. The statutory Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programmes (SCCAPs) prepared every five years under section 53 of this legislation addresses the impacts identified for Scotland and sets out the Scottish Government’s objectives in relation to adaptation to climate change. The first SCCAP was released in May 2014, followed by Climate Ready Scotland: Second Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024 (SCCAP2) which was published in September 2019. SCCAP2 takes an outcomes-based approach, derived from both the UN Sustainable Development Goals and Scotland’s National Performance Framework. In addition, the first UK National Adaptation Programme, covering the UK for reserved matters and England only for devolved matters^[2] was published in 2013 and updated in 2018 following the second UK Climate Change Risk Assessment.

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 stipulates that the UK Government must assess ‘the risks for the UK from the current and predicted impacts of climate change’. Reports must be prepared and be submitted to the UK Parliament by the UK Government and the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. The third SCCAP is due to be brought forward by September 2024, in response to the statutory component of the present CCRA3 risk assessment.

The CCRA seeks to answer the question, ‘based on the latest understanding of current, and future, climate risks/opportunities, vulnerability and adaptation, what should the priorities be for the next UK National Adaptation Programme and adaptation programmes of the devolved administrations?’

To answer this question, each of the risks is assessed in a three-step urgency scoring process:

• What is the current and future level of risk?
• To what extent is the risk going to be managed?
• Are there benefits of further action in the next five years, over and above what is already planned?

The analysis for each risk or opportunity is based on the evidence available to the team of authors that worked on each technical chapter and supplemented by additional research projects commissioned specifically for the CCRA3 Technical Report. Authors of the Technical Report have been supported to do this through a series of consultations and workshops on risks, and reviewing the draft technical chapters and factsheets with officials and organisations in Scotland. Chapter authors have also been supported to reflect the specific contexts in each devolved administration through research and expert judgement commissioned through the Climate Change Committee.^[3]

Based on the evidence available, supplemented by expert judgement where necessary, each risk has been assigned one of four urgency categories as follows (see ‘Method’ technical chapter for more information):

The urgency scores and colour coding used in this summary:

The methodology and process of the CCRA3 Technical Report and risk assessment process is as follows.

2. Climate change in Scotland

How is Scotland’s climate changing?

Over the last few decades Scotland has experienced a warming trend, shifting rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels:

Temperature

Scotland’s 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997. The average temperature in the last decade (2010-2019) was 0.69°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average, and the warmest year on record was 2014.

Rainfall

There has been an increase in rainfall over Scotland in the past few decades (with an increasing proportion of rainfall coming from heavy rainfall events). The annual average rainfall in the last decade (2010-2019) was 9% wetter than the 1961-1990 average, with winters 19% wetter.

Sea level rise

Mean sea level around the UK has risen by approximately 1.4mm a year from the start of the 20^th century.

How could the climate change in future?^[4]

Temperature

Annual temperatures in Scotland are expected to rise by approximately 1.1°C by the 2050s and between 1.1 and 2.0°C by the 2080s from a 1981-2000 baseline, based on the methodology set out above and depending on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between now and then. Risks associated with rising temperatures, such as more extreme heatwave events causing impacts on people’s health and wellbeing, are likely become more prevalent as a result, with their magnitude depending on the degree of change that is experienced.

Rainfall

There is a difference in expected rainfall trends in future in Scotland, depending on the season. In winter, rainfall is expected to increase by approximately 7% by the 2050s and by 7% to 13% by the 2080s from a 1981-2000 baseline, depending on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is projected to lead to an increase in the likelihood of flooding of infrastructure, businesses and homes. Conversely, summer rainfall is expected to decrease by approximately 7% by the 2050s and by 12% to 16% by the 2080s. Periods of water scarcity are projected to become more prevalent under these scenarios, leading to possible implications in agriculture and industry, for example.

Weather extremes

The frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and rainfall events is also likely to increase in future, with the extent of change depending on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By 2100 many areas could see daily temperatures exceed 30°C more often.

As well as winters becoming wetter overall, the intensity of rainfall is also projected to increase by as much as 25%. The same analysis for summer shows that, despite overall summer drying with wet days projected to become less frequent, when it does rain, the rainfall will be more intense.

Sea level rise

As indicated in the table above, using scenarios for Edinburgh, sea level is expected to rise by between approximately 12 and 18cm by the 2050s and by approximately 23 to 54cm by the 2080s, compared to a 1981-2000 baseline and depending on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Such rises would lead to an increase in likelihood of associated risks, such as flooding of coastal communities.

The risks associated with these projected changes in Scotland are outlined overleaf and are summarised throughout the rest of this document.

3. Summary of the risks and opportunities in Scotland

The following sections elaborate on this list of identified climate risks and opportunities to Scotland’s natural environment, infrastructure, population health and businesses, mirroring the CCRA3 Technical Report. All information included in this document comes from the chapters that make up the Technical Report, unless specified otherwise. There is also a section dedicated to the risks to the UK posed by climate change abroad. Under each risk heading there is a definition and description of the risk and then a summary of the benefits of further action over the next five years. All information included in this document comes from these chapters unless specified otherwise.

Links are provided for readers wanting to find more detail of the assessment findings and the adaptation action that is needed by the UK and Scottish Governments and their arm’s length bodies and partners over the next five years to improve the country’s resilience, knowledge and understanding. This will be useful for departmental and agency officials needing to work out the details of how to make changes in practice and to universities and other research bodies wanting to offer their expertise in filling the identified research gaps.

4. Natural Environment and Natural Assets

Smailholm Tower, Scottish Borders, © Historic Environment Scotland

Climate change continues to affect the natural environment across Scotland. This section examines the evidence regarding the key risks and opportunities of climate change for terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine natural environments, as well as for agriculture and forestry and landscapes. It recognises the key principles of the ecosystem approach, acknowledging the interdependencies and benefits of the natural environment for the economy and human well-being.

A different framing and a larger number of risks have been included in CCRA3 Technical Report than in the previous assessment. There is also a limited amount of new evidence for some risks, making it difficult to assess their magnitude in many cases, especially across the different UK countries.

Most of the risk and opportunity urgency scores related to the natural environment have remained the same as in CCRA2, but in some cases they have increased, as shown in the table below.

N1. Terrestrial species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

There is considerable evidence of the current and likely future effects of climate change and associated drivers on land-dwelling biodiversity in Scotland. This includes impacts on individuals such as changes in physiology or phenology (the timing of life cycle events), changes in population composition and abundance, and the distribution of species.

Expected climate impacts such as droughts, waterlogging or wildfire, can lead to losses or gains of species in a community or geographic area, although changes in distribution can also represent opportunities for the receiving area (see N3). Some specific examples of changes in bioclimatic suitability are provided in the Natural Environment and Assets technical chapter. For example, climate change may be contributing to the decline of some upland birds such as curlew and golden plover, due to the drying of soils negatively affecting food supplies in their breeding grounds. Given the individualistic and mixed response it is hard to assess the magnitude of this risk for specific locations, habitats or species groups. However, the number of species and habitats adversely affected by climate change and the potential for local or more widespread extinctions and losses means the magnitude of current and future risk are both considered to be high.

There are a range of policies and measures in place aimed at facilitating adaptation and reducing the impacts of climate change. For example, monitoring ecological connectivity is one of Sottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme’s (SCCAP2) monitoring framework, and Scotland is ahead of other parts of the UK in thinking about the potential for species relocations. Scotland’s National Peatland Plan aims to support an increase in the annual rate of peatland restoration, from 10,000 hectares in 2017‑2018 to 20,000 hectares per year thereafter. The Pollinator Strategy for Scotland also sets out how Scotland can continue to be a place where pollinators thrive.

While there are extensive current and planned adaptation measures, there is a gap in understanding of how targets set out in policy are planned to be met through actions, as well as a lack of evidence of the effectiveness of these measures in reducing vulnerability and exposure, especially in the short-term. Thus, more action is still needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There are significant benefits from further action now and in the future – particularly from increasing current efforts to reduce existing pressures, improving the ecological condition of protected wildlife sites and restoring degraded ecosystems, such as peatlands, wetlands, and native woodlands.

Ecological restoration can take many decades for some habitats, meaning it can take a long time for adaptation actions to be realised. There is a need to take more flexible and integrated approaches to managing natural capital, including further realignment of the coast, catchment-scale management strategies and landscape-scale initiatives to increase habitat extent and improve habitat condition and connectivity.

Climate change could also be more explicitly accounted for in conservation planning at site level and more widely. This may include modifying conservation objectives and planning for and anticipating changes in spatial distribution, for example by identifying more resilient species that could thrive in particularly challenging environments. Site level conservation objectives and plans would benefit from being reviewed to assess whether management is appropriate for new or potential species to thrive. It is important that planning begins in time for action to be effective. Increasingly the link is being made between climate change and biodiversity loss, with nature-based solutions being an important way of addressing these two issues together.

Scotland’s Net Zero emissions target not only involves mitigation, but also offers the potential to build climate change adaptation into land management and increase ecological resilience, with peatland restoration a particular opportunity for mitigation and adaptation co-benefits. There will also be benefits to ensuring that other actions that may contribute to Net Zero emission targets, such as an increasing use of biofuels, to avoid creating an even greater risk of habitat loss or damage.

N2. Terrestrial species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

Pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species (INNS), have the potential to disrupt key ecosystem functions and cause significant economic damage. They threaten individual species or whole habitats and can severely impact a range of ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and biodiversity, and cultural heritage such as parks, gardens and designed landscapes.

Evidence of recent increases in the number and severity of outbreaks of native pest and pathogen species, and establishment of INNS, indicate that risks to terrestrial species and habitats have continued to increase since CCRA2 (figure 3). Their relationship with climate depends on the individual pest or pathogen but includes maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity and potentially wind direction. Continued warming and changing patterns of extreme events are expected to expand the range of suitable climates for many species and increase the chance of establishment of INNS, thereby increasing the future risk to terrestrial species and habitats. NatureScot consider INNS to be the second most serious threat to global biodiversity after habitat loss, and it is indicated that INNS potentially cost the UK economy £1.8 billion per year.

Figure 3: Number of invasive non-native species established across or along 10% or more of the land area or coastline of Great Britain, 1960 to 2018. Note that the last time period is shorter than the other bars (from 2010 to 2018) (reproduced from Natural Environment and Assets technical chapter).

While socioeconomic drivers (such as cross-border trade and land use change) do have a significant influence, climate change impacts on the life cycle and spread of pests and pathogens, and the arrival and establishment of INNS. In recent years, warmer winters have had a clear influence on outbreaks and arrivals of some pests and pathogens in the UK.

New and emerging pests and diseases and INNS have been identified as important risks due to their negative effect on both biodiversity and agriculture and forestry (see risks N7 and N8). In Scotland, Dothistroma needle blight (DNB) poses a particular threat to Scotland’s native Caledonian pinewoods. Although the cause of recent increases in DNB are currently unclear, some evidence suggests that increased rainfall in spring and summer, coupled with warmer springs may have optimised conditions for spore dispersal and infection. The risk is expected to increase under projected climate change, leading to reduced growth and carbon sequestration of Scots Pine across Scotland. The juniper disease, Phytophthora austrocedri, has also spread rapidly to sites across Scotland.

Uncertainties in species and habitat responses to future climate changes are compounded by large uncertainties in future human interactions, such as biosecurity practices, land use change, trade patterns and habitat connectivity. Also, the threat posed by cryptic diseases (those that are difficult to detect, such as phytophthoras) will continue to be difficult to assess. While the risk is assessed as medium magnitude in the current climate, it is assessed as high in a future +4°C at 2100 scenario in Scotland due to an increasing risk posed by higher temperatures. Moreover, there is a shortfall in adaptation, making it unclear how this is going to be addressed. Thus, more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

The economic and environmental costs of managing established pests, pathogens and INNS are considerably higher than those of biosecurity measures to prevent them becoming established. Therefore, further adaptation actions focusing on enhanced prevention, monitoring, surveillance, and early response are considered highly beneficial. Increased horizon scanning for INNS and improved coordination with international pest risk surveillance organisations would help Scotland manage risks associated with changes in post EU-exit trade and climate.

Further research on the likely responses and resilience of native species and habitats to pest and pathogen risks and adaptation options, can also help inform further action. Further research on the implications of projected climate changes within the context of potential changes in trade and other drivers could also help inform planning. There may also be benefits from more integrated cross-sector action across agriculture, forestry, natural environment, and human health to implement good practices and share tools and resources.

N3. Terrestrial species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

While many species and habitats are at risk from climate change, there are those that could benefit. Rising temperatures can provide opportunities for increases in populations, as well as species moving and/or expanding their ranges northwards or to higher altitudes to colonise new areas. The species can be new to the UK, or may be new to Scotland or Scottish regions, migrating from more southern areas (if it interacts negatively with native species, or alters habitat condition, then it is considered an INNS or pest (N2)). While both scenarios can be consistent with climate change, often it is a complex situation involving other drivers such as changes in land use.

Modelled changes in climate suitability for some bird species showed the largest increases were projected for the north and west, especially in Scotland. It is likely that climate change will continue to offer opportunities to some species, particularly mobile ones which have suitable habitats and food sources in their potential new climate space. Some species will not be able to take advantage of these opportunities for several reasons, including lack of a supply of migrants, dispersal routes and suitable habitat availability.

• Current and future opportunity is assessed as medium for Scotland, increasing to high in a +4°C at 2100 scenario, as there are greater opportunities for range expansion.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Further investigation is needed to identify species for which climate change would represent an opportunity and to understand the implications of their arrival into new areas or habitats, whilst considering how to integrate them into future conservation planning. Scotland is the first UK nation to begin to make these assessments. A National Species Reintroduction Forum project (led by NatureScot and Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh) is working to identify species where assisted colonisation and other forms of conservation translocation could benefit species at risk from climate change, alongside wider environmental benefits. However, at present it is not possible to assess the extent of the impact that these initiatives are likely to have on this opportunity.

Those actions for managing species loss (N1) are consistent with what is needed to enable species to migrate in response to climate change, through halting and reversing habitat degradation and fragmentation of the natural environment. This opportunity may be further enhanced by carbon offsetting and government funding in support of Net Zero, although there are risks from intensive forestry and biofuel production if carbon sequestration alone is a driver. A key adaptation action therefore is to ensure a joined-up approach with Net Zero mitigation policies.

N4. Soils

Summary of risk definition and description

There is increasing evidence of the negative impacts of climate change on soils, often in combination with other factors, notably land use. Future climate projections provide strong evidence that climate risk to soils will increase in Scotland due to heavier rainfall events (resulting in erosion, compaction, and pollution), and increased soil moisture deficits in summer (leading to loss of soil biodiversity and organic matter).

Degradation of soils in combination with climate change has important, potentially irreversible environmental, economic, and social consequences. For example, soil erosion resulting from poor land management and triggered by intense rainfall can impact water quality, freshwater biodiversity, and GHG emissions. In Scotland, the total annual costs of soil erosion by water have been estimated at £31-50m per year (extrapolated from five case study catchments, and including drinking water treatment).

Evidence is increasing that degraded soil structure and ineffective artificial drainage in agricultural areas may be increasing flood risk and reducing water quality. Analysis of 120 fields in four Scottish catchments following the extremely wet winter of 2015/16 found a 30% increase in occurrence of severely degraded topsoil, compared to previous years. Runoff, erosion, and nutrient losses were 10 times greater in the most degraded parts of the fields.

Drained and cultivated lowland peatlands are identified as notably vulnerable to climate change, as they currently lose about 1-2cm of soil depth every year due to oxidation and erosion, with the loss of soil carbon reducing soil fertility. It should be noted that increased frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events could indicate a further risk of reactivation and run off from contaminated land, especially for former mining areas of which there are a number in Scotland.

The lack of recent systemic soil monitoring data in Scotland limits understanding of current trends, but Chapter 3 suggests that the climate sensitivity of soils together with their current status (which is often in poor condition) would mean that future climate change would significantly increase risks to soils and their functions or services. The magnitude of risk for Scotland increases from medium at present to high in future, and although awareness of this threat has improved, there is a significant adaptation shortfall, hence more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Despite recognition that soils need to be in sustainable condition, and notwithstanding some positive developments regarding soil risk management in Scotland as detailed below, at national scale this action is still insufficient to manage the future levels of climate change risks down to low magnitude levels.

There is strong evidence that further research and comprehensive monitoring of soils to support development of sustainable soil policy initiatives would bring major benefits. SCCAP2 recognises that there are currently insufficient data and metrics to assess soil vulnerability to climate change, and an improved indicator framework for soil health is being developed. Risk maps for soil erosion and compaction have been developed for Scotland’s main agricultural areas, which provide a basis for identifying where additional adaptation actions, notably through land management, are likely to be necessary. The Soil and Nutrient Network and Farm Advisory Service can facilitate actions for sustainable soils, and the Soil Association’s Farming for the Future programme promotes knowledge exchange and innovation regarding improved soil health.

However, the Chapter 3 states that current trends in soil degradation are not currently being reversed. As such, integrated land use policy linking agricultural and forestry productivity with measures that improve soil health and resilience, based upon good knowledge of the potential of different soil types and their key functions would be beneficial. Policy developments can also include further integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies based upon long-term planning, including for ambitious land use policies such as woodland expansion and new bioenergy crops based upon local soil properties. This may also require improved support for land managers in terms of access to benchmarking data, and advice on how to improve soil health outcomes. Greater technical support to improve soil health can result in improved connection of land managers with their soil and can therefore encourage more bottom-up adaptation initiatives based on different local contexts.

Lastly, a particular adaptation challenge has been identified in terms of improved risk management for spoil tips and contaminated land. A variety of engineering solutions may be applied (such as improved drainage to avoid soil saturation) but there is also further scope for use of nature-based solutions such as phytoremediation and tree planting to enhance slope stability.

N5. Natural carbon stores, carbon sequestration
and GHG emissions

Summary of risk definition and description

This topic presents both risks and opportunities that occur from the effects of a changing climate on carbon stores and GHG emissions, and therefore on Scotland’s commitment to reduce GHG emissions through climate change mitigation. Important stores of carbon that are considered in the CCRA analysis include coastal and marine habitats including saltmarsh and kelp forests (‘blue carbon‘), soils and peatlands, vegetation and trees, as well emissions from agriculture. Indirect effects of climate change such as land use change or coastal and marine management decisions will interact with the direct effects of temperature and moisture on soil and vegetation, with complex outcomes for carbon stocks and GHG emissions, both spatially and temporally.

The CCRA analysis updates evidence that peatland degradation and carbon losses will be exacerbated by runoff during intense rainfall events, in addition to increased oxidation from warmer and sometimes drier conditions. There are likely to be threshold effects for carbon gains and losses from soils and peatlands, but the evidence remains uncertain, especially when coupled with the uncertainty over the effects of changes in Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Wildfire also poses a significant risk to loss of carbon stores. There is projected to be a much greater risk of loss of coastal and marine carbon sequestration at higher magnitudes of climate change, associated with both warmer temperatures and acidification risks for marine organisms.  

Opportunities may also arise due to a changing climate. For example, regarding peatlands, locations at which carbon sequestration rates are highest are typically associated with mild and wet bioclimates, allowing high primary productivity. However, higher magnitudes of climate change in future may be less favourable.

Policies of relevance to this risk include Scotland’s National Peatland Plan, as implemented through the Peatland Action initiative, which aims to increase restoration from the current target of 10kha per year to 40kha per year after 2020 (and to restore 250,000ha by 2030), with current restoration activities covering an area exceeding 20kha.

As was the case in CCRA2, this topic requires more action, arguably even more so now with the commitment to Net Zero emissions by 2045 in Scotland. The magnitude of risk increases from medium at present to high in future, but currently there is only limited inclusion of adaptation planning with carbon and GHG emissions assessments. Partly this is due to limited information, also indicating a need for more research and investigation.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

More action is required to integrate adaptation and mitigation agendas, given the large scale of the risk and the lack of integration of adaptation considerations in mitigation strategies aimed at increasing natural carbon storage and sequestration. Beneficial actions include:

• Stress-testing of proposed measures in Net Zero pathways against the wider range of climate change risks, including the full range of climate projections.
• More targeted actions to restore degraded carbon stores, particularly peatlands.
• More strategic approaches to land use planning, integrating agriculture and forestry to link net GHG gains with other multiple benefits. Spatially targeted strategies are likely to deliver greater benefits for net GHG balance than an untargeted approach, given the strong spatial dimension of natural carbon stores.
• A more strategic approach to planning and decision making to integrate the use of land, coast and marine effectively, recognising their interdependencies through development of appropriate policy frameworks.
• More research to account for climate change risks to carbon stores in UK GHG Inventory projections.
• Better integration of blue carbon in adaptation/mitigation planning and reporting.
• More investigation of integrated adaptation/mitigation benefits from nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture.
• Systematic soil carbon monitoring for diverse land uses, bioclimatic zones, and management interventions. Carbon certification schemes such as the Woodland Code and Peatland Code may be valuable in providing data.
• Improved support and outreach for land managers to encourage uptake and knowledge exchange on good management practice. Initiatives such as the Scottish Farm Advisory Service and Farming for a Better Climate provide pathways to take forward this joint adaptation and mitigation approach.

N6. Agricultural and forestry productivity

Summary of risk definition and description

This topic covers implications of climate change for the productive capacity of agriculture and forestry, notably for crops, livestock, milk, timber, and other fibres. Both forestry and agriculture have a close relationship with climate due to its influence on the viability of crops, livestock, and land management activities. There is good evidence that weather and climate variations affect utilised land area, yields and productivity. This results in both risks and opportunities through the varied effects of heat and cold, and wetness and drought.

Some examples of evidence that illustrates risks for Scotland include:

• Excess waterlogging has been shown to be a greater current risk than water or heat stress for wheat yield in Scotland. Analysis using climate projections also shows existing good quality land would become less suitable for arable uses due to drought risk.
• During the hot dry summer of 2018 malt barley supply to Scotland’s distilling and brewing sectors was impacted by quality and yield issues due to drought. Low flows and higher water temperatures also impacted fermentation, cooling and overall whisky quality, with production at some distilleries halted for several weeks, significantly affecting one of Scotland’s major export industries.
• Increased soil moisture deficits and variability in summer rainfall are increasing pressures for irrigation in eastern Scotland, especially during drier summers.
• A significant proportion of agricultural land in Scotland has been impacted by fluvial flooding in recent years, especially on the floodplains of major rivers such as the Tay and Tweed.
• The area of best quality agricultural land at risk from fluvial flooding in Scotland is projected to increase by 26% by the 2050s and 31% by the 2080s under a +2°C at 2100 scenario (based upon the present area at risk and a 1:75 return period event).
• For forestry, increased drought risk in central and eastern Scotland will affect growth and timber quality and result in more drought-tolerant species having a competitive advantage over Sitka spruce, with impacts on oak and beech also projected to be severe.

SCCAP2 reaffirms the importance of Scotland’s Land Use Strategy for adaptation planning. Work is also in progress to update the Land Capability for Agriculture classification system based upon climate change data from UKCP18 to provide a basis for land use planning. Increasing awareness of wildfire risk is also reflected in policy developments, although this is much more evident in the forestry sector than for agriculture. These include ongoing developments for best practice in fire risk reduction, as represented by regional wildfire networks and national fora such as the Scottish Wildfire Forum.

While opportunities are possible (such as potentially longer growing seasons), these are not currently being realised due to adaptation barriers, hence this risk increases from medium at present to high in future, with a significant adaptation gap, especially for agriculture. Because of the significant lead time to develop and implement actions in the land use sector, more action is needed. However, important knowledge gaps also remain which highlight the importance also of continuing research on adaptation strategies.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

More action is especially required to determine best use of land in terms of capability to provide different functions and services. This will require a more integrated approach to strategic land use planning, bringing together both climate change adaptation and mitigation. In terms of adaptation planning, there may need to be critical decisions made on the long-term sustainability of some types and modes of agricultural production in their current locations, or whether investment should be moved to new areas that are likely to be more climate resilient in the longer term. This challenge emphasises the importance of recognising that agriculture and forestry enterprises are businesses.

Development of an effective strategy to address the historical productivity gap in agriculture would be beneficial. This could include skills, training and knowledge exchange (noting schemes such as Farming for a Better Climate and Monitor Farm Scotland), rural infrastructure and connectivity and delivering research and development at farm level. A major motivation should be to better link adaptation and mitigation across the land use sector, including a combined pathway to Scotland’s 2045 Net Zero emissions target. Net zero measures include sustainably increasing crop productivity and livestock grazing intensity to make space for woodland expansion and bioenergy crops on former agricultural land. The challenge is therefore how to achieve this in a changing climate on suitable land that does not introduce additional risks.

One of the solutions to manage the risks associated with climate change would be crop diversity, which may conflict with the assumed land optimisation agenda for Net Zero. However, there are also considerable synergies that can be delivered in improved use and management of land (such as low carbon farming, improved nitrogen-use efficiency, and enhanced soil quality measures) to deliver combined production and Net Zero goals whilst also aiming to avoid negative consequences. Other areas to consider that could help to mitigate the risk to, and potentially enhance, productivity include integrated soil and water management, flood risk management, encouraging innovation and diversification, further research and better coordination between Government and the land-use sector. Further details on each of these is given in the Technical Chapter cited below.

N7. Agriculture

Summary of risk definition and description

Pests and invasive species have negative impacts on species and habitats and involve native and non-native species respectively. Pathogens are native or non-native species that cause disease and can include their vectors (such as insects). Many of the drivers of change and adaptation options for native pests and pathogens also apply to INNS, hence information provided here is highly relevant to both. The relationship with climate depends on the individual pest or pathogen but includes maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity and potentially wind direction. Pests, pathogens, and INNS present serious risks to agricultural productivity, with consequences for livelihoods and businesses. Large scale outbreaks or invasions may also have ramifications for food security (H9).

Specific examples of pests, pathogens and INNS affecting agriculture in Scotland that are linked to climate change include:

• Viruses such as Bluetongue, which are expected to increase. A recent study suggests that by the 2080s under a high-emission scenario all areas of Scotland except the Highlands could be warm enough for rapid spread of this virus.
• Warmer temperatures increasing risks of pathogens such as Zebra chip (Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum) which can damage crops such as potato, and Phytophthora infestans which causes severe problems with late potato blight. Potato cyst nematode (PCN) populations are also expected to increase in Scotland due to warmer temperatures.
• Increased presence of invasive New Zealand flatworms which have now become widespread in Scotland, and prey on native earthworms with the potential for significant detrimental effects on agricultural production.
• Increased risks from parasites for livestock due to warmer wetter winters remains a major concern, and although more evidence is becoming available there are still important knowledge gaps.

The risk is assessed as increasing from medium at present to high in the future. Current risk assessment procedures provide some adaptive capacity that can reduce this risk but there is still scope for more urgent action to improve preparedness, especially considering recent analysis showing that INNS is one of the top five threats to Scotland’s natural environment, with estimates of the economic cost of INNS being in the region of £0.24 billion per year. There are commitments in SCCAP2 to develop and expand the knowledge base further. However, current strategies do not include consideration of future climate risks including the potential impacts of up to 4°C of global warming at 2100.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Beneficial actions could include:

• Further development of international monitoring initiatives, surveillance, risk assessment procedures and biosecurity measures.
• Further expanding the uptake of Integrated Pest Management rather than rely on current voluntary uptake schemes.
• Further assessment of climate factors in risk assessments would be beneficial for early warning.
• Quantitative analysis of climate change on crop pathogens remains limited and a more systematic programme of analysis would help to inform development of disease management plans.
• Improved monitoring of pest and disease levels in Scotland’s crops and livestock could be used to provide more up to date advice to growers, including best practice guidance on pest and pathogen biosecurity and management strategies.
• Identification of plants and animals with greater natural resistance may be used in breeding programmes.

N8. Forestry

Summary of risk definition and description

The definition and assessment of risk is the same as for agriculture in the previous section (N7). Pests, pathogens, and INNS present serious risks to forest productivity, with consequences for livelihoods and businesses, and for the multiple ecosystem services that forests provide. Due to the combined effect of climate and other risk factors like changing trade patterns, the magnitude of this risk is increasing, with a projected change from medium at present, to high across the UK in the future, particularly for higher levels of warming. Current management of forests limits the impacts at present, but the scale of climate change could see new threats emerging.

Specific examples of pests, pathogens and INNS affecting forestry in Scotland that are linked to climate change include:

• Ramorum disease (Phytophthora ramorum), a fungal pathogen which has continued to spread especially in south-west Scotland and areas with high moisture levels (see case study 1),
• Dothistroma needle blight has continued to spread north, in particular affecting east and north Scotland and posing a risk to commercial forestry.
• For softwood forestry production, bark beetles present an increased threat through damage to tree health and timber quality, notably the great spruce bark beetle which preys on spruce and pine and has become established in southern Scotland.
• Based upon population increases in recent decades, further trends towards warmer winters are expected to increase damage from deer, particularly where numbers are not controlled at a sustainable level. This includes both risks from native species and problems related to the spread of INNS, notably muntjac and sika deer.

SCCAP2 highlights the importance of increased biosecurity specifically for forestry pests and pathogens, which links with the scope of Scotland’s Forestry Strategy, although more detailed adaptation actions that go beyond existing initiatives remain to be developed. SCCAP2 also notes a new potential future indicator to record absence of INNS, as a complement to the current indicator on presence of INNS.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

More action and research to enable cross-sectoral co-ordination and surveillance would be beneficial, especially focussed on the following issues:

• Surveillance and modelling for emerging risks and further modelling of risk reduction measures for pests, pathogens and INNS.
• Further assessment of climate factors in risk assessments to assist early warning.
• Better understanding of current and future and improved biosecurity, especially at ports of entry.
• Changes to plant purchasing and sourcing practices to highlight the importance of secure sources and certification.
• Increased emphasis on disease and pest resilience.
• Further investigation of management initiatives to enhance resilience, such as diversification.
• Improved knowledge exchange with land managers, especially where the goals for forestry are multifunctional and not just related to production.

Case study 1: Phytophthora ramorum

Phytophthora ramorum is a fungal-like organism that causes the death of a wide range of trees and shrubs. First found in Scottish plant nurseries in 2002, Ramorum disease is causing extensive damage and mortality to larch trees and other plants, mainly in the wetter west of Scotland. Its name is literally translated as ’the plant-destroyer’ and it has been responsible for some of the worst plant disease epidemics in history.

Phytophthora ramorum spores can be spread via wind-driven rain. When they land on a leaf, they grow into the tree by breaking down the cell walls in the leaf. This leads to the initial blackening symptoms. It then grows within the tree and blocks its water transport system, leading to dieback and eventual death. While this process is happening, the pathogen will also be spreading onto other nearby trees and shrubs. Climate projections suggest a further increase in favourability for this disease in future.

An area in south west Scotland at the heart of a major surge of Phytophthora ramorum on larch in 2013 was designated* as a Management Zone (see Scottish Forestry map). Within this zone the disease was too advanced to stop its spread, so efforts have focused on tackling new outbreaks in Scotland outside the Management Zone where Ramorum has not yet been detected in over 90% of larch. This illustrates why continued control actions are necessary to slow down the rate, extent, and severity of disease expansion.

* The Plant Health (Forestry) (Phytophthora ramorum Management Zone) Order 2014

Source: CCRA3 Technical Report, Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, Scottish Forestry, Woodland Trust

N9. Agricultural and forestry productivity

Summary of risk definition and description

This opportunity includes climate related developments for new species and varieties, and the potential for movement of existing species from one UK country or region into another. In each of these cases, agricultural or forest productivity may be enhanced.

Future climate change, especially warming, will enhance climate suitability for new crops, although there is limited evidence available to assess the magnitude of potential opportunities. There is increasing interest in using intercropping (using complementary plant relationships to enhance productivity or reduce inputs) for climate adaptation. A field trial site in eastern Scotland evaluated use of mixtures of winter barley and spring barley compared to equivalent monocultures and found overall grain yields significantly higher for the cultivar mixtures.

For forestry, trees that are cold-limited and presently restricted to lowland areas will have an increasingly suitable area in a warming climate, including both ‘productive’ species, and those which are valued for other properties such as for woodcraft and amenity value. Further opportunities for expansion of established species such as Douglas fir and sycamore are likely, and fast-growing species that are selected for bioenergy sources (such as black poplar) will also benefit from warming.

The level of opportunity is assessed to increase from medium at present to possibly high in future, although evidence is rather limited. Much of this opportunity remains unrealised, possibly due land use decision making at multiple levels of society with, for example, climate change ‘resilience’ being interpreted as maintenance or enhancement of current production systems. Therefore, it is recommended as a priority topic for further investigation.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Currently crop breeding mainly focuses on yield and disease resistance, and the multiple effects from climate change are not generally considered. More detailed scoping and investigation of opportunities is required that is also consistent with changing patterns of land capability and crop suitability across Scotland. A major gap in knowledge and knowledge exchange appears to exist for opportunities for fruits, vegetables and horticultural crops in a future climate. Exploring new opportunities to meet demand for local produce would be beneficial, and there are also important cultural interactions with growing diverse local crops that could be further supported. More systematic investigation would be beneficial, including outreach activities and collation of existing and new knowledge on species and cultivars, and innovative cropping/silviculture systems.

N10. Aquifers and agricultural land

Summary of risk definition and description

This risk considers the threat that saline intrusion from sea level rise causes for coastal aquifers and agricultural land (risks to habitats and species from saline intrusion/sea level rise are referred to in N11 and N17). The risk is currently low at present for Scotland and most likely to remain low in future unless a much greater rate of sea level rise was to occur than most estimates expect. Current risk management procedures should remain adequate to adapt to the risk subject to further review. For Scotland there is a lesser risk due to reduced exposure, both because surface water resources dominate over groundwater resources, and because relative sea level rise has been generally lower due to local land uplift. At present, less than 1% of all failures to meet water quality standards were due to saline intrusion in Scotland, hence the low-risk status at present. However, evidence is limited, and continuation of a ‘watching brief’ is recommended.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

This would be an appropriate risk to further investigate the operational use of adaptation pathways as related to changes in sea level rise, precipitation patterns, and safe abstraction rates. Continuing to monitor the impact on aquifers will help to assess whether risks are increasing. Better storage and use of excess winter rainfall and other methods to maximise the sustainable use of surface water resources (such as rainwater harvesting and on-farm reservoirs) could also act to conserve groundwater resources at a sustainable level and mitigate against saline intrusion.

N11. Freshwater species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

Freshwater habitats are particularly vulnerable to reduced water availability and higher water temperatures because of climate change. Freshwater species and biodiversity are also highly sensitive to the direct and indirect effects of temperature. These risks could lead to aquatic species exceeding their thermal tolerance or bring about detrimental habitat changes which can result in loss of sensitive species and changes in phenology and species composition. There are also potential risks related to saline intrusion and coastal flooding on freshwater species (see N10 and N17), the magnitude of which is dependent on local conditions.

Higher temperatures can also directly or indirectly increase the possibility of water quality issues, for example by increasing the rates of biological and chemical processes, especially algal growth rates and nutrients. Additional complexity arises because climate change interacts with other stressors, such as nutrient enrichment, to affect the state of freshwater ecosystems.

There is increasing evidence of changes occurring in Scottish freshwaters because of climatic changes. In the Scottish Highlands and Cairngorms, the changing extent and depth of snow cover can influence hydrology and ecology, with maximum peak flows occurring earlier in the winter season, and potentially higher peak flows and flashier hydrological regimes due to more direct runoff in sensitive catchments (depending on other changes in seasonal precipitation).

The timing of salmon migration in rivers has been found to be correlated with freshwater temperatures. In Scotland, the day of the year by which 25% of salmon smolts have migrated has advanced by about 1.5 days per decade over the last 47 years. Salmonid species also have limited capacity for adaptation of their upper temperature tolerances to warming. Climate impacts upon Scotland’s Atlantic salmon populations are of both national and international importance since these stocks account for approximately 75% and 30% of estimated UK and European salmon production, respectively. Additionally, climate change impacts are highly relevant to the sport fishing industry, which contributes around £113 million per year to the Scottish rural economy.

Modelling of future changes in water temperatures for Scottish rivers has shown that a 1°C rise in maximum air temperature could result in maximum water temperature increases of between 0.4 and 0.7°C in summer, and changes of between −0.02 and 0.36°C in winter. River temperatures in the north and north-west of Scotland and the Cairngorms were found to be most sensitive to air temperature variation.

At present, given the available evidence, the magnitude of current and future risk is judged to be medium by the 2050s. However, with increasing volumes of evidence on specific impacts and sensitive species, this risk could increase. The magnitude is scored as high for the 2080s under a +4°C at 2100 scenario, due to the likelihood of greater changes in water temperature, river flows and water quality. Given the incomplete knowledge of climate impacts on freshwater ecosystems, and the shortfall in adaptation measures, there is a need for more action combined with further investigation on the scale of risk and effectiveness of these measures.

SCCAP2 highlights several actions specific to this risk:

• A view that the beaver (protected by European law since May 2019) should be allowed to expand its range naturally, since their role as ‘ecosystem engineers’ could contribute to ecosystem adaptation to climate change, via wetland habitat creation, and enhancing both habitat and biodiversity. The presence of beavers can also alleviate flooding, improve water quality and bring socioeconomic benefits.
• Funding and support for projects that work with natural processes to manage flood risk, ecosystem status, and ecosystem services. An example is the Eddleston Water Project, managed by the Tweed Forum, monitoring the impacts of wetlands, woodlands, ponds and leaky barriers on flood risk (case study 2).
• Creation of a Water Environment Fund, to ease pressures on imperilled species, such as the Atlantic salmon.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

A clear mechanism that accounts for the consequences of higher water temperature in meeting the Water Framework Directive (WFD) targets (and whatever their successors will be across the UK following exit from the European Union) would be beneficial. Assisted natural recovery and weir removal can benefit habitats and enhance ecological resilience. Flood embankment removal, re-meandering and increasing river channel length in active channels can provide habitat and ecological resilience, although these are less likely to be as effective under low flow conditions. Small, upstream waterbodies could be especially targeted for management, given their connectivity to the wider catchment, and the potential for downstream impacts.

Case Study 2: The Eddleston Water Project: Using Natural Flood Management (NFM) measures to reduce flood risk and improve habitats at a catchment scale

Started in 2010, the Eddleston Water project studies the effects of NFM on reducing flood risk and improving habitats at a time of rapid climate change. The project is a partnership initiative led by Tweed Forum, with the Scottish Government, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and University of Dundee.

Working with 20 farmers, the project has implemented measures to slow water flow from the hills, create temporary floodwater storage areas and reconnect the river with its floodplain:

• Re-meandered 3km of river.
• Installed 116 high-flow log structures.
• Created 28 storage ponds.
• Planted over 330,000 native trees.

These measures have resulted in increased flood peak lag times, reduced peak flows, and decreased the frequency of high flows. NFM measures have also provided additional benefits for climate regulation, biodiversity, aesthetic appeal, recreation, and improved water quality:

• Re-meandering the channel increased the area and diversity of habitats, with an increase in overall species richness. Aquatic invertebrates rapidly recolonised the new extended lengths of channels, which have also increased areas of habitat suitable for spawning salmon and parr.
• In addition to almost £1 million of flood damages avoided by the impact of NFM features already installed, the value of other ecosystem services associated with these NFM features are estimated at £4.2 million (Net Present Value over 100 years) and at £17.7 million for an additional modelled NFM scenario that would also deliver nearly £3 million of flood damages avoided.
• Cost-benefit analysis of the modelled impact of extensive tree planting on peak river flows under different climate change projections also show positive results.

Further information and updates are available on Tweed Forum’s website.

Source: Tweed Forum / Image © Tweed Forum

N12. Freshwater species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate change is likely to affect pests, pathogens, and INNS through changing temperatures, which affect their distribution and spread and the rate at which they displace native species. The impact of an increase in pests, pathogens and INNS on freshwater ecosystems are like the impact on other assets outlined earlier in this document (see N2, N7 and N8), including competition with native species, predation, introduction of disease, harmless airborne pathogens becoming more infectious and habitat alteration, which can lead to increased river flooding and economic costs. The risk to freshwater ecosystems was not included separately in CCRA2 but this has been re-assessed due to increasing evidence of how climate change could affect freshwater species, and that there are indications that the number of INNS is likely to increase in future.

In Scotland, 26% of the top 50 INNS affect freshwater. About 35% of all freshwater habitat features have INNS as a pressure, and many of these habitats are in an unfavourable overall condition, making them more susceptible to invasion. The current and future risk is assessed as medium Scotland, and the likelihood of increased arrivals of pests, pathogens, and INNS to the UK in the future, and the potential role of climate change in facilitating their establishment and spread means more action is needed, particularly to improve capacity for rapid detection. In 2018, the Scottish Government set up the four-year Scottish Invasive Species Initiative (SISI) to tackle INNS alongside rivers and water courses in northern Scotland, focusing particularly on Giant hogweed, Japanese knotweed, Himalayan balsam, American skunk cabbage, White butterbur and the American mink.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

These risks are not likely to decrease in the next five years and, given the environmental and economic benefits of taking early action, increasing monitoring and surveillance would be beneficial. There is an economic case for further uptake of existing adaptation measures to prevent introduction and establishment, rather than attempt to mitigate spread and address impacts. Other possible adaptation options include enhancing biosecurity measures; monitoring and enforcing of legislation; banning or restricting the possession, sale and release of other species; support for further research aimed at developing effective eradication methods, and rapid response for early invasion.

N13. Freshwater species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

As for terrestrial habitats (N3), it is expected that species will move and/or expand their ranges northwards or to higher altitudes to colonise new areas. Opportunities to freshwater habitats from new species colonisations can include enhanced biodiversity, which supports a range of ecosystem services, particularly cultural ones such as recreation (including angling, and enjoyment of wildlife).

However, the opportunities from climate change are assessed as low for Scotland, both currently and in the future, as there is low evidence to date, and climate change is likely to a play smaller part in the benefits of colonisation compared to other factors. Many of the opportunities for freshwater species and habitats do not come directly from climate change, but from human activities and trade, thus they have a low magnitude score and sustaining current action is recommended.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Many of the adaptation actions that are taken to combat the risk to freshwater species (N11) could also facilitate the arrival and establishment of new species, as well as benefiting existing native species. Maintaining current adaptation as detailed in risk N11 is considered to be sufficient, unless there is a desire to promote any particular opportunities, such as the arrival of rare and/or iconic species, in which case specific actions might be needed.

N14. Marine species, habitats, and fisheries

Summary of risk definition and description

Marine ecosystems are impacted by climate change through both direct and indirect effects on the distribution and abundance of species, including plankton, shellfish, finfish, marine birds, and marine mammals. Dominant and keystone species and priority habitats of high biodiversity value may also be negatively affected. Climate related changes in Scottish seas include a warming trend, variations in salinity, deoxygenation, changes in stratification (mixing of shallow warmer and deeper cooler waters) and acidification. Changes in fisheries policy, international trade and access to markets resulting from the UK’s departure from the EU is also likely to have major implications for how the fishing industry adapts to climate change.

This risk topic covers all negative impacts, except for pests and pathogens (N16), below the intertidal zone. It is one of the largest risks in the CCRA and the evidence now indicates that more action is required.

Examples of impacts for Scotland include:

• Changes in ocean temperatures, circulation and salinity are very likely to be causative factors in the decline of Atlantic salmon, which has high economic and cultural value.
• The decline in extent of priority seabed habitats (such as seagrass, flame shells and mussel beds), especially in parts of western Scotland and the Moray Firth, has been potentially attributed to climate effects alongside other factors such as overfishing and pollution.
• For cold-water corals and maerl beds, ocean acidification has potential to cause significant corrosion damage. Summer warming could exceed the thermal tolerance of the main reef-forming cold-water coral, Desmophyllum pertusum, at the Mingulay reef complex off north west Scotland.
• Modelled predictions for Laminaria hyperborea (the dominant habitat-forming kelp species in Scotland), showed northward expansion, coupled with significant loss of suitable habitats at southern range margins.
• Modelling of coralline algae in Scottish waters predicts large scale spatial declines in distribution related to acidification impacts, ranging from 38% decline under a low emissions scenario to 84% decline under a high emissions scenario, with the most rapid rate of decline leading up to 2050.

Scotland’s National Marine Plan considers how the marine environment can be best planned to ensure management takes an adaptive approach. The additional 2020 designation of four new Nature Conservation Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and 12 Special Protection Areas (SPAs) will extend protected area coverage of Scottish seas to 37%, with the aim of further decreasing existing pressures and to enhance overall resilience. The magnitude of risk increases from medium at present to high in future, although uncertainties are present due to multiple risk factors and the interconnectivity of marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, there is confidence that major changes will occur to the marine environment under both +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenarios, and there is high potential for significant thresholds to be crossed causing irreversible changes, hence more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

While high importance is placed on the health and sustainable condition of the marine environment in Scotland, further action is required to enhance and protect marine habitats, and to urgently reduce fishing pressures so that there is more scope to maintain fisheries at a sustainable level despite the increased challenges from climate change. As significant change is already occurring, these actions are very likely to have short-term as well as long-term benefits, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services including fisheries.

Additional actions which would be beneficial for this risk include:

• Further development and regulation of the MPA network as associated with present biodiversity requirements and expected future shifts in species distributions.
• Further reduction of non-climate pressures, such as overfishing and pollution, to maximise potential for species and habitat resilience.
• Further development of habitat restoration initiatives.
• A clearer assessment and implementation of sustainable fisheries yields in the context of present and future climate change.
• Improved monitoring schemes to better assess progress on biodiversity and fisheries goals.
• Further research on the climate sensitivity and interactions of plankton to fisheries, seabirds, and mammals.
• Further research on the sensitivity of UK aquaculture species to multiple climate change drivers.

N15. Marine species, habitats, and fisheries

Summary of risk definition and description

This topic assesses climate related opportunities in the marine environment arising from the arrival of warm water species into Scottish waters, including changes in biodiversity and fisheries. Currently, there are also no discernible differences that reflect how this opportunity could be realised specifically in Scotland compared to other UK nations, but one potential example includes recolonisation of the northern North Sea by Northern hake.

As risk N14 has shown, there are major changes expected in the marine environment, meaning the level of opportunity may increase from medium at present to high in future, although there is considerable uncertainty. Much of this opportunity currently appears unrealised, therefore further investigation is recommended to improve adaptive capacity for this topic.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

For marine biodiversity, further investigation is especially linked to developing the role of MPAs to maximise opportunities to enhance biodiversity value, including enhanced monitoring of species and habitat changes. For fisheries, opportunity would arise through assessments linked to improved data on current and projected movements of key species together with sustainable yield assessments.

N16. Marine species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

This topic assesses pests, pathogens, and INNS for the marine environment. As with other risks to the marine environment, there is considerable uncertainty for this topic particularly for pathogens. This risk is assessed as increasing from medium at present to high in future. The inter-connectivity of oceans and seas mean that the diffusion of pests, pathogens, and INNS is less constrained than on land, and the potential risk is exacerbated by globalisation of trade and travel, particularly shipping. Current risk assessment procedures provide some adaptive capacity that can reduce this risk, but there is an urgent need for more action to improve preparedness and address some of the key uncertainties.

Analsysis is largely based at the UK level, but examples of relevance to Scotland include:

• Increasing impacts from viruses, fungi, and bacteria. Fish gill disease can occur from parasite, virus, or bacterial sources, and elevated temperatures and high salinity are noted as exacerbating risk factors. This is a notable problem for aquaculture, which is planned to expand in Scotland. Viral infections are also known to affect Atlantic salmon.
• The impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on aquaculture due to the use of antibiotics in feedstuff to control bacterial infections. Analysis has shown an association between aquaculture-related AMR and climate warming, likely due to the increased virulence of pathogens at higher temperatures and associated increased use of antibiotics to protect against fish mortality.
• Expansion of Pacific oyster populations in Scotland by the 2080s due to rising temperatures, with large increases in suitable habitat in the Inner Hebrides potentially threatening native oysters. This is an example where expansion may be perceived as an opportunity by one sector (shellfish aquaculture) and a risk by another sector (biodiversity).

SCCAP2 identifies that Marine Scotland will continue to review how it approaches INNS management, including partnership working to minimise the threats posed by INNS. The National Marine Plan for Scotland also establishes a general policy framework for these actions linking biodiversity, fisheries and other sectors. SCCAP2 also notes a new potential future indicator to record absence of INNS as a complement to the current indicator on presence of INNS.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Pest and pathogen species and INNS, once established, are very difficult and costly to eradicate in the marine environment. This means that enhanced prevention through biosecurity regulations and best practice have the greatest benefits in reducing risk. At a more local level, there are very likely to be benefits from enhanced engagement and knowledge exchange with community groups and practitioners. Additional actions can include improvements in:

• Collection of long-term data to better understand how marine pests, pathogens and INNS are affected by extreme events, climate variability and climate change.
• Surveillance, horizon scanning and modelling capability for INNS and pathogens, including through international collaboration.
• Biosecurity awareness and promotion of best practice across all relevant sectors including in habitat enhancement, recovery, restoration and creation.
• Enhanced emphasis on prevention measures, including implementing action plans for priority pathways identified through risk assessments.
• Public awareness, including further use of citizen science.
• Understanding of factors that contribute to disease-resistant organisms.
• Understanding and contingency planning for emergent risks, especially for novel pathogens.
  

N17. Coastal species and habitats

Summary of risk definition and description

Coastal habitats occur at the boundary of terrestrial and marine environments and include both intertidal and supratidal environments, notably saltmarsh, machair, shingle, sand dunes, saline lagoons and sea cliffs. Scotland is internationally recognised for its coastal habitats and species, and these provide a major contribution to national identity. In addition to their biodiversity value, coastal habitats provide many ecosystem services, such as flood and erosion protection, fisheries, climate regulation, tourism opportunities, and interaction of the natural environment with cultural heritage. This assessment covers both coastal erosion and flooding together, recognising that they are interrelated and that changes in one type of hazard can affect the other and the resultant risks. Although risks predominate, there are also opportunities for habitat creation and species gains depending on habitat type, location, magnitude of climate change and sea level rise, and management response.

There is much evidence that emphasises the high urgency of this risk. There is now increased recognition that coastal impacts associated with sea level rise are a risk for Scotland. 78% of the coast is considered ‘hard or mixed’ (with low erosion rates), 19% is ‘soft or erodible’, whilst 3% has artificial defences. Scotland’s coastal change assessment Dynamic Coast (Insight 1) has found that:

• Since the 1970s, 77% of the soft or erodible coast in Scotland has remained stable, 11% has accreted (advanced), and 12% has eroded.
• Since the late 19th century, accretion has reduced by 22%, while there has been a 39% increase in the extent of erosion, and a doubling of average erosion rates from 0.5 to 1.0m per year.
• Larger shifts in the balance of erosion and accretion are found particularly on Scotland’s east coast, Solway Firth area and localised areas on the west coast, notably the Western Isles which are important for their distinctive machair habitats.

Risks from both erosion and flooding will be greater for locations that are more exposed or more susceptible to extreme storms, with low-lying coastal dunes, machair and salt marshes at higher risk.

Flooding can result in negative and positive effects depending on the habitat and circumstances in any given location. It can also affect coastal species and habitats through frequency of saline inundation (see N10 and N11). Based on indicative analysis, many designated conservation sites are at risk of more frequent coastal flooding (1:75 year or greater), as demonstrated in figure 4:

Figure 4: Increase in designated areas at significant risk of coastal flooding (frequency of 1 in 75 year or greater) for Scotland, including +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenarios with low population. The risk is assessed to areas to landward of coastal defences but does not include changes in inundation frequency and associated risk for habitats on seaward side (reproduced from Natural Environment and Assets technical chapter).

Habitat quality is also an issue. In Scotland, Water Framework Directive (WFD) status for saltmarsh has not yet been completed, however previous surveys of sites greater than 3ha showed that 67% of all sites and 69% of Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) failed their condition assessment. For machair habitats, future biodiversity will strongly depend on water management, effective drainage and prevention of sea water intruding due to dune systems being breached, for which risks will especially increase due to ongoing sea level rise and changes in the occurrence of extreme events.

There are opportunities to manage the risk which have in part already been initiated. Areas of accretion which represent habitat creation opportunities are localised but include estuaries such as the Firth of Tay. Scotland now has several examples of managed realignment. Habitat creation schemes at Nigg Bay and Skinflats both aim to remedy historic losses from land reclamation, whilst Black Devon Wetlands addresses future coastal squeeze losses. 72.5ha of intertidal habitat has been created to date in Scotland, and further opportunity areas for habitat creation and natural flood management have been identified. Artificial supply of sediments (which, if depleted, can exacerbate erosion) has now been implemented at several sites, including for salt marsh restoration at realignment sites and to remedy coastal erosion.

The risk is assessed as increasing from medium at present to high in future as it is especially influenced by the rate and magnitude of sea level rise, which the most recent assessments indicate may be occurring at a higher rate and magnitude than assumed for CCRA2. At present, adaptation responses are inadequate to match the scale of the risk or even to realise potential opportunities for habitat creation. Therefore, this topic remains a priority for more policy action.

Insight 1: Scotland’s Dynamic Coast

The Dynamic Coast project is a pan-government partnership that has established an evidence base of national coastal change via the National Coastal Change Assessment (NCCA).

To date Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) have been produced for only short sections of the Scottish coast, and with some of the data used lacking currency, this limits their utility for informed coastal management. Consequently, the Dynamic Coast project was commissioned by the Scottish Government (via CREW) and supported by a number of key agencies, to deliver an up-to-date assessment of coastal changes and provide a robust evidence base on which to plan strategically. This has summarised the last 130 years of coastal change across all of Scotland’s erodible shores (beaches, dunes and saltmarshes) and projected the changes forward to 2050.

The project supports existing strategic planning (such as SMPs, Flood Risk Management Planning, Strategic and Local Plans, National and Regional Marine Planning) and identifies those areas which may remain, or may become, susceptible to erosion in the coming decades and require more support in order to enable the development of future management policies and adaptation plans based on a strategic and objective evidence base. The following organisations currently use the Dynamic Coast interactive GIS maps and supporting reports: The Scottish Government, including Marine Scotland and Crown Estate Scotland, Scottish Natural Heritage, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Historic Environment Scotland, Scottish Water, Adaptation Scotland, and others. It is also used by local authorities, developers, landowners and community groups to plan for coastal change. Guidance has also been produced on the implications of Dynamic Coast for development planning.

In 2018 a second phase of research was commissioned to investigate the resilience of Scotland’s natural coastal defences (for example, identifying where low dunes may breach), estimating how future climate change may exacerbate flooding and erosion, and developing risk management, adaptation, and resilience plans. This will inform ongoing development of SMPs and Flood Risk Management Strategies, including further scope for nature-based solutions.

Source: CCRA3 Technical Report – Natural Environment and Assets, Infrastructure, and Health, Communities and Built Environment chapters; Dynamic Coast

Image: Unsplash

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

The assessment indicates that adaptation through effective implementation of nature-based solutions, including managed realignment and habitat restoration, can reduce risks and provide multiple benefits beyond those for species and habitats. Adaptation strategies need to be designed to be more flexible and robust against the wider range of climate change projections, especially for higher rates and magnitudes of sea level rise. Currently most of Scotland does not have a SMP or an equivalent strategic procedure that can embed long-term cross-scale planning into local and regional decision-making.

There also remain many important evidence gaps. Scotland’s mainland and island coastlines are complex, and although monitoring data are available for some locations, it is often lacking at national scale. The next phase of Dynamic Coast research will be strongly reliant on improved data acquisition, to develop robust future erosion projections consistent with the full range of climate change projections for relative sea level rise and other erosion-related parameters. Adaptation policy could be further enhanced by better inclusion of key indicators on coastal change, reflecting not only species and habitat change, but also progress on adaptation responses, such as through realignment schemes, supported by improved monitoring data.

Other areas that could help to mitigate the risk include habitat creation, more integrated approaches to SMPs and other plans, monitoring programmes, and adaptive management and adaptation pathway approaches. Further details on each of these is given in the Technical Chapter cited below.

N18. Natural heritage and landscape character

Summary of risk definition and description

This topic is broadly defined to include risks and opportunities relating to landscapes with an important link to the historic environment and cultural heritage (H11). Future changes to landscape character will occur from a range of natural responses to change climate including biodiversity, soils, geomorphology, hydrological processes, and coastal processes. Landscape character will also be modified by indirect effects of a changing climate, notably through land use change such as new cropping systems.

Recent developments and a greater recognition of landscape character and the impacts of climate change has allowed for a more refined assessment to be made of the risks and opportunities. Notable examples of landscape-scale initiatives in Scotland include the Central Scotland Green Network and initiatives being developed in the Cairngorms National Park. NatureScot intends to deliver a minimum of 15 capital projects across Scotland that improve or create at least 140 hectares of urban green infrastructure. Plans are also being developed to re-appraise climate change effects on landscape character as part of the action plan of collaborative tasks identified by NatureScot and Historic Environment Scotland (HES) through their 2019 joint landscape position statement ‘People, Place and Landscape’ (Insight 2).

Analysis has found that 80 (8.8%) of Scotland’s 900 nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites such as landforms or sediment/rock profiles are at high risk from climate change. Methodologies are now being developed for geoheritage conservation planning which also have important landscape implications, including through recognition of sites of high geodiversity importance. For example, climate change risk assessment in Scotland has been linked to prioritisation of management actions varying from ‘do nothing’ to moving boundaries, rescuing excavations, and posterity recording.

Because of other risks and opportunities interacting at landscape scale, this topic is assessed as increasing in magnitude from medium at present to high in future, especially with higher climate change scenarios. While recent initiatives show how adaptation could be integrated with landscape concepts, evidence is still limited, therefore further investigation and trialling of these approaches is recommended.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Improved collaboration between local and national government in developing a cross-scale planning framework for Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) that integrates climate change responses would be advantageous and could be linked with developments by non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and other pioneering organisations.

Additional beneficial actions would include:

• Further development of joint research programmes and strategies linking the natural environment and cultural heritage, to define and investigate common adaptation outcomes for specific landscape types and locations.
• Further investigation of the role of traditional land management practices for landscape scale adaptive management for both the natural environment and cultural heritage together.
• Enhanced monitoring.
• Use of ‘landscape narratives’ to better understand public perceptions of nature, climate and human-environment relationships together with different adaptation options.
• Support for existing pioneering approaches linking climate-smart adaptation measures with Net Zero carbon emissions planning in the context of national planning frameworks.

Insight 2: NatureScot and Historic Environment Scotland joint landscape position statement

Plans are being developed to re-appraise climate change effects on landscape character as part of a collaborative action plan between NatureScot and Historic Environment Scotland (HES) through their 2019 joint landscape position statement People, Place and Landscape.  

HES and NatureScot have a shared vision that ‘All Scotland’s landscapes are vibrant and resilient. They realise their potential to inspire and benefit everyone. They are positively managed as a vital asset in tackling climate change. They continue to provide a strong sense of place and identity, connecting the past with the present and people with nature, and fostering wellbeing and prosperity’.

Commitments outlined in the joint statement include establishing national and local reporting frameworks that capture landscape’s contribution to the wellbeing and economic prosperity of Scotland’s communities.

Tantallon Castle and the Bass Rock; Source: Historic Environment Scotland; Image: © Historic Environment Scotland

5. Infrastructure

Forth Rail Bridge

Infrastructure is a key enabler of Scotland’s economy and underpins many vital activities. This section uses the latest evidence to update the level of risk and adaptation measures for 13 climate risks, including risks to energy, transport, telecoms, and water infrastructure.

Flooding remains a key risk to infrastructure in Scotland, with little changing since CCRA2. Many high profile events, such as storms Ciara and Dennis, and the 2020 breach of the Union Canal which resulted in significant damage to the Edinburgh-Glasgow rail line have highlighted, with increasing confidence, the magnitude of such risks and their interactions and consequences. However, it is also evident that some limited progress has been made across the infrastructure sector in both assessing and adapting to the risk via a suite of flood protection measures.

Risks to Scotland’s energy infrastructure from extreme weather events such as storms, lightning and high winds require further investigation, along with the risks of extreme heat to transport links, especially railways. While both rail and road agencies have been proactive in implementing adaptation measures on national networks, sustained action is still required, particularly for local roads and smaller rural schemes, and for single points of failure such as bridges.

The interconnected nature of infrastructure systems means that any risk has the potential to have impacts across other infrastructure networks and beyond via cascade failure, the consequences of which can be far reaching social and economic disruption. This interaction between risks is becoming better understood but research is still required. Support from statutory consultees to implement climate risk assessment and adaptation measures may be required, and there is also a need for a coordinated, cross sectoral review of design codes and standards; climate risk guidance; inspections and maintenance guidance and wider relevant industry guidance on risk management to incorporate the latest understanding of climate impacts.

Finally, there will be implications for many of the climate risks detailed in this chapter in relation to achieving Scotland’s target of Net Zero emissions by 2045, with the Scottish Government’s Infrastructure Investment Plan. Building on recommendations from the Infrastructure Commission for Scotland, the Plan sets out the Scottish Government’s long-term vision that infrastructure supports Scotland’s resilience and enables inclusive, Net Zero and sustainable growth. The Plan includes climate change as one of the emerging trends and Net Zero carbon economy is one of the key themes. It also means Scotland now has the widest definition of infrastructure in the UK, and many parts of the world, that includes natural infrastructure. This allows the Scottish Government to take a more holistic view of infrastructure assets and recognise the wider contribution nature can have in creating sustainable places, reducing emissions and improving wellbeing. In particular, the anticipated infrastructure transformation in response to delivering Net Zero goals will encompass significant changes in energy generation and transport (figure 5).

Figure 5: Potential changes associated with Net Zero and implications for UK infrastructure risks (from Infrastructure technical chapter)

Some of the risks and opportunities affecting infrastructure have remained the same, but in some cases their urgency has increased as shown in the table below. Risks to offshore infrastructure from storms and high waves is the only risk to have reduced in urgency.

*These risks were split between hazards rather than infrastructure asset in CCRA2, but overall, the risk levels for each have increased.

There follows a summary of all climate risks for Scotland related to infrastructure.

I1. Infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT)

Summary of risk definition and description

Infrastructure operates as a system of systems. It means that vulnerabilities on one network can cause problems on others, and beyond the infrastructure sector (figure 6). Examples of cascading risks across and beyond the infrastructure sector include coastal flooding causing power infrastructure inundation, power supply interruption leading to impacts on travel and freight operations, or water supply interruptions leading to health and welfare impacts. The high levels of infrastructure construction planned over the next few years presents a major lock-in risk, due to the long lifetime, and the lack of adequate consideration of adaptation presenting a likelihood of facing future climate risks, or difficult or costly retrofits.

Given the complex interdependencies of infrastructure networks a full understanding of the impacts of cascading failures specific to Scotland is difficult to ascertain. However, recent international research has indicated that the vulnerability of interconnected systems may be significantly underestimated. Whilst there are examples of best practice adaptation, these tend to tackle individual risks on individual infrastructure networks, and there is an adaptation shortfall to manage the risk of cascade failure across the sector.

One example of good sub-national practice can be seen in Glasgow City Region, which has seen the creation of ‘Climate Ready Clyde‘, bringing together a number of stakeholders including local authorities, Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), SGN, and the NHS to develop Glasgow City Region’s first Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. This Strategy and Action Plan outlines the processes and early interventions and actions needed to manage climate risks, provides a strategic framework for adaptation, and sets out how the city will deepen and expand collaboration and collective impact between citizens and organisations. Through the partnership, they have worked together on projects with wider infrastructure providers such as Scottish Water and Scottish Power Energy Networks to better understand regional interdependencies on infrastructure, producing new tools and assessments to deepen collective understanding. They have also produced a toolkit for assessing climate risk in built environment and infrastructure projects which includes a specific recommendation to consider cross organisational risks and interdependencies.

Overall, the current magnitude of this risk can be assessed with high confidence, with disruption in urban areas potentially impacting on hundreds of thousands of people. In addition, there may be disproportionate impacts on individuals of similar failures in rural areas, such as from the length of detour associated with disruption to transport infrastructure. There is no systematic national assessment of interdependency risk or a framework to improve resilience at the UK level. The risk is of high magnitude now and in future and more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There are beneficial adaptation actions which can be enacted during the next five years. Common standards of resilience (such as ISO 14091) would assist investment planning and help emergency planners better understand the potential for service disruption from assets in their area. A better understanding of cascade failures and improved arrangements for sharing data and information on critical interdependence risks would significantly reduce the adaptation shortfall and assist in creating the appropriate institutional conditions for adaptation.

Opportunities to address this risk include engaging with local and regional Scottish Resilience Partnerships which bring together regional authorities and organisations including Category One responders and infrastructure providers, to share information across geographical and organisational boundaries. Specialist networking groups such as the Infrastructure Operators Adaptation Forum (IOAF) are important in facilitating discussions between infrastructure organisations and government, raising awareness, promoting collaboration and potentially increasing preparedness to reduce vulnerability. The Scottish Government can play a key role in adopting a systems-based approach to planning for resilience by providing infrastructure operators with information and a regulatory framework that supports adaptation at network level rather than at the level of individual assets.

I2. Infrastructure services

Summary of risk definition and description

River and surface water flooding is an ongoing risk to Scottish infrastructure with continuous new evidence demonstrating the significant magnitude of the threat. The latest research indicates that all infrastructure continues to face an increased risk from surface water flooding with a continuation of the current level of adaptation ambition. Railway lines and stations are also increasingly exposed to river flooding, although the risk of river flooding appears to now be reducing for energy and freshwater infrastructure assets due to adaptation action taken.

Scotland has seen a number of high profile flood events that have impacted infrastructure services, such the impacts of Storms Ciara and Dennis in 2020 which disrupted road, rail, airline and power services. In Scotland, the number and length of infrastructure assets at significant risk of surface water or river flooding is shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Number or length of infrastructure assets currently exposed to ‘significant’ surface water or river flooding in Scotland (from Infrastructure technical chapter)

Extensive modelling of future flood risk to infrastructure has been carried out. In Scotland it is projected that sewage treatment works, railway lines and railway stations will have an increased risk of river flooding. By the 2080s under a +4°C at 2100 scenario, this increase ranges from 5% for sewage treatment works to 70% for railway stations. For surface water flooding under the same scenario, all infrastructure types including power stations and electricity substations, sewage treatment works, railway lines and railway stations are projected to increase in risk compared to the present day, ranging between 27% for sewage treatment works to 64% for railway lines by the 2080s in a +4°C at 2100 scenario.

The current and future magnitude of the risk is high across Scotland. The evidence also highlights that despite progress, particularly through investment in flood defences, there exists an adaptation shortfall across the UK which will require further government intervention to overcome in the next five years. Taken together, this leads to an urgency score of more action needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

The assessment indicates high economic benefits from investing in flood adaptation for infrastructure. There is a need to develop consistent indicators of network resilience to flood risk across all critical national infrastructure sectors and networks. This would allow improvements to be measured over time, enabling better short-term decisions, and in relation to longer-term major risks. Examples of specific adaptation measures that can be implemented to minimise the risk to infrastructure from flooding include bringing forward the adaptation of electricity substations, using adaptation strategies to identify areas of the road network most vulnerable to flooding, and integrating green-blue infrastructure and SuDS.

More generally, there are a range of low-regret measures that have been identified, including:

• Supporting decision making by providing tools and information.
• Screening climate risks (climate risk management) in public and private investments.
• Enabling infrastructure resilience through policy and regulation.
• Encouraging the disclosure of climate risks and uptake in commercial finance.
• Supporting innovative risk spreading (insurance).

I3. Infrastructure services

Summary of risk definition and description

Global mean sea levels are currently rising at an accelerating rate. Coastal erosion and flooding, which have always occurred around the UK, will become worse as sea levels rise. Other socioeconomic changes could also increase vulnerability such as increased development and population in low-lying coastal areas, and the decline of natural buffering systems such as salt marshes, shingle, and sand dunes. Overall, the consequences of coastal flooding in the recent past have been tempered due to improvements in flood defences, together with advances in flood forecasting, warning and emergency response and spatial planning. Despite this, notable instances of coastal flooding have still occurred.

Scotland has significant infrastructure assets located in coastal areas and hence potentially exposed to flooding from the sea (figure 8). Key infrastructure assets located in the coastal zone include power stations, ports, roads, and rail networks. Soft coastline with the potential to erode makes up 19% (3,800 km) of the Scottish coast. Between a half and a third of all coastal buildings, roads, rail, and water networks lie in these erodible sections.

Figure 8: Number or length of infrastructure assets currently exposed to ‘significant’ coastal flooding across Scotland (from Infrastructure technical chapter)

In a +4°C at 2100 scenario with low population growth by 2080, the length of railway track and associated stations exposed to coastal flooding could potentially increase by around 75%, and rail stations by nearly 30%. If erosion rates increase in the future, as expected with climate change, Dynamic Coast 1 and National Flood Risk Assessment are likely to underestimate the extent of assets at risk from future coastal erosion. Large numbers of assets are sited close to potentially erodible coasts, including 1,300 km of roads and 100 km of railway lines. There are assets worth £13.3 billion within 50 metres of the soft coast of which £340 million worth is expected to be threatened by erosion by 2050.

The risk is medium both now and in future, with mean sea level and extreme water levels expected to increase during the 21st century and beyond. Without further adaptation the projected increases in extreme water levels will significantly increase coastal flood and erosion risk. Different infrastructure sectors have different flood and coastal risk management strategies which are highlighted in the Infrastructure technical chapter, alongside the national policies in place that consider coastal change.  

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There is increased understanding that it is unrealistic to promote a ‘hold the line’ policy for much of the coastline (i.e. employing hard or soft engineering to prevent further erosion), and realistic plans to adapt to change are needed. This raises fundamental questions of how to plan future shorelines on the open coast and along estuaries and deliver practical portfolios of adaptation options that are technically feasible, balance costs and benefits, can attract appropriate finance, and are socially acceptable. Analysis suggests that coastal adaptation is an extremely cost-effective response, significantly reducing residual damage costs down to very low levels.

Developing and evaluating alternative adaptation pathways allows flexible responses to be explored in the face of uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways for the long-term planning of flood risk management, first used in developing the Thames Estuary 2100 flood risk management strategy, has been shown to be a promising technique that can be applied more widely. In addition, better quantification on the scale of risk from coastal erosion and flood risk for roads, ports, airports in future climates would be beneficial, along with improved monitoring and evaluation of existing policies to determine to what extent these are managing the risk. Given the uncertainties around sea level rise, ‘what if’ planning for high coastal risk scenarios would be beneficial for understanding what could be done in the event of very high rates of change.

I4. Bridges and pipelines

Summary of risk definition and description

Currently, there are no quantitative projections for climate change impacts on bridges and pipelines, with results limited to the identification of weather events and environmental hazards which give rise to risk, such as rainfall, erosion for pipelines and scour (the eroding of soil around foundations) for bridges. Further research is needed to define links between forecasted risk and impact at local, regional, and national level, including how rainfall and flooding, frequency of severe events, wind, erosion and land and ground movement could affect these assets.

Evidence demonstrating the vulnerability of bridges to climate hazards is more established than for pipelines, including examples of the significant cost of bridge repairs, and cascading impacts such as transport disruption, rupturing of gas pipelines and loss of fibre optics communications. There has also been a trend of extreme rainfall causing increased incidences of the failure of old short-span masonry arch bridges.

In terms of future risk, some modelling has been done which indicates that increased winter precipitation and river flows will increase scour at bridges, potentially increasing the rate of failure to an average of one bridge per year in the UK. Ongoing urbanisation of the watershed is indicated as a cause of increased levels of flooding which could exacerbate risk, especially to short-span bridges over relatively small waterways such as small rivers, streams, and canals. However, detailed analysis has not been carried out and no modelling completed for pipelines at all.

Bridges, long-life infrastructure built with past climates as their basis, are vulnerable to current hazards. While equivalent risks to pipelines are less well-established, these infrastructure assets are often co-located. Although, there have been positive developments in Scotland to improve understanding of the risks to bridges and pipelines, risk magnitude is medium now and in future, and further investigation is still needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

For pipelines potential adaptation measures include improving drainage in areas that regularly flood; monitoring of river and coastal erosion; the development of flood, coastal and updated contingency defence measures. Re-routing lines from high-risk areas, and structural upgrades to existing infrastructure are also potential adaptation strategies.

For bridges, the most significant adaptation is likely to come through changes in maintenance operations, improving collaboration with emergency managers and recognising emergency management as an integral function of managing infrastructure. There are also some adaptation interventions already being implemented around issues such as scour and drainage which would represent a good starting point for a framework to embed adaptation into decisions and investments.

I5. Transport networks

Summary of risk definition and description

Increases in high rainfall combined with periods of dry weather and subsequent cracking are expected to lead to an increase in incidents of slope failure within the transport network. Rainfall is the main trigger of deterioration and extreme weather is expected to increase the rate of these deterioration processes, albeit with some uncertainty. Therefore, the current and future risk magnitude is medium, and more action is needed overall.

There were, on average, 12 earthwork (embankments and cuttings) failures a year across the rail network in Scotland between 2003/04 and 2013/14. Railway cuttings have been identified as a major source of risk, with several high-impact examples of failure. In 2020, in Stonehaven following a severe rainfall event a passenger train hit a landslip and derailed, causing three fatalities. In response, Network Rail launched two taskforces to look at how to prevent future impacts like this, as part of its long-term response to climate change and the challenge of maintaining its massive portfolio of earthworks, many of which date from the Victorian era.

Upland and mountainous areas (such as the A83 road at the Rest and Be Thankful) are more prone to natural slope failures and landslides due to their topography, with many studies are focused on Scotland. Single landslip events in Scotland have been estimated to cause direct costs (such as emergency response and remedial works) between £400k and £1.7m, with direct consequential costs (associated with loss of utility of infrastructure) between £180k and £1.4m for the five case studies assessed.

In future, modelling shows that soil moisture fluctuations will lead to increased risk of failures and is likely to be the most significant geological hazard to UK infrastructure (I7). Wetter climates produce more landslides, with autumn and winter the most likely seasons for these to occur. There are inequalities implications for Scotland, particularly for rural areas where transport infrastructure frequently follows natural features such as steep sided river valleys prone to landslide risk. Underpinned by the 2020 Stonehaven derailment, current and future risk magnitude scores are medium, and while there have been positive developments in Scotland to improve understanding of the risks, more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

It is recognised that historic investment in ageing structures has been insufficient to deliver acceptable levels of risk in the long-term, despite £2.3 billion being spent on renewing civil engineering structures between 2013/14 and 2018/19 in Scotland, England, and Wales. More action to ensure that projected increases in heavy rainfall are factored into long-term renewal programmes would be beneficial, especially for the rail network. Additional adaptation actions include:

• Improved numerical tools for infrastructure asset owners to predict failures.
• Improved instrumentation and monitoring systems to detect pre-failure slope behaviour linked to decision support systems.
• More detailed characterisation of engineered soil assets
• Continued use of slope inspection programs.
• Greater use of soft engineering techniques such as vegetation management to reinforce vulnerable slopes.
• Enhanced maintenance of drainage systems for roads and railways and increasing drainage capacity in new road infrastructure.

The cost of such measures across rail and road networks is usually offset by improvements to repair costs and travel time delays.

I6. Hydroelectric generation

Summary of risk definition and description

Hydroelectric power is vulnerable to both low and extreme high river flows. Low flows reduce power output, whereas extreme high river flows damage generation equipment and associated infrastructure, although moderate high flows have the potential to improve the output. Most of Scotland’s large hydroelectric installations are situated in the Highlands, while smaller schemes are found in both urban and rural areas.

Since the CCRA2 evidence review was undertaken, where this risk was not included, some evidence has come to light showing how weather conditions can affect hydropower. A reduction in all hydro generation in the UK of 7% in 2018 compared to 2017 was in part attributed to lower rainfall. While the reduction in rainfall has not been attributed to climate change, this does give an indication of the magnitude of financial losses from electricity sales associated with this reduction in output, which was in the order of tens of millions of pounds.

The future impact of climate change on hydro output is very much dependent on future patterns of rainfall and temperatures together with changes in the water catchment area. Studies demonstrate the differences in results from the use of both different climate scenarios and different hydrological models. Both winter increases in rainfall and summer droughts combine to have an overall effect on hydro output; different studies have suggested both increases or decreases in total output with 2°C of global warming at 2100, and one study which quantified the effects of a 4°C of global warming at 2100 indicated an overall reduction in hydro power output of 10% by 2050.

In Scotland, the potential for increases in rainfall and flow, changes in peak winter flow and the return period of flood events may impact the effectiveness of existing spillways and weir designs. Run-of river schemes (where little or no water storage is provided) are more vulnerable to climate change compared to impoundment schemes, as they do not have the storage capacity to buffer seasonal changes. The current risk is assessed as low rising to medium in future, but with a high degree of uncertainty, hence further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

For new schemes, ensuring climate impacts are considered in both site selection and design will enable outputs to be maximised under future climate and minimise risks of damage as far as it is possible to protect from high end events. Guidance such as the Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Guide issued by the International Hydropower Association is available to help such assessments. For existing schemes, retrospective climate risk assessments can better inform operational planning and take action to protect assets and the downstream environment from harm during high water flows or flooding.

For existing plants, the suitability of spillways to future peak flow should be ensured and for impoundment schemes to take advantage of higher winter rainfall, increases in reservoir sizes and or turbine capacity may be necessary. There are a set of no-regret adaptation options for high flows via weather and climate forecasting services, for both management of extreme events and early warning, as well as more general reservoir operation. There are also various engineering options for additional spillways and measures such as fusegates which can be added to address high flow risks. There are more structural options to address changes in flood return period and peak intensity, but these tend to be much more expensive. Turbine upgrades may be more cost-effective than larger structural changes to tackle issues from low flows during periods of drought.

I7. Subterranean and surface infrastructure

Summary of risk definition and description

Ground subsidence is often due to shrinkage and swelling of clay soils due to changes in soil water content, or the collapse of pre-existing cavities such as in areas underlain by soluble rocks, and mine workings. Damage to infrastructure often occurs as a direct result of interaction with vegetation and associated changes in water content. This form of subsidence is regarded as the most damaging geological hazard in Britain today. Transport infrastructure and buried infrastructure such as water, electricity and gas supplies are vulnerable to damage and disruption due to climate change driven subsidence effects.

UK-wide the potential scale of shrink-swell subsidence issues is demonstrated when considering that 10% of clean water treatment works, 15% of small telecommunication masts, 8% of high voltage electricity pylons, 22% of Category 1 rail lines, 29% of major train stations and 9% of the major road network are in high susceptibility areas. Damage due to shrink-swell subsidence is generally less likely in Scotland where there is a lesser prevalence of high plasticity clay soils, although the concentration of abandoned mine workings in southern Scotland should be noted.

The current risk is deemed low, rising to medium in future and confidence in this assessment is also low, with limited information available to assess the extent to which current adaptation will manage this risk in Scotland, hence further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

More detailed information on subsurface composition would assist in predicting future impacts but would be costly to achieve. Quantifying the uncertainty in soil properties would be beneficial. Removal of trees from railway embankments has been shown to reduce shrink-swell movement, though this comes at a cost of reducing the reinforcing effect of tree roots and increases pore water pressure, leading to loss of stability. Increased ground and weather monitoring and the use of real-time decision support tools has been proposed as a potential method to mitigate the risks of shrink-swell.

I8. Public water supplies

Summary of risk definition and description

Scotland faces an increased demand for water in a changing climate. In future it is projected that, under a central population projection with no additional adaptation for a +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenario, a supply-demand deficit (where demand is greater than supply) of between 1,220 and 2,900 Ml per day will occur across the UK, equating to the daily water usage of around 8.3 to 19.7 million people. Despite Scotland having an overall supply-demand balance surplus by both the mid and late-century under these projections, several Scottish water resource zones will be experiencing a deficit (figure 9). There is an assumption that deficits can be resolved by transferring water between regions, but this may be prohibitively expensive in practice and restricted by topography, particularly in Scotland.

Water is often stored in reservoirs, which are vulnerable to high water flows and increased temperatures and can have implications for bank integrity. The magnitude of current risk is low, rising to medium in future. It is suggested that current and announced adaptation will manage risk in Scotland, (though there may be significant risks to private water supplies – see H10), and therefore current action should be sustained.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There is already positive action taking place to help address this risk. SEPA’s Water Supply and Wastewater Sector plan contains a number of aims in relation to managing climate risks, and water companies are investing to improve resilience but it is not clear if this investment will be adequate to address future risks, particularly in the context of a +4°C at 2100 scenario. Overall, the CCRA3 water resources project found that the only scenarios that result in a significant supply-demand balance surplus are the ones in which additional adaptation action is taken to reduce demand.

Climate change projections are presently not used to inform the risk assessment or inspection regimes for reservoirs in Scotland. The routine use of climate projections and their potential impacts on reservoir bunds and spillways during safety inspections and for mid to long term planning would better protect them from failures exacerbated by climate change. Establishing appropriate leakage targets may improve multi-sector resilience and economic efficiency of water and water rights use. There are several options for adaptation too, including tightening building regulations, metering, demand management and drought research all of which can help with this issue.

I9. Energy generation

Summary of risk definition and description

Thermal power generators, including energy from waste plants, sited inland are the main type of generation vulnerable to reduced water supply. These risks arise from restrictions to abstracting or discharging water into freshwater systems during periods of low rainfall in combination with elevated temperatures.

No studies specific to Scotland were found, likely owing to large thermal power generation being located in coastal areas. Projections of future water availability suggest there could be reductions in some catchments in Scotland under a +2°C at 2100 scenario by mid-century, which have implications for the siting of any future thermal generation plant. However, Scotland’s commitment to Net Zero should see a decrease in the use of thermal power generators and therefore reduce the potential risk over time. While the CCRA analysis has mostly focused on risks to the UK’s current energy portfolio, it also highlights that potential future energy generation technologies rely on freshwater availability and considers the risks, including to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), biomass and biofuel production, hydrogen, and possibly shale gas.

Scotland has few major thermal plants sited inland, and therefore the risk is low now and in future. Changes to the energy mix introduced by Net Zero policy could potentially increase this risk if the technologies that are favoured have high water demand; future water availability should be considered in selecting sites for these plants.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

For existing thermal plants, there are low regret adaptation options centred on monitoring of risk levels, including early warning and subsequent emergency management during extremes. Climate projections for future water resources would guide new infrastructure siting and cooling technology choices. The evidence for risks to energy generation due to higher water temperatures and/or reduced river flows should be kept under review, with long-term monitoring of risk levels and adaptation activity and additional consideration of how an expansion in hydrogen and biofuel production would affect vulnerability to reduced water availability.

The most obvious no regret option is for climate impacts on freshwater availability to be considered when siting new water-dependent energy generators. Further analysis of the possible risks with respect to water demand of new generation plant would lead to important adaptation options around siting and technology, and at the very least, the cost implications for water use under a changing climate.

I10. Energy

Summary of risk definition and description

The risks to energy infrastructure from extreme weather are already an issue in the current climate. Examples include: a reduction in the amount of energy generated from thermal generators and solar PV cells (caused by hot temperatures), line faults and increased energy demand (caused by cold temperatures, snow, and ice), damage from debris (caused by wind) and power cuts (caused by lightning). The future risks related to the energy sector are also influenced by the future profile of energy demand and supply, together with the resilience of society and the economy to constraints on or interruptions to supply. Differing generation and supply technologies have their own profile of vulnerability to weather and climate and therefore the balance of these technologies in future will influence the energy sector’s vulnerability to climate change. Infrastructure policies can also have profound impacts on resilience.

Future modelling has been carried out especially on the impacts of temperature. For example, a reduction in output for solar PV of between 1-3% and thermoelectric generation of 5-14% is possible in future due to increasing temperatures, but the ramifications of this are less certain due to the implications of the UK’s Net Zero emissions target on the future energy generation mix. However, the impacts of temperature are expected to be felt in Scotland, which has projected decreases in frost and icing days, which could reduce the risk to the electricity network. Future changes to the impacts of lightning strikes and wind speeds are uncertain and not discernible by nation. There is some evidence that the occurrence of winter storms over the UK could increase, but the magnitude of any such increase differs between sets of climate projections. Therefore, the current and future risk magnitude is high but with significant uncertainty, hence further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

A better understanding of the risks from passing specific thresholds that affect energy supply would be beneficial. For example, ICT supporting telemetry components in the national gas grid have been found to have a maximum operating temperature of 40°C (where external temperature and the load on the asset are contributing factors). Summer operation of some facilities is already being affected and this will be exacerbated by projected increases in summer temperatures.  

Regarding high winds, further investigation of the future risks of damage from falling trees would be beneficial, alongside a watching brief on the evidence regarding potential changes to wind speeds in future due to climate change. Further investigation on activities being implemented to protect assets from increased lightning strikes would also be helpful. Recent years have shown that multiple events (such as concurrent lightning strikes) can have severe knock-on impacts on energy supply, and scenario studies looking at the effects of different hazards (high winds and lightning, or high temperatures and lightning for example) would be prudent.

I11. Offshore infrastructure

Summary of risk definition and description

Offshore infrastructure includes equipment used by the oil and gas industry, wind, tidal and wave energy, and gas pipelines and power cables on or under the seabed. Their vulnerabilities because of storms and high waves include the destabilisation or degradation of mechanical systems and structures (e.g. turbines), reduced energy output and operating periods, damage to cabling systems during storms and prevention of access for maintenance and inspection activities. Although exposure has slightly increased due to the deployment of new windfarms in new regions such as the Moray Firth, the current risk to offshore infrastructure is low, based on good evidence which has not changed much since the previous CCRA.

There is some evidence that changes to sea level rise, wave height and wind speed could exacerbate the above impacts in future. They can also result in sediment transport across the seabed and scour, which can affect the stiffness and stability of wind turbines and damage subsea cables. In the Solway Firth, Dumfriesshire, two wind turbines have been removed due to sediment transport causing a loss of foundation support.

In future, the risk is allocated as medium, however there is less evidence to support this. The risk has been categorised as medium due in part to increasing offshore renewable energy infrastructure linked to Scotland’s Net Zero emissions target, and the presence of a large fleet of oil and gas platforms which may be repurposed for CCS and thus remain operational beyond their original lifespan. There is a data gap on the current failure rates and structural performance for wind turbines, as well as uncertainty about potential future changes in loading and therefore stability and machine degradation. Since offshore infrastructure is designed for 30 – 40 year lifespans, and the consenting period plus construction is five years, decisions now affect the capacity and resilience of offshore infrastructure and energy supply in 2060. The high reliance on offshore wind and subsea cables adds vulnerability to the electricity grid, and resilience of these will be a key factor in achieving Scotland’s Net Zero target.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Potential adaptation measures include changes to the design loads, extreme wave elevation and accessibility of offshore infrastructure for maintenance and crew transfer. Given the anticipated expansion of offshore renewable energy to meet Net Zero emissions targets and current uncertainties about changes in marine conditions, further investigation into the potential changes in wind and wave heights would better inform design and siting choices.

I12. Transport

Summary of risk definition and description

Evidence that demonstrates how extreme temperatures, high winds and lightning strikes can affect the rail, road, air, and water-based transport networks is plentiful. The current risk is medium and future risk is high, and the Infrastructure Technical Chapter states that the risk is not currently being fully managed across the system. Risks to transport infrastructure and associated impacts are included in figure 10.

Figure 10: Summary of recent impacts of lightning and extreme temperatures and wind speeds on Scotland’s transport network.

Modelling also suggests a worsening of many of these risks under future climate change scenarios:

• For rail, there is the potential for an eight-fold increase in the annual cost of buckling and quadrupling of temporary speed restrictions.
• More frequent extreme temperatures are expected to reduce the number of days when railway track maintenance can be undertaken across the UK, with the greatest (threefold) increase in Scotland, and an increase in worker heat stress.
• For roads, climate change hazards have potential to impact services and network users, include increases in extreme summer temperatures and increased wind speeds more frequently exceeding operational limits.
• For air, clear-air turbulence during the cruise phase of flights is projected to increase due to climate change, increasing journey length and fuel consumption.

Ports are not subject to economic regulation. As a result, there is a general lack of data regarding the overall resilience of ports compared to most other regulated sectors, making assessments of current and future risks challenging. There are inequalities implications, particularly for islands, where any disruption to passenger and freight transport via air and sea can leave these communities and economies isolated.

Although there are examples of good practice within individual transport modes and emerging activities taking place, the approach to managing climate risks across transport infrastructure is not comprehensive, and more action is needed. As such, the future magnitude is high but with low confidence at present, as the assessment of impact of risks is variable across the different transport modes. There is currently a lack of quantified projections for the impact of climate change on road infrastructure and operations.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Actions being taken to reduce risk by the rail industry are likely to be reducing vulnerability in some areas, but evidence is currently lacking. This may be due to the current indicators of resilience which may not directly indicate how the physical vulnerability of assets is changing. Enhanced weather incident reporting, asset condition monitoring and revised standards (such as increasing the stress-free temperature of steel rail in line with future climate projections) would help with this gap. It would also be beneficial to undertake a formal assessment of the future electrified transport systems that will be required to meet Scotland’s Net Zero commitments.

For local roads, it is not clear whether there has been a systematic evaluation of climate change risks. Like rail, better indicators of climate resilience for roads could be developed. The same goes for ports and airports, where a lack of observed engagement with the Adaptation Reporting Power process may also be a barrier to adaptation.

For existing infrastructure, improved monitoring and information and improvement of maintenance practices and operations are considered low-regret adaptation options. For new infrastructure, there are opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning and design, to avoid retrofitting later. No regrets options also exist in the form of improved weather and climate services, including early warning systems, which have been found to have high benefit to cost ratios. There are further opportunities through use of digital platforms and remote sensing in real time network management which reduce costs of disruption and thus deliver economic benefits in terms of travel time.

I13. Digital

Summary of risk definition and description

ICT is critical to the operation of wider infrastructure networks as well as underpinning business activities, access to key services and wider communication. Climate related risks have the potential to disrupt the availability and reliability of digital technology via:

• Failure of telecommunications and/or the inability to access affected sites, leading to reduced capacity in a wide range of other essential services.
• Failure of mobile base stations due to power failure because of extreme weather.
• Local outages, which can cause significant disruption in terms of loss of emergency services communications, business revenue and social disruption.
• An increased risk of wind, ice, and snow damage to overhead cables.
• Ground shrinkage because of drought or heatwave can lead to failure of electricity, gas, and water pipes, thereby damaging co-sited ICT infrastructure.
• High summer temperatures, as well as rapid fluctuations in temperature and humidity, pose challenges to data centres, which need to be kept cool to operate. They are also vulnerable to flood, high winds, wildfire and droughts as well as loss of supporting power supply.
• Poorer performance of radio systems due to heavy rainfall.
• Greater international communication disruption due to increases in sea surface temperatures.

Risks to digital associated with climate change are considered to currently be of low magnitude, rising to medium under all climate futures assessed. However, the evidence to support this is of low quality. Outage incidents to networks and services between 2016 and 2017 showed that 1% (5 out of 648) of incidents were caused by severe weather (flood, storms, or snow). In particular, the edges of networks are at risk of failure. They have the least redundancy and are often in remote areas, sometimes with rough terrain and limited access, and take longer to reach and repair after failures. It should be noted that 4% of premises in Scotland are without access to download speeds of 10Mbit per second (average speed of a standard home broadband connection) and 13% are without mobile call service. When this is taken as an indicator of the potential numbers of customers currently on the ‘edges’ of networks (and so more liable to disruption), the magnitude of this risk is higher for Scotland. However, without a better understanding of the exposure of ICT infrastructure across the UK it is difficult to differentiate the magnitude between the devolved administrations, hence further investigation is required to assess how climate change will affect the frequency and magnitude of interruptions to digital services across Scotland.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Currently adaptation appears to be reactive or unplanned due to the short life span of equipment. SCCAP2 includes recognition of the climate risks to digital ICT infrastructure and its importance in delivering resilience. The Scottish Government’s strategic framework for resilient essential services Keeping Scotland Running includes guidance on Building Resilience to a Changing Climate (Adaptation).

Further adaptation would include incorporating digital infrastructure into existing infrastructure climate adaptation plans, recognising the criticality of ICT provision for wider infrastructure and society. Further information is also needed to identify and protect assets at risk of flooding and wildfires together with a better understanding of future impacts on radio communication systems.

6. Health, Communities,
and the Built Environment

High Street, Glasgow

This section summarises the evidence regarding the key risks and opportunities of climate change for the population of Scotland, with a particular focus on health and wellbeing, and on the built environment. The evidence is divided into 13 climate risks and opportunities and the risks are either focussed on climate hazards (for example heat or flooding) that affect multiple sectors, or around particular policy areas (for example health systems or food safety).

The risk of coastal and river flooding to people, communities and buildings remains the most significant risk for the UK. High temperatures are increasingly affecting health and wellbeing, with the frequency and duration of extreme heat episodes expected to increase. Interactions between risks from combined exposures from air pollution, drought and wildfires are increasingly recognised. Climate projections suggest greater sea level rise than had been projected previously. Considerable work has been conducted to enhance both an understanding of coastal risk in Scotland via Dynamic Coast, and policy and strategy development, particularly at the national level.

Some of the risks and opportunities affecting health, communities and the built environment have remained the same compared to CCRA2, but in some cases their urgency has increased as shown in the table below.

It should also be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic may have long term implications for the resilience of the health and social care sector. The pandemic has caused an additional stress on the health and social care system due to increased demand (likely to last until 2022) and additional pressures on local finances (likely to last longer term). More positively, the impacts of COVID-19 may have raised awareness of the importance of understanding major threats that can disrupt lives and livelihoods, including low probability, high impact flood events.

There follows a summary of all climate risks and opportunities for Scotland related to health, communities, and the built environment.

H1. Health and wellbeing

Summary of risk definition and description

Overheating has, falsely, long been perceived not to be an issue for Scotland in the long term resulting from climate change. High temperatures affect a very wide range of health and social outcomes, and there has been a large increase in research on heat effects since CCRA2. Interactions between risks from combined exposures from air pollution, drought and wildfires have been increasingly recognised. There is more evidence about the risks of overheating in buildings and the effectiveness and limitations of strategies for space cooling. There have also been improvements in how to design buildings and use technology that could ensure homes have high levels of thermal efficiency (staying warm in winter while cool in summer), while considering safe levels of moisture and indoor air quality. However, there is still little preventative action being taken to address health risks from overheating in buildings. The restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic may have increased exposure to heat as people had to spend more time indoors during hot weather.

The number and length of heatwave events has increased throughout the UK, and is projected to continue to do so. In addition to the impact of high temperatures on acute mortality (daily deaths), understanding of how high temperatures affect health in other ways has also improved, such as increasing the risk of unintended injury and accidents, impacts on maternal health, mental health, labour productivity and incidence of injury for workers. There is limited evidence regarding overheating in dwellings in Scotland, although one study estimated that upwards of 54% of new build properties experience overheating in the current climate.

Climate change is expected to increase heat-related mortality in Scotland, with projections estimating that heat related deaths will increase to around 70-285 per year by 2050 and 140-390 per year by the 2080s assuming no population growth. Although there is uncertainty about future impacts for Scotland, a study of future heatwaves in Glasgow shows an increase from 0 heatwave days per decade to 5-10 heatwave days per decade in the 2050s, and 10-50 heatwave days per decade in the 2070s, from the baseline period 1981-2010.

The present and future magnitude of this risk is high for Scotland, and more action is needed. The major policy gap across all the UK nations is including measures to prevent overheating in Building Regulations or other housing policy.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

For housing to be suitable for future climates, there is a requirement for coordinated action and optimisation of outcomes against a range of climate and non-climate related objectives. The evidence indicates that decarbonisation and adaptation policies and strategies are not well aligned. There is also a need for cross-departmental policy, and it is important that overheating risks are addressed in all types of buildings where people spend significant time. Recommendations in relation to housing include:   

• A legal standard or regulation should be introduced to address overheating risk for current and future climates at design stage of new build homes or renovations.  
• Ensure that passive cooling measures are prioritised over mechanical cooling where a risk of overheating is identified.  
• Further action is needed to better understand when overheating occurs in existing homes for passive cooling measures and behaviour change programmes to be targeted effectively.

Climate change presents several other risks for housing alongside overheating such as flooding and damp and it is likely to be more effective and less expensive to address all these risks at the same time through retrofitting. Continuous preventative planning to include long term risks from heat would have benefits. Other potential solutions include better heatwave warning systems combined with behaviour change among the public and further interventions by health and social care workers; more investment in adaptive management approaches for heat risks; and improved building design.

H2. Health and wellbeing

Summary of risk definition and description

The key factors associated with this opportunity include the following:

• The physical and mental health benefits of increased physical activity and contact with nature, which are well established. As summer temperatures rise, opportunities for more outdoor activities could increase but at present there is limited evidence of the extent of this.
• Increased time outdoors may increase Vitamin D exposure, which is important for bone health and the immune system.
• Benefits for agriculture and implications for nutrition. Northerly soils typically produce wheat that is higher in selenium (the UK population on average falls below the recommended daily intake), and the introduction of new crops such as soya, lupins, borage, and evening primrose may also have potential to improve nutrition.
• There are no current policies in the public sector to increase the opportunities for health and wellbeing associated with high temperatures.

It should be noted however that the burden of ill health from cold homes remains significant in Scotland and is a priority for public health and local government action. Population ageing is likely to offset some of the benefit from warmer winters for cold-related mortality. The understanding of opportunities that could arise is currently limited and, as such, the opportunity is low in magnitude now and medium in future, and further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There are clearly benefits from further investment in strategies to increase physical activity and mental health and the opportunities for outdoor recreation and active travel. Interventions to enhance opportunities would lead to large economic benefits in terms of societal welfare from: lower resource costs (i.e. avoided medical treatment costs); increased gains in productivity, and the avoided pain or suffering, concern and inconvenience to family and others. A no-regret option would be to investigate these potential benefits and look at the possible interventions to help deliver these.

H3. People, communities, and buildings

Summary of risk definition and description

The risk of flooding to people, communities and buildings is one of the most severe risks from climate hazards for the population, both now and in the future. This risk encompasses flooding from all sources including rivers (fluvial), the sea (coastal), surface water (pluvial) and groundwater. At a UK level, flooding from rivers is the dominant source in terms of potential damage, but surface water flooding accounts for a greater number of properties at risk. Coastal flooding is the most dangerous in terms of impacts for life and property but accounts for a lower number of properties at risk than those affected by surface water or river flooding.

The main risks to people, communities and buildings from flooding in Scotland are:

• Death or injury from flood events.
• Long term and severe impacts on mental health and wellbeing from flooding and being affected by flooding).
• Damage to property:
• Structural damage and the costs of rebuilding and repair.
• Upheaval and financial implications of cleaning up.
• Further upheaval and financial implications if residents have to move out.
• Loss of and damage to possessions.
• Disrupted access to employment, education, health services and wider facilities.
• Illness from water-borne pathogens or chemical contaminants arising from floods.

Evidence shows that Scotland’s people, communities, and buildings remain at a high risk of impacts from flooding:

• The 2018 National Flood Risk Assessment for Scotland estimates that 284,000 properties are at risk of flooding (1:200 year return period). Projections of current and future flood risk are also available from the supporting research for the CCRA3 Technical Report, which uses a consistent methodology across the UK to look at how flood risk is changing in 2˚C and 4˚C scenarios under different adaptation scenarios for each UK nation.
• Direct Expected Annual Damage (the economic impacts on an individual basis) for residential properties from all sources of flooding in Scotland are estimated to be just over£68.5 million per year. When including non-residential properties and indirect as well as direct damages, this estimate rises to £200 – 250 million per year. The storms of early 2016 were estimated to have cost the Scottish economy £700million.
• A three year study of flood affected communities in Scotland identified mental health impacts resulting from the long-term use of temporary accommodation, and sustained involvement in the reinstatement or refurbishment of their properties. Further upset and anxiety arose from flood related experiences and frequent communications with insurance companies and associated parties, and dealing with unforeseen costs.
• Flood disadvantage (the combination of living in an area at flood risk and the degree to which socially vulnerable communities are disproportionately affected by flooding) is highlighted as being greater in coastal areas, declining urban cities and dispersed rural communities. Pockets of flood disadvantaged communities exist across Scotland. However, Glasgow and the wider City Region are a signifiant area of concentration, and Glasgow is one of the 10 UK local authorities which together account for 50% of socially vulnerable people living in areas at flood risk.

At a UK level, climate change will increase the number of properties at risk of flooding from all sources. These could be in areas that have not previously been at risk of flooding. In addition to climate change, population and economic growth requiring more development will also exacerbate flood risk. Decreases are shown in the numbers of people at significant risk of river flooding in the 2050s and 2080s for Scotland in the low population scenario, which is due to estimated decreases in population living in areas at significant risk from this type of flooding.

Although considerable advances have been made regarding the strategic management of flood risk at national and local levels since the last CCRA, the risk magnitude remains high now and in the future in Scotland, with more action needed due to the scale of the risk. Key areas of challenge relate to continued development on the flood plain, the management of surface water flooding via SuDS, the low take up of Property Flood Resilience (PFR), and the lack of UK-wide standards.

A Position Statement on the Scotland’s fourth National Planning Framework highlights the need for a fresh approach to address climate change. Issues that need to be addresssed to achieve this ambition are identified as: reducing communities’ exposure to flooding by future-proofing the design of the built environment and investing in natural infrastructure; promoting natural flood risk management and strengthening policies on the water environment and drainage infrastructure; restricting development in flood risk areas; adapting existing infrastructure where climate change may increase vulnerability to flooding; and placing greater importance on flood risk management and coastal protection and the interface between planning on land and at sea.

Insight 3: Designing for a Changing Climate, Architecture and Design Scotland

Funded by the Climate Change Directorate of the Scottish Government, Architecture and Design Scotland undertook an exploration into designing for a changing climate, using a whole-place approach to address Net Zero and climate adaptation challenges. The project considered changes that can be made to tackle climate change across different scales (urban neighbourhoods; city centre; town; rural), and identified eight principles of designing for a carbon conscious place:

• A Place-Led Approach
• A Place of Small Distances
• A Network of Small Places
• A Place Designed for and with Local People
• A Place that Reuses, Repurposes and Considers Whole Life Costs
• A Place with Whole and Circular Systems
• A Place the Supports Sharing
• A Place Designed in Time

The resulting report offers examples, principles and illustrations to help guide and inspire people to support a whole-place approach to responding to the climate imperative, carbon targets and their place conditions.

Source: Architecture and Design Scotland
Image: © Richard Carman/Architecture and Design Scotland

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Conventional flood defences remain vital, with Natural Flood Management (NFM) and PFR take up by residential and non-residential properties also contributing significantly to reducing Expected Annual Damages. Flood forecasting and warning provides an underpinning response across all portfolios. Effective spatial planning remains the only measure that can avoid flood exposure due to development. Specific areas where additional action is needed include:

• Whilst there is a substantial body of research being conducted to inform and facilitate a change in approach from protection to embracing a range of measures that achieve resilience, working across the UK nations and widely sharing outcomes from case study examples and initiatives is needed to enable a more integrated approach. This could also generate fuller public engagement about the respective roles of different actors in reducing risk and taking adaptive measures, as well as help to promote community level responses that could build resilience.
• There is an economic case for increasing investment in socially vulnerable areas. Whilst current funding approaches prioritise support for deprived communities, introducing new metrics focused on reducing social vulnerability to flooding in Scotland would help further mitigate the social costs of flooding.
• It would be beneficial to understand how new developments built in at-risk areas are being made safe and resilient. This information should be publicly available by development and should include whether properties are being protected by flood defences (and if so to what level) as well as the extent to which PFR has been implemented in new development.
• Understanding of the barriers to PFR uptake has improved, informed by research in Scotland; subsequent recommendations now need to be acted upon.
• While SuDS are mandatory requirements for new development in Scotland, there is a lack of published evidence regarding the monitoring of their implementation. With surface water flood risk projected to increase under all scenarios, there is a strong argument for greater enforcement.

Insight 4: Water-resilient places – surface water management and blue-green infrastructure: policy framework

This framework complements and supports existing policy and organisational responsibilities as set out in the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009 and highlights the importance of making surface water management a core consideration in designing for climate adaptation, sustainable placemaking and delivering great blue-green places to live. The paper outlines how surface water is currently managed in Scotland, sets out a vision for the future and describes the components that should be brought together to form a coherent framework that will support delivery.

It concludes with recommendations for action to improve the delivery of surface water management and flood resilience in Scotland, to support the commitments in the Programme for Government and to help address the relevant recommendations in the Infrastructure Commission for Scotland’s Key Findings Report – specifically those focused on climate adaptation, “infrastructure first” and improving regulatory coherence across water provision, flood management and resilience.

The 21 recommendations are structured around six key elements that are required to deliver water-resilient places:

Taken together the recommendations aim to support the transition to water resilient places where communities can continue to thrive as climate change impacts play-out over the coming decades.

Source: The Scottish Government
Image © The Scottish Government

Case study 3: Greater Easterhouse Green Infrastructure Project

The Greater Easterhouse Green Infrastructure project created new and improved open spaces through delivery of integrated blue-green network interventions in three areas of Glasgow – Easterhouse (Blairtummock Park), Ruchazie (Croiftcroighn Road and Park) and Cranhill (Cranhill Park and local road network).

The project transformed over 29ha of land within one of Scotland’s most socially and economically deprived areas, converting vacant and derelict sites into connected and accessible green spaces, and reducing flood risk via surface water management ponds and channels and de-culverting burns. It also provides infrastructure for future regeneration to connect into. The £7.4 million scheme was delivered by Glasgow City Council, with Glasgow City Region City Deal funding, in partnership with Nature Scot, the Metropolitan Glasgow Strategic Drainage Partnership and the Seven-Lochs Partnership. The project created ‘blue networks’ of restored local burns and introduced new footpaths between local areas. Within the Blairtummock/Westerwood area, the project provides a high-quality green-blue route, linking Easterhouse Train Station to the Town Centre, which will connect to the new visitor centre of the Seven-Lochs Wetland Park. Within the Cranhill/Ruchazie Area, the green infrastructure improved place attractiveness by addressing prominent vacant and derelict sites. The surface water management features will reduce the risks and impacts of flooding both for the local area and downstream through the east end of Glasgow, which will benefit existing communities and help to facilitate regeneration. The project has also resulted in habitat improvements for biodiversity (including burrowing water voles), as well as helping to unlock development sites which will support public and private investment and create local employment opportunities. In addition, the improvements to the existing public open space will provide opportunities for the local schools and community groups to undertake volunteering and employability training.

Cranhill Park prior to construction/Cranhill Park basin post construction

Source: Adaptation Scotland/Greater Easterhouse Green Infrastructure Project
Image: © Greater Easterhouse Green Infrastructure Project

H4. Viability of coastal communities

Summary of risk definition and description

This risk is focused on coastal change (the physical change to the shoreline caused by coastal erosion, coastal landslip, permanent inundation, or coastal accretion) that is of such severity that the long-term viability of coastal communities is threatened. Climate projections suggest greater sea level rise than had been projected previously and in response to this, considerable work has been conducted to enhance both an understanding of coastal risk and policy and strategy development.

No evidence has been identified regarding coastal communities in Scotland whose current viability is threatened by coastal change, and therefore the current magnitude score is low. However, it should be noted that:

• 19% of Scotland’s coastline is at risk of erosion within the next 30 years; between a half and a third of all coastal buildings, roads, rail and water networks lie in these erodible sections (I3).
• Since the 1970s, overall the proportion of advancing (accreting) coast has fallen by 22%, whilst the proportion of retreating (eroding) coast has increased by 39%.
• Average erosion rates have doubled to one metre per year, compared with the historical baseline of 0.5 metres per year.
• Coastal areas have a higher proportion of flood disadvantaged data zones than areas located further inland. Research undertaken in 2015 indicates Falkirk, West Dunbartonshire, Highland and Dumfries and Galloway have the highest number of extremely/acutely flood disadvantaged data zones in relation to coastal flooding, with over 28,000 people potentially flood-disadvantaged.
• Four of the SurgeWatch most severe coastal flooding events have affected Scotland (figure 11).

Figure 11: Historical severe coastal flooding events affecting Scotland (Recreated from Health, Communities and Built Environment technical chapter).

In future, impacts could become more significant as outlined below:

• Sea level rise of over 1m by 2100 is projected around the Scottish coast for certain scenarios, with significant risks in low lying islands particularly in the Western Isles.
• If recent erosion rates continue in the future, then by 2050 at least 50 residential and non-residential buildings, 1.6km of railway, 5.2km of road and 2.4km of clean water network as well as significant areas of runways, cultural and natural heritage sites are expected to be affected by coastal erosion.
• An increase in erosion rates in the future, as expected with climate change, means Dynamic Coast (National Coastal Change Assessment) and the National Flood Risk Assessment are likely to underestimate the number of assets at risk from future coastal erosion and associated coastal flooding. Dynamic Coast 2 will be published in 2021 and will consider increasing erosion rates and sea level rise (Insight 1).
• Large numbers of assets are sited close to potentially erodible coast, including 30,000 buildings, 1,300 km of roads and 100 km of railway lines. This will have implications for communities if basic infrastructure services (I3) are affected as well as affecting access to employment, education, health and leisure facilities.

The future magnitude score for Scotland therefore increases from low to medium; this particularly relates to the projected increase in coastal erosion, and more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Considerable work has been conducted to enhance the understanding of coastal risk in relation to erosion in Scotland via Dynamic Coast (Insight 1), and it is important that mapping and modelling continues to improve. Additional actions are set out in Figure 12.

Figure 12: Potential adaptation in coastal areas (Recreated from Health, Communities and Built Environment technical chapter).

H5. Building fabric

Summary of risk definition and description

This risk is primarily concerned with homes and costs to households, resulting from damage to dwellings from moisture, high winds, subsidence, and insect damage. In addition, damp buildings cause harm to health and wellbeing, and damage to dwellings from high winds can also risk injury. The analysis for this risk is largely described at the UK level. Climate risks to building fabric include:

• Excessive moisture due to flooding, and heavy rain.
• Structural damage due to high winds.
• Current exposure to wind-driven rain in Scotland ranges from ‘Moderate’ in some east coast areas to ‘Very Severe’ along much of the west coast and Scottish Islands.
• Landslides are also an additional risks to dwellings throughout the UK and can be associated with heavy rainfall events.

Some evidence contained in the assessment indicates that the vulnerability of the Scottish housing stock to extreme wind and rain is declining. Rates of domestic building disrepair have declined over the last ten years, however, there has been no significant difference in homes reporting dampness since 2002 (reported to be approximately 4% in 2016). It is difficult to separate out how this risk is expected to change in future specifically in Scotland, but in summary the likely future impacts on building fabric due to climate change are included in figure 13 below.

Figure 13: How climate change could affect building fabric (Recreated from Health, Communities and Built Environment technical chapter).

However, the impact of climate change on these specific weather conditions is highly uncertain as they are not well described in climate impact scenarios and evidence of the impact of climate hazards on building fabric, particularly the prevalence of current impacts and costs to households, is limited. The presence of at least some relevant building standards means that the present day risk is being considered for new build homes or those undergoing refurbishment. However, there is little evidence that the future risks from climate change in both +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenarios are yet being integrated into planning, building design or retrofit. The present and future risk for Scotland is medium, with the risk of most concern being wind-driven rain, and further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

• Improving housing quality has multiple benefits, such as reducing the health and wellbeing burden from damp homes and reducing household costs.
• Most adaptations related to building fabric are currently reactive, i.e. they happen after the damage has occurred to repair the home. There would be benefits to more proactive action to assess risks, including measurement of indoor environmental quality and better prediction of risks like subsidence. This would include factoring in the possible impact of climate risks based on +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenarios into planning, building design and retrofit.
• Measures to improve energy efficiency in new and existing housing, such as increased insulation and airtightness can lead to increased risk of moisture-related damage to building structure and the internal environment if additional ventilation is not also included. Taking a more integrated approach to design for new builds and retrofit will have multiple benefits, not least to avoid issues like higher indoor vapour and mould growth.  
• An important response to windstorm risks is household insurance. Retrofit interventions to existing homes like stronger doors and windows have high up-front costs but also high benefits. New builds would benefit from more consideration of siting, orientation, design and materials used in advance of construction to reduce the risks from wind.

H6. Household energy demand

Summary of risk definition and description

Household heating demand dominates energy use in housing at present. Future heating demand will be reduced by climate change due to warmer winters, but cooling demand is likely to increase in summer, though this is very dependent on how much households take up mechanical cooling measures like fans and air conditioning. Winter fuel poverty could reduce in the future, but ‘summer fuel poverty,’ where householders may not be able to afford cooling, could rise.

The exact level of risk or opportunity, trading off between reduced heating and increased cooling, remains hard to quantify. In addition, changing energy policy to meet the Scotland’s Net Zero emission targets will have a high influence on this opportunity as there will be big changes in energy efficiency, fuel types used, total electricity demand given increasing electrification of the energy grid, and also what types of heating and cooling devices will be most effective in homes given these changing demands in winter and summer.

The present and future magnitude score for the risk of increased summer cooling is low in Scotland, but confidence is low and there could be higher magnitudes under warmer scenarios. The magnitude of the benefit of reduced in winter heating costs is high, across all future periods and scenarios, and more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Policies and strategies for space heating and cooling in dwellings would be more successful if they include consideration of the changing climate and its effect on energy demand in homes alongside the need to decarbonise. There is a need for better integration of this issue in Net Zero policy analysis, and subsequent government intervention. Information and awareness raising to help households and businesses to recognise and maximise these beneficial changes would help realise the potential economic benefits.

This risk/opportunity has been highlighted in the risk assessment as particularly likely to benefit from an ‘adaptive pathway’ approach, meaning various policy choices are mapped out against different future climate change and Net Zero scenarios, and the choices are narrowed down over time as uncertainty decreases. Adaptive pathways are used routinely in the flooding and water sectors, but to date have not been used widely in energy policy.

There is also a need to build increased cooling demand into energy policy, including:

• Incorporating future changes in energy demand from warmer winter and hotter summers into energy efficiency and low carbon heating policy and technologies being rolled out across the UK.
• Incentivising the uptake of passive cooling over mechanical cooling measures as far as is appropriate.
• Providing support households that might experience ‘summer fuel poverty,’ for example by an inability to afford air conditioning if this is required.

H7. Health and wellbeing

Summary of risk definition and description

Weather patterns can affect the formation and dispersion of air pollutants. Climate change may also change emissions of some pollutants or precursors of health-relevant pollutants. The incremental change in risk from climate change only, compared to non-climate causes, is uncertain. Air quality issues have been divided into three areas based on the different policy approaches:

• Outdoor air quality associated with anthropogenic sources (including traffic, industry and agricultural sources) and wildfires. The main health-related hazard is particulates (PM2.5 and PM10), though ground level ozone also affects health and is the dominant hazard when considering future climate change impacts on air quality. Recent heatwave events have not been associated with the high levels of ground-level ozone observed in previous heatwaves, although levels of ozone were elevated. Modelling studies indicate that ground level ozone levels may decrease in the UK with climate change, but not under all climate scenarios. Air pollution emissions from combustion are expected to decline significantly under some Net Zero scenarios, thus the baseline level of pollution and interactions with climate change is likely to reduce the future risk for outdoor air quality.
• Indoor air quality is dependent on building characterisitics, ventilation, emissions from indoor sources and external air quality. Indoor air quality could be affected by interventions for Net Zero that can affect the ventilation of buildings.. Higher temperatures may also improve or reduce indoor air quality. If temperatures are higher people may open windows more which could provide increased air circulation. However, in instances of poor outdoor air quality this could reduce the quality of indoor air. Overall, however, there is very little evidence on the impact of climate change on indoor air quality.  
• Natural (non-anthropogenic) sources of air quality related to pollen and mould that affect health. Pollen risks are likely to change with climate change although the implications for health are not clear.

Scotland currently has areas with poor air quality, despite reductions in emissions and improved pollution control. Evidence specific to Scotland is difficult to determine for this risk, and scoring is also difficult as the impact of outdoor air pollution is very high but the role of climate change is per se is small and uncertain. Present-day risks are scored as high magnitude due to the high number of annual deaths attributed to outdoor air pollution. However, the overall lack of certainty around this risk means the magnitude is medium in future and has been classed as requiring further investigation especially given that there may be a gap in policies that seek to understand how the influence of climate change on future air pollution episodes might be managed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

The main action that will have benefits in the next five years will be publication and further implementation of the updated Cleaner Air for Scotland strategy. Any actions that reduce levels of outdoor pollutants in general will also have a positive effect on future air quality. In addition:

• Further research on climate change impacts on wildfire and pollen risks, and their effects on health, would be beneficial.
• More research on the relationship between air pollutants and extreme heat would also be beneficial.
• Considering health co-benefits and trade-offs of potential adaptation actions for air quality may be helpful, for example nature-based solutions and improving green spaces.
• Consideration of how interventions to increase airtightness of buildings may worsen indoor air quality would be beneficial.  

H8. Health

Summary of risk definition and description

Some diseases transmitted by insects and ticks (vectors) are likely to change in prevalence in the future due to warmer temperatures changing the distribution of the vector in the UK as well as diseases acquired by people overseas and being brought back into the UK (ID9). The key factors associated with this risk include the following:

• Lyme disease cases may increase with climate change due to an extended transmission season and increases in person-tick contact, although non-climate drivers such as agriculture, land use, tourism and wild animal populations are also dominant influences. Scotland has more reported cases of Lyme disease compared to other parts of the UK, due to higher humidity and high rates of outdoor tourism, both of which are likely to increase with climate change.
• The risk of Culex and mosquito transmitted diseases, such as West Nile Virus, Chikungunya and dengue fever is likely to increase in the UK, although there is no current evidence indicating establishment of mosquito-transmitted disease in Scotland. The risk that malaria may become established remains low.

Exit from the EU may undermine actions to control vector-borne diseases through reduced access to international surveillance systems. However, at the time of writing, it not known whether the UK will have continued access to international public health surveillance systems such as those coordinated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). In Scotland, the future magnitude of risk from vector-borne diseases due to climate change is considered to be medium. While updated information and guidance on ticks and Lyme disease has been published by Health Protection Scotland, there is no other strategy or plan to further investigate other vector-borne diseases in the context of climate change, hence further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There would be direct benefits from improving disease and vector surveillance in Scotland and across the UK, given the very large benefits of catching vectors and pathogens before they become established. The main benefits of further action are in enhanced monitoring and surveillance systems, including early warning, which can be considered a low-regret option. Surveillance programs are highly cost effective. There are also studies that show that vaccination for tick-borne encephalitis may be cost-effective, for people who may be exposed through work, although there is currently no vaccine for Lyme disease.

H9. Food safety and food security

Summary of risk definition and description

Increases in extreme weather patterns, variations in rainfall and changing annual temperatures will impact the occurrence and persistence of bacteria, viruses, parasites, harmful algae, fungi and their vectors in crops and livestock produced in the UK. Animal products (meat and eggs) carry a higher risk than vegetables. In terms of food security, access to healthy and affordable food is a public health issue; food insecurity driven by stock shortages or higher prices is often associated with inadequate intake of fruit, vegetables and some essential micronutrients. Some studies project an average rise in price of 20% by 2050, though with a large uncertainty range. Due to the large burden of disease associated with food safety and the potential for very significant impacts from near term shortages in access to healthy foods, this risk is already considered to have a medium-high magnitude, rising to high under higher emissions scenarios in Scotland.

Risks specific to Scotland are difficult to determine, but there is some evidence of the impacts of climate change on both food safety and security. Regarding the former, there have been incidences of weather-related toxins present in shellfish in the UK (including one case of Tetrodotoxin in Scotland), which can be harmful for human health, with higher concentrations identified in areas of warmer temperatures. In relation to food security, an example of how climate change could affect this comes from the reduction in crop yields (N6).

Warmer temperatures have implications for longer crop growth and livestock to be outdoors, presenting possible opportunities for Scotland’s agricultural sector. However, the growing season is likely to be disrupted by heat stress and reduced summer precipitation. Climate change internationally could also have an impact on food supply, prices and quality (see B6 and ID1). The whole of the UK currently is lacking in specific policies to address the implications of climate change for food safety or food security. The magnitude of future risk is high, hence further investigation is required.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

For food safety, low regret options would include food regulations and education on food handling and safety, coupled with horizon scanning and continuous monitoring for emerging risks. For food security, the private sector and Government both have a role to ensure a higher level of resilience along supply chains. Routine monitoring of food security across Scotland is also essential to protect public health and limit unecessary costs for the health and social care system. Predicting future climate risks to the Scottish food system will ensure vulnerable groups to food insecurity are protected and the impacts to public health are minimised.

H10. Health

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate change and reduced summer precipitation resulting from climate change will increase the likelihood of periods of water scarcity and droughts. Together with demand increases from economic and population growth, this may lead to interruptions of household water supplies and associated health, social and economic impacts, particularly for vulnerable households. Private water supplies are most vulnerable to current and future climate hazards that affect water quality (outbreaks) and quantity (interruption of supply) and are particularly important for more isolated communities. Climate change may also increase the risk of contamination of drinking water through increased runoff and flooding events that overwhelm current water treatment approaches. Sea level rise, heavy rainfall, and coastal erosion can increase pollution from historical landfills. Risks to health from contact with bathing water (sea, lakes and rivers) and harmful algal blooms may also increase with climate change.  

There are specific concerns around this issue in Scotland, mainly in relation to Private Water Supplies (PWS), which are those not regulated or supplied by Scottish Water. Approximately 3.6% of Scottish households rely on private supplies of water, which are especially vulnerable to small variations in the climate such as increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, as they generally come from surface waters. PWS are more commonly located in remote and rural communities in Scotland – for example, approximately 34% of the population of Argyll and Bute rely on PWS.

2018 was recorded as one of the warmest and driest years, with parts of Scotland receiving only 75% of typical annual rainfall. Impacts included:

• The drying up of some PWS across Scotland. The north east of Scotland was the worst effected with failures of 165 supplies reported to Aberdeenshire Council. Emergency responses resulted in bottled water being delivered to local authorities (case study 4).
• Depleted reservoir levels contributed to failures in manganese and iron. Black Esk water supply zone identified three failures which were attributed to dry weather and low reservoir levels, and no effective treatment process to remove manganese.
• Additionally, there was an increase in water quality related incidents referencing issues of colour and odour resulting from algae presence in source waters.

There have also been several incidences of water contamination following heavy rainfall, such as when a reservoir in Orkney failed microbiological standards in 2017 due to E.coli being present, resulting in a temporary ban on drinking and cooking with affected water, and bottled water being distributed to the affected area.

Scotland continues to maintain surpluses in public water supply in the middle and late century under a no additional adaptation/ central population scenario, though deficits are possible in the high population scenario (I8). However, this does not include private supplies which are more at risk. There are also clear variations across Scotland with the west receiving far more rainfall than the east which could lead to local deficits. SEPA, the Scottish Government and Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters are exploring ways to make PWS more resilient to drought in the future. The risk is assessed as being low magnitude at present rising to medium in future, and further investigation is required.

Case study 4: Emergency assistance for Private Water Supplies in the Highlands

There are more than 2,500 private water supplies (PWS) in the Highlands, serving a population of more than 30,000. Due to severe drought conditions in early July 2018, Highland Council issued a reminder that owners of PWS were responsible for managing and ensuring provision of water to households. Residents and landlords of tenants were encouraged to minimise water use and purchase bottled water where necessary. However, due to the volume of reports of dried up private well supplies further measures were necessary. The Scottish Government provided additional grant funding to Scottish Water and local authorities to provide emergency assistance for households free of charge. The grant total was £475,432. Bottled water was stored locally and distributed to households and was considered a successful solution accessed by many private users of water supplies across Scotland.

Source: CCRA3 Technical Report – Infrastructure Technical Chapter, Highland Gov, BBC
Image: Pixabay

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There are likely to be benefits of further actions to improve water quality by reducing the risk of surface water flooding, such as the development of SuDS, catchment management, wetland creation and improvements to bathing water quality. Nature-based solutions also help combat urban heat island effects and prevent surface water and river flooding. There is some concern about chemical incidents during flooding and a need for further emergency planning. Further activities are also needed to assess the futute risks to, and measures that are needed to protect private water supplies. Alongside this, there are a complementary set of water saving measures that can be introduced by homes, many of which are no and low-regret.

H11. Cultural heritage

Summary of risk definition and description

This risk describes effects of climate change on cultural heritage, which includes moveable heritage (such as museum collections), archaeological resources, historic buildings and structures, cultural landscapes/associated communities, and intangible heritage (such as folklore, language and knowledge). Cultural heritage is intrinsically linked to economic activity across the Scotland, particularly tourism. The main current risks to cultural heritage relate to changes in precipitation, temperature increase, coastal processes and from unintended consequences of climate mitigation and adaptation activities in other sectors (see overview of the physcial risks presented in Figure 14).

Impacts of climate change on cultural heritage have already been observed across Scotland, and understanding of the current scale of risk has increased considerably in recent years, though more research and action is required. Coastal heritage is particularly at risk from climate change, and has often formed the focus of research, resulting in an imbalance in understanding of climate impacts on heritage assets. It is recognised that the impacts of climate change will lead to the loss of some heritage assets. This process of loss is likely to be a powerful motivator for engagement and action on climate change. It also provides opportunites to understand sites and places in a way that might have otherwise not been possible, for example new heritage discoveries being revealed by climate driven impacts, such as the discovery of the Orkney Venus at Links of Noltland, the earliest depection of the human form found in Scotland.

The following table outlines observed impacts on cultural heritage from climate hazards and includes examples where these have occurred in Scotland. It should be noted that observed impacts of climate hazards are not systematically reported, and therefore the representation of risks to heritage in published literature cannot be considered representative of the true extent of the risks. Historic Environment Scotland’s (HES) A Guide to Climate Change Impacts on Scotland’s Historic Environment provides a more in-depth overview of how climate change is impacting the historic environment in Scotland.

Figure 14: Observed impacts on cultural heritage from climate hazards (Recreated from Health, Communities and Built Environment technical chapter).

There has been progress in Scotland to begin to quantify the number of heritage assets at risk from the impacts of climate change. In 2018 HES published the first phase of their climate change risk assessment project. This phase detailed the risk to more than 300 Properties in Care (PICs) from natural hazards such as flooding and coastal erosion. The project, carried out in partnership with the British Geological Survey and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, found that 53% of HES PIC were at high or very high risk of the natural hazards studied in the project. This particular project is one of many advances made in the past five years (case study 5).

An assessment of risks to coastal heritage assets has been conducted in Scotland by Scotland’s Coastal Aracheology and the Problem of Erosion (SCAPE). This was informed by a national survey of coastal archaeological heritage threatened by erosion, leading to a revised assessment of 145 sites as high priority. All the sites identified as being at highest risk are in Orkney and the Western Isles.

The risk magnitude for Scotland is medium at present but rising to high in future due to the large number of assets thought to be at risk, and more action is needed. Confidence levels are higher for Scotland than England and Northern Ireland due to more activity in the sector in Scotland.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Work undertaken already by many organisations has improved understanding of climate risks to heritage assets in Scotland. However, further action would be beneficial, to map climate related hazards and understand the vulnerability of different heritage assets, and identify those types of assets and locations most at risk. The complexity of ownership of heritage assets and overlaps with landscape, land management and the natural environment mean that this is complex. Standardising data collation and facilitating sharing would help further understanding of risks and opportunities.

The top priority challenges and emerging issues which need to be addressed are as follows:

• Communicating the emerging prominence of ‘managing loss’ of heritage assets as a result of climate change and the need for more robust systems of prioritising assets for action.
• Demonstrating the value of heritage in understanding what the impacts of climate change are, and how these assets and the landscapes they occupy have a valuable role to play in managing the impacts of climate change and in how they can motivate people to take action.
• The need for longer-term data capture to better understand the impacts of climate change on heritage assets and a better understanding on how to assess the impact of climate hazards in combination, as damage will occur not just from one single climate driver.
• Greater awareness and cross-sector working to address potential conflicts between retaining the integrity of historic assets, and enhancing their resilience, in order to reduce the risk of maladaptation.
• Intangible cultural heritage has a lower profile than buildings and assets and is more difficult to protect. More research is required into the impact of climate change on intangible heritage and the adaptation actions required.

Case Study 5 – Historic Environment Scotland Climate Action Plan

Historic Environment Scotland (HES) recently published their updated Climate Action Plan. With regards to climate change adaptation, this includes undertaking a detailed assessment of climate risks and opportunities for the assets under their protection and developing their first adaptation strategy.

In their role in supporting the wider historic environment sector they have committed to continuing to promote maintenance and repair as the first line of defence for historic environment assets and in providing leadership on how to manage the loss of heritage assets where there are no other viable solutions. There has also been a commitment to including climate change resilience measures as part of their Grants & Investment programme supporting heritage conservation and regeneration across Scotland. As well as this they will continue to research the impacts of climate change on the historic environment and provide tools and resources to support others, adding to the extensive collection of guidance case studies that have been published by HES since CCRA2.

Source: Historic Environment Scotland Image: Kisimul Castle, Castlebay, Isle of Barra © Donald MacLeod

H12. Health and social care delivery

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate change will create disruption to health and social care services due to the direct effects of floods, heatwaves and other extreme weather on hospitals and other health and care settings, which may damage buildings or disrupt the lifeline transport services upon which services rely. Indirect effects will occur through the detrimental effects of extreme weather on people’s health and wellbeing, which will increase demand for services. These impacts will be felt not only within institutional settings, such as hospitals, residential and nursing homes, and respite centres, but will also affect people who receive care services in their own homes, and may prevent people from accessing critical services, such as GPs.

Overheating in hospitals, care homes and related buildings

• There are currently no systems in place for reporting instances of overheating in health and social care settings in Scotland.
• It has been estimated that up to 90% of UK hospital wards are at risk of overheating during hot weather.
• A report on overheating in Scottish healthcare settings found anecdotal evidence of overheating issues in four out of the five sites examined within the study. Zoning and control of the heating systems, solar gain, and lack of effective natural ventilation were identified as the most significant and common contributors to overheating.
• The low awareness of the health risks that heat can cause in vulnerable people is a significant risk in care settings. Warm environments are prioritised in care settings due to its association with good care.
• A study in Scotland found that staff were aware of the potential for indirect risks from overheating and staff fatigue was reported as an issue in one site.

Flood risk in hospitals and other health infrastructure

• Flood events have damaged health care infrastructure and equipment. There have been several reported examples of impacts on health services from flooding events, particularly in terms of patients and staff being unable to access services, for example a flooding event in Alyth, Perthshire, caused patients to be cut off from their GP practice for a week.
• There are currently 412 health and social care assets (hospitals, care homes, GP surgeries and emergency services) at risk of flooding in Scotland, the majority of these at greatest risk from surface water flooding.
• Figure 15 outlines the projected risk to these assets from flooding in the 2050s and 2080s depending on whether there is 2°C or 4°C global warming at 2100 and on projected population changes. In all scenarios, significant increases in flood risk are expected.

Due to the number of assets at risk of overheating and from flooding, the magnitude of risk is medium for Scotland, with a medium level of confidence, therefore more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There would be benefits to managing this risk strategically at a national level with regional and local level climate risk assessments carried out by Trusts, Health Boards, and local government social services, where these are not already happening. There are obvious potential benefits from ensuring new care homes and hospitals are designed for the future climate in terms of both flood risk and future temperatures, which is particularly important given the higher costs of retrofitting later. There are also potential options for retrofitting existing care homes and hospitals. Adaptive measures such as improved glazing, draught proofing, shutters, reflective surfaces, green cover and green space, and ceiling fans can help to reduce risk of overheating. Further investigation of the range of adaptation options available for mitigating risk in residential care buildings would be highly beneficial.

Monitoring of indoor temperatures and other indicators would be an additional response. Indoor temperature/ thermal comfort monitoring could be installed in a stepwise method, to monitor changes over times.

H13. Delivery of education and prison services

Summary of risk definition and description

This risk covers all aspects of the education sector (schools, universities, nurseries, and other early years settings) and justice services (prisons, courts, secure units). This risk was not addressed in CCRA2 and is an emerging area of concern. In most cases it has not been possible to assess current and future impacts specifically for Scotland.

Education

Most current evidence on climate risks and education relates to the impact of heat in schools. Children are more vulnerable to heat risks, especially young children and those with special needs, and are reliant on teachers and other adults for support, knowledge, and guidance. High indoor temperatures have adverse effects on health and wellbeing, especially in young children and affect cognitive performance. Higher temperatures are likely to increase heat risks in the future. Building design of schools is a key determinant of heat risk. Overheating risks can also occur outside of the school building in playgrounds and surrounding areas due to a lack of shading or through trapping of heat in surfaces such as tarmac and dark coloured materials.

The risk to schools from flooding is less well understood. There is expected to be an increase in flood risk, particularly from surface water flooding, and there is also concern that many school buildings have flat roofs and are therefore more susceptible to damage from heavy rain. Figure 16 shows current risk and future projections to schools from flooding in Scotland.

Scotland’s Schools For the Future Programme will invest £2.8 billion in constructing, rebuilding and refurbishing over 100 schools across Scotland, and SCCAP2 states that the schools programme will ensure that new and refurbished schools are fit for climate change. The Scottish Government and COSLA’s joint Learning Estate Strategy recognises the importance of planning for climate change and adaptation and informs The Learning Estate Investment programme, which seeks to invest around £2bn in renewed or refurbished learning estate facilities.

Figure 16: Schools in Scotland at current and future risk of all source flooding (Recreated from Health, Communities and Built Environment technical chapter).

Prison services

There is limited published evidence of the impact of climate hazards on prison buildings and inmate and staff health in Scotland. Prisons are vulnerable to high ambient temperatures, as temperatures can exceed comfortable conditions due to thermal efficiency and limited natural ventilation. Currently, there is no systematic evidence monitoring the indoor temperatures inside prisons in Scotland. Overheating is likely to be more of an issue in future. Future risks are highlighted as being flooding, storms and drought due to the risk of loss of building use and increased financial costs of repair or finding alternative accommodation for inmates. The Scottish Prison Service (SPS) does not currently have a strategy to mitigate future climate-related risks, although surface water control is a key consideration for new or refurbished facilities.

The magnitude of this risk is medium both now and in future, but with low confidence due to the lack of evidence, hence more action is needed.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Further adaptation measures will help to avoid lock-in due to building designs, and adapt to the future risks of overheating, flooding and other climate hazards. For schools, it is beneficial to develop a school climate adaptation plan with specific targets, strategies, tasks, and roles to ensure its delivery and effectiveness. This plan should be centred on ensuring child health and wellbeing, and engagement across the whole school system is necessary, with the aim to increase the school’s adaptive capacity. Having a school climate adaptation plan delivers multiple positive outcomes including reduced bills, increased learning opportunities, improved biodiversity, and better air quality.

A variety of adaptation measures targeted at school buildings have been developed that are specific to London Schools but are likely relevant to Scotland also. These include modifications to roofs such as green or blue roofs and cool roofs which are reflective or light in colour, and cooling technologies such as natural ventilation systems harnessing wind blowing to ventilate indoor areas. Measures to protect from flooding are categorised as:

• Avoidance: measures preventing water from accumulating into a flood in the first place.
• Resistance: measures protecting school buildings and other assets from damage in a flood.
• Recovery: measures that do not prevent water from entering a building but are used to reduce a flood’s impact and enable a quicker recovery, such as developing a flood recovery plan.

Additional operational changes for reducing flood risk in schools include regular maintenance of roofs, gutters, and drains, raising equipment to be above flood level and where possible having backup power generation to prevent power outages. Effective adaptive strategies for school outdoor grounds include rain planters and gardens; tree and shade structures; drain filters and permeable or green surfaces to manage heat, flood and water scarcity risks through increasing shade, water availability, biodiversity and promoting draining of excess water.

For prisons, there are a set of similar adaptation options as those highlighted for schools, including both non-technical and technical responses. However, there is less evidence and no analysis of costs and benefits.

Case study 6: Scotland’s Adaptation Capability Framework and its use in practice with Aberdeenshire Council

Scotland’s Adaptation Capability Framework

Scotland’s Adaptation Capability Framework (ACF) represents a significant shift away from typical risk-based adaptation guidance. Developed through the Adaptation Scotland programme in collaboration with major infrastructure operators, local authorities and national public bodies, the ACF adopts an innovative capability/maturity approach that aims to support organisations at every stage of their adaptation journey, from ‘starting’ to ‘mature’. Four cross-organisational capabilities are identified in the Framework:

• Organisational Culture and Resources
• Understanding the Challenge
• Planning and Implementation
• Working Together

The ACF is recognised as Scotland’s principal guidance for enabling climate change adaptation and has been endorsed and adopted by major organisations and networks including the Scottish Government, Forestry and Land Scotland, Historic Environment Scotland, and NHS National Services Scotland. The ACF is also recommended for use as part of the Public Bodies Duties mandatory reporting process.

ACF use by Aberdeenshire Council

Aberdeenshire Council recognise that no organisation can adapt alone and are using the ACF to progress collaborative and ambitious adaptation work. They are also using the Framework’s Benchmarking Tool to track progress as they develop their adaptation capabilities. The council has undertaken a host of activities to understand the challenge of climate change and embed adaptation across the organisation, including:

• Developing a climate change training module
• Hosting a climate change workshop with elected members
• Developing a sustainability champions programme
• Embedding climate change and sustainability considerations within committee reports
• Identifying climate change as a risk within both the corporate risk register and directorate strategic risk register

Aberdeenshire Council have also been progressing the ACF Working Together capability, resulting in the establishment of Climate Ready Aberdeenshire, a regional partnership of diverse stakeholders from communities, public, private and third sector organisations working together to create Aberdeenshire’s Climate Change Strategy, which will cover both adaptation and mitigation.

A series of workshops identified existing climate change projects, considered relevant local, national and international priorities and legislation, and helped understand the shared desire for a collective partnership approach. Key stakeholders were identified through the development of a region-wide Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) to identify contacts who had already been affected by climate impacts. A range of formal governance mechanisms have also been established, including a steering group and thematic working groups, with Terms of Reference developed to define specific roles, responsibilities and remits for each.

Aberdeenshire Council are currently developing their council Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, due to be published by the end of 2021 and which will be incorporated into their new Climate Change Action Plan. For Climate Ready Aberdeenshire, in 2021 they will focus on developing the strategy with their partners and stakeholders, and on Climate Ready Strathdon, a climate ready locality project they are completing with Sniffer, while they prepare for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow in November 2021. They aim to have their draft strategy out for public consultation at the beginning of 2022 and the final strategy released at the end of 2022. Between 2022 and 2030 they will implement a Climate Ready Aberdeenshire action plan with long term delivery of these actions from 2031 onwards as they head towards Scotland’s Net Zero Target in 2045.

Source: Adaptation Scotland and Aberdeenshire Council
Image: © Aberdeenshire Council

7. Business and Industry

Glasgow’s International Financial Services District. Image © Glasgow City Council.

This section considers current and future impacts from extreme weather events or changing climatic conditions on business and industry in Scotland. The focus is on domestic (from climate change in the UK) risks, both arising directly and indirectly. However, risk to UK businesses is mainly international and emerges via investments, supply chains, distribution networks and other business relationships (relying on adaptation outside UK control). We refer to international risks in this chapter and some others that are relevant are included in Chapter 7, but the urgency scoring in this chapter is related to domestic risks only.

Flooding is the costliest hazard to businesses. Across the different types of flooding, surface water and drainage-related risks tend to be less understood by businesses than flooding from rivers or the sea. Extreme windstorm events can also cause significant disruption and cause indirect losses, for example from failure of infrastructure or supply chains.

Heat impacts on businesses are recognised in the context of labour productivity but there is growing evidence of wider opportunities and risks. For example, high temperatures can cause irregularities for the cycle of agriculture such as fruit farms, which can damage the quality of the crops or lead to lower yields.

Subsidence caused by drying clay soils may increase with hotter, drier summers and can affect the structural integrity of buildings and underground telecommunications cables, damaging assets and commercial buildings, in turn influencing business continuity.

The evidence base has increased since CCRA2, which broadly reflects growing awareness, regulatory pressures (particularly in the financial sector) and interest from investors, as well early movement by companies using the new reporting framework from the G7’s Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). However, the evidence is still too limited for a systematic assessment of risks across sectors, company sizes and regions, but the forthcoming regulation to apply TCFD across the whole economy from 2023 has the potential to substantially increase this evidence base going forward, although the use of a separate methodology assessing transition and physical risks will make it more challenging to map to the CCRA3 methodology.

Case study 7: Using TCFD Reporting frameworks to inform business engagement and economic development

Climate Ready Clyde, Glasgow City Region’s partnership initiative for adapting to climate change has collaborated with EIT Climate-KIC and MSCI to pilot the use of metrics and approaches from the TCFD, as a way of informing regional adaptation planning and private sector engagement. MSCI used the framework and their Climate Value-at-Risk (Climate VaR)* metrics to assess the transition and physical risks of companies with locations in Glasgow City Region. The report helped Climate Ready Clyde identify and prioritise private sector organisations to engage, and to understand how the City Region may be perceived by the private sector. It also helped identify the potential for large corporates with risks outside the boundary of the City Region to translate into second order, or indirect impacts such as job losses or reduced tax revenues. Glasgow City Region is now in the process of becoming a TCFD Supporter City-Region, while MSCI are exploring the wider use of such regional models including as an offering to national, regional and local government.

Listed companies with presence in Glasgow City Region assessed in line with TCFD regulation (Source: MSCI, 2020).

* MSCI Climate Value-at-Risk (Climate VaR) is produced by MSCI ESG Research LLC. MSCI ESG Indexes and Analytics utilize information from, but are not provided by, MSCI ESG Research LLC. MSCI Indexes and Analytics are products of MSCI Inc. MSCI Indexes are administered by MSCI Limited (UK).

Source and image: © MSCI

The table below provides a comparison of the urgency scores compared to CCRA2 related to business. In most cases the urgency scores have increased.

There follows a summary of all climate risks and opportunities in Scotland related to businesses.

B1: Flooding of business sites

Summary of risk definition and description

Current and future risk are significant, with high magnitude impacts across the UK. Action such as enhanced flood protection, including business continuity is encouraging but given the scale of risk, and current levels of adaptation, as well as the wider implications for the economy and society at large, more action is needed. The expected direct annual damages for non-residential properties in Scotland at present is £114m, comprising of 17% of total UK damages.

SEPA’s 2018 National Flood Risk Assessment shows that around 30,000 buildings related to businesses and industry were at flood risk with medium likelihood and around 10,000 buildings of businesses and industry faced flood risk with high likelihood. Total losses and damages increase further once wider infrastructure risks such as electricity loss are considered. Without additional adaptation, dedicated flood risk projections for CCRA3 show that the expected annual damages for non-residential properties in Scotland are not going to increase by 2050 and are expected to increase by 8% by 2080 under a +2°C at 2100 scenario and to increase by 13% by 2050 and 34% by 2080 under a +4°C at 2100 scenario, as can be seen in figure 17 below.

Given the expected annual impacts, which is in the tens of millions of pounds for Scotland, the magnitude of this risk is high now and in the future. This is also supported by other evidence.

Business investment decisions taken in the next decade, notably around buildings and infrastructure assets, face potential risks if future climate change is not considered. This is a particular risk if development continues to occur on the floodplain and where flood risk management measures are currently or will become insufficient to manage risks. There is perhaps a greater risk of lock-in to surface water flooding, just because these risks are more heterogenous and less well characterised than river floods and flood plains.

Thresholds including availability of insurance and costs of capital could increase magnitude even further unless risk levels are reduced through corporate as well as community-level adaptation action. In addition, several infrastructure risks also have the potential to cascade into business risks from flooding, mainly affecting productivity. The assessment shows that current adaptation by government and the private sector is only partially likely to manage this risk.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There will be significant benefits from further action in the next five years from low-regret actions to improve the evidence base and provide further awareness raising, advice and support to businesses to improve their resilience to flooding. Quantifying risks and impacts is difficult, particularly for individual business sectors, where data is often commercially sensitive.

However, if further adaptation measures are taken in addition to what is currently planned, then the UK-wide expected annual damages for non-residential properties will decrease by -5% by 2050 and increase by 1% by 2080 compared to present day levels of expected damage, under a +2^oC at 2100 scenario. Figures for a +4^oC at 2100 scenario are a 5% increase by 2050 and a 21% increase by 2080. In Scotland however, figures decrease by 32% by 2050 and 27% by 2080 for a +2^oC at 2100 scenario.

Businesses should also make use of the flood forecasting and warning services provided by SEPA to plan for and respond to flooding in their areas. It is likely that improving the uptake of property flood protection by businesses will also have significant benefits in the next five years.

B2: Coastal business locations and infrastructure

Summary of risk definition and description

For most of the UK, a considerable amount of industrial and commercial activity, as well as infrastructure occurs along the coast (the risks to infrastructure are outlined in Chapter 4). Flooding and coastal change risk to businesses is a high risk now and is expected to remain a high risk in the future for Scotland.

There is a significant diversity of levels of information about climate risks and adaptations across the UK. In Scotland, evidence is growing on the changing risks and adaptations being used, but more action is needed to better understand and respond to the levels of risk and adaptation required for businesses.

The current impact to coastal business locations is mainly driven by coastal flooding and extreme weather events (such as the floods in 2015-16 in northern England and southern Scotland), rather than coastal erosion. However, there is evidence that sea level rise could lead to a loss of coastal business locations and the infrastructure they rely on that, for example, provide access, power, and communications.

Current expected annual damages to non-residential properties in Scotland are £20m, or 17% of the UK total, whilst Scotland’s National Coastal Change Assessment (NCCA) estimates that between a half and a third of all coastal buildings, roads, rail, and water network lie in erodible sections. Where coastal changes occur, the NCCA identifies: (i) nationally average erosion rates around the Scottish coastline have doubled since the 1970s to 1.0m per year and (ii) accretion rates have almost doubled to 1.5m per year.

The expected annual damages for UK-wide non-residential properties from coastal flooding is expected to increase by 30% by 2050 and 73% by 2080 on the basis of no additional adaptation, under a +2°C at 2100 scenario and increase by 82% by 2050 and 181% by 2080 under a +4°C at 2100 scenario. For Scotland, the current magnitude is already high, with £tens of millions damage today, and expected to increase further in the absence of additional adaptation

As with the previous risks, business investment decisions have a high potential for lock-in for this risk, because of the location of investment and the rising risks of coastal flooding and erosion. Business investment decisions with long lifetimes taken in the next decade or two, notably around buildings and infrastructure assets, face potential risks if future climate change is not considered, or if businesses do not have access to available information including on coastal erosion from local authorities.

Thresholds associated to risk from coastal change include design and engineering thresholds for coastal flood protection infrastructure and business decision thresholds for levels of acceptable risk or investment criteria. Cascading risks for businesses arising from the failure of critical infrastructures after flood damage are increasingly recognised.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Financial resources will not be available in the future to defend the entire coast of Scotland and so priorities are needed to allocate resources for coastal protection. Without this prioritisation all assets could be at risk of damage. Some coastal communities, businesses and infrastructure may need to change in structure, focus, organisation, and location to become viable under future climates. Yet there is a lack of urgent and open public engagement with this need for change. There are also opportunities to businesses from coastal change. Depending on the designation, the opportunity exists for businesses to bid for funding to redevelop the coastal area. There is also the potential for business opportunities to emerge from habitat creation, or new approaches to construction to enable communities to ‘live with rising seas’. Coastal properties could also be purchased and repurposed to generate income, for example for wind farm development or, temporary holiday lets.

Chapter 6 states that although some action is underway, it will only partially manage the risks to businesses from coastal change according to the evidence available, which is also reflected in the assessments of coastal adaptation shortfall in other Chapters 3, 4 and 5. A continuation of current levels of ambition as set out in the analysis suggests that expected annual damages to businesses from coastal flooding and erosion will not stay at today’s level on the basis of current actions, or even in an enhanced adaptation scenario.

The following most frequent adaptation strategies reported by companies in the context of coastal risks are as follows:

• Investing in ‘hard’ engineering solutions, for example upgrades to flood protection, new water saving devices and heat reduction in offices.
• Developing and implementing enhanced business continuity plans that consider current and future risks including regular reviews and tests.
• Investing in ecosystem-services and green solutions to reduce risks, for example natural water storage/drainage, green roofs, and tree planting.

Some other potential benefits of these and other adaptation measures and policy interventions include:

• Transparency about protection levels and protection limits to avoid false sense of security.
• Link future risks into coastal management and development visions of coastal communities to set realistic expectations and increase public engagement.
• Investments in community resilience.
• Research into business opportunities in high-risk coastal locations.
• Reduced financial instability.
• Community engagement, for example strategic planning for caravan park businesses and their inhabitants needs to be inclusive. This would ensure adaptation strategies are most suited.

B3: Business production processes

Summary of risk definition and description

Water is used by businesses for cooling and heating, washing products, dissolving chemicals, suppressing dust and as a direct input to products. Water intense manufacturing sub-sectors such as chemicals and chemical products, basic metals, paper and paper products, beverages and food products are more vulnerable to water scarcity. In terms of highest overall use, the manufacturing sector is the biggest abstractor, being responsible for between approximately 45% and 55% of direct abstractions. Other relatively large abstractors include mining and quarrying, and also arts, entertainment and recreation, and other goods and services.

Water is also being used by people working in businesses for drinking, washing and sanitary purposes like domestic users. The degree to which businesses will change their water requirements due to socioeconomic circumstances is highly uncertain but potentially a significant driver of risk. If not well managed, risk of water shortage is projected to become material in investment and employment for water-intense sectors. As such, water scarcity risks require further investigation due to significant gaps in analysis with the magnitude of risk being low now, but medium to potentially high in the future.

Non-household water demand currently accounts for around 20% of demand in Scotland, lower than household demand and water leakage. At present there is a slight deficit of around 20 Ml per day in the public water supply in Scotland. There has been a sustained decrease in the annual average volume of non-domestic water used per day between 2008/09 (466 Ml per day) and 2016/17 (394 Ml per day), though it cannot currently be determined what is driving this drop. Data is not currently available on direct abstractions by businesses in Scotland. Business impacts from drought conditions have been reported for the drinks sectors, with whisky producers in Scotland losing output due to drought conditions in 2019, with one distillery reporting the loss of one production month.

Evidence projects that Scotland’s supply-demand balance in the mid-century could be between 450 Ml per day and 0 Ml per day depending on the extent of climate change and population growth and assuming no additional adaptation to today. The supply-demand balance for the central population projection is between 290 and 260 Ml per day for +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenarios respectively.

In the late-century Scotland’s supply-demand balance could be between 440 Ml per day and -170 Ml per day depending on the extent of climate change and population growth and assuming no additional adaptation to today. The supply-demand balance for the central population projection is between 280 Ml per day and 190 Ml per day for +2°C and +4°C at 2100 scenarios respectively.

Where the assumed policy is to keep the environmental flows fixed at the same absolute volume that they are today, some of the catchments in Scotland are unable to meet their environmental flow requirements without the addition of discharges to the river network.

The coincidence of hot weather with drought can potentially exacerbate risks and severe water scarcity could have impacts on people, who would then perhaps not be able to work, and potential for reduced demand for products and services.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Evidence has found that there are high benefits (although also high potential costs) of further action to reduce the risk of water scarcity. The costs and benefits do not just fall under the category of businesses but are part of a larger picture of action to reduce demand and increase supply across business, infrastructure, and households, with an aim of protecting and enhancing the natural environment. There are also a complementary set of demand-side measures that can be introduced by businesses, many of which are no-regret and low-regret.

Currently, there is a lack of incentives for water companies to help reduce commercial water use, and reduction efforts have been left to the retail market, unlike in the domestic sector. Further understanding of sectoral usage is required for this.

Some simple steps to adaptation include increased collaboration between wholesale and retailers through Water Resource Management Plans, improving meter reading and quality of water consumption data and increased coordination during unplanned events and incidents.

Further, there needs to be a strong framework for the sustainable management of water, for example, by:

• Targeting efforts to bring non-compliant farmers in England into compliance and that ensuring basic legislation is sufficient to support further achievement of good health, as defined by the Water Framework Directive.
• Reforming abstraction licensing to ensure environmental needs are met as a function of every licence and that abstraction charges encourage efficient use; and
• Continuing investment in the Catchment Based Approach including by exploring ways to encourage private sector support and funding.

Some of the key business benefits of handling water stewardship effectively include reduced water related business risk, increased drought preparedness, reduced carbon emissions from supply and heating of water, continuity of supply from sourcing locations for retail businesses, cost savings associated with water efficiency, strong engagement with the local community and reputational benefits.

B4: Business access to finance, investment, and insurance, including access to capital

Summary of risk definition and description

There is a risk that access to finance, investment, insurance, and capital for businesses are negatively impacted by climate change through decline in availability and affordability of insurance, a reduction in the value of assets and investment and increased credit risks and cost of capital. Across Scotland this is currently a medium risk but has the potential to rise to a high magnitude in future, both to individual companies, but also the stability of the financial system overall.

Risks and opportunities to financial services can be distinguished, with those arising from sudden and slow-onset physical events (which generate increased losses for insurers) differing from slower-onset events (such as increasing insurance needs, reduced value of real-estate assets but increased infrastructure investment needs and mortgage defaults or growing capital needs for resilience).

This interplay between financial flows and physical climate risks can impact financial stability. Although these climate risks are currently low to moderate, they are expected to increase under any future warming scenario given the scale of physical damages expected to impact assets, products, and services both in Scotland, the UK and internationally. The UK (including cities such as Glasgow and Edinburgh with significant financial activity) is particularly vulnerable due to the interaction between climate hazards and financial leverage in the country, given its’ status as a global financial hub.

While comprehensive and detailed assessments of the UK’s financial sector exposure are missing, there is significant amount of new evidence largely driven by the regulatory efforts of the Bank of England (BoE) /Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) that allows more insights into current and future impacts from climate risks. For instance, there are organisation such as the Climate Financial Risk Forum (CFRF), co-chaired by the Financial Conduct Authority and the PRA, which are providing UK-specific assessments of financial risks.

In terms of domestic risks, flooding is the most significant risk to the financial system with financial impacts on insurance, mortgages, and investment. However, the impact of windstorms is less clear. It is recognised that storms are having a significant impact on businesses through damage and disruption to business infrastructure, which can lead to an immediate financial shock to the business, requiring investment and access to capital. Estimated pay-outs from the impacts of storms Ciara and Dennis are £149 million, with 61,000 domestic property claims, totalling £77 million, 9,000 commercial property claims at £61 million and 3,500 motor claims at £11 million. However, there are some future trend studies that indicate a reduction to windstorm losses in the UK under future climate scenarios.

Figure 19 below illustrates that windstorm loss projections are region specific, with Scotland projected to see relatively lower losses compared to the north of England, but marginally higher than the south of England.

With regards to impacts of hotter and drier weather, insurers have seen a rise in subsidence claims. After the 2018 heatwave, over 10,000 UK households made claims totalling £64 million in only three months. All of these have the potential translate through to the availability and affordability of insurance, to create stranded assets, to reduce the values of assets and investments, and increase the cost of capital. The main risks of lock-in are associated with long-lived investments, that have a degree of irreversibility. This can include financial investments, thus there is a risk of lock-in to those that provide the capital for these investments, i.e. the financial markets, and in particular the risk of stranded assets.

When considering investment risks, an important observation is the need to consider regional differences: “From a physical risk perspective, while average risks can be low, certain buildings may be high risk from one or more hazards. Assessing the outliers can allow investors to mitigate risks for particular assets by ensuring that building design is fit-for-purpose; transferring the risk through insurance; or, at the extreme, offloading the risk by selling the asset.” Aside from this, it is difficult to determine how this risk varies between UK nations and uncertainty on how it will change in future is low and sustaining the current action to address it is advised at present.

In Scotland, the Scottish Government has established a Scottish National Investment Bank. The bank aims to support innovative, high growth firms that have a positive impact in Scotland. The Bank’s primary mission is to support Scotland’s transition to Net Zero emissions through a range of debt and equity products, but it is also designed to support SCCAP2. A key focus will be enabling businesses to borrow money over a longer term (10 to 15 years), known as patient finance.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

• Imposing requirements on banks and insurers. Regulators could prescribe additional capital on a case by case basis, for instance if a financial institution does not adequately monitor and manage climate related risks.
• Broadening scope of existing regulations to encourage more scenario-based analysis among financial institutions on a regular basis.
• Insurability: Risk-sharing agreements between private and public financial institutions, similar to that seen in flood insurance, to meet financing gaps.
• Disclosing and reporting: Further standardisation and clarification on scenario analysis models would help so that comparisons can be made.
• Financial and physical risk metrics: Unless physical risk is being reduced through more adaptation investment and action, damages are likely to occur leading to financial implications.
• Incorporating risk reduction and data into insurance requirements.
• Financing adaptation: Further research would be beneficial in new products, such as resilience bonds, which would use premium discounts for long-term planning, such as investment in sustainable infrastructure.
• More collaboration between different parts of the financial system.
• Digital investments: Predictive modelling and decision-making based on algorithms has potential to change the way businesses view, understand and analyse risks, as well as adopt adaptive behaviours.

B5: Employee productivity in businesses through working environments and infrastructure

Summary of risk definition and description

A changing climate has the potential to affect productivity, potentially both negatively and positively, as well as indirectly through infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments. However, there is limited evidence on future risks to productivity. In this risk, employee productivity relates to work output, as opposed to labour productivity which refers more to workplace efficiency – output per worker, per job and per hour. Current magnitude is low but may become medium to high by the end of the century.

There are also risks associated with extreme high temperatures, which can have negative impacts on employees’ health and wellbeing and ability to commute to work. There is some evidence that businesses in Scotland are experiencing these impacts already. The risks are likely to vary widely across business sectors or geographies, with factors such as the type of work, for example construction or industrial processes, whether it takes place indoors or outdoors and the local built environment and infrastructure factors, for example passive ventilation, all playing a role. The COVID-19 related shift to homeworking also creates a new risk, particularly for those employees working from homes prone to overheating.

Workers engaged in certain occupations, for example heavy outdoor manual labour, are likely to be at the greatest risk of heat stress. Recent evidence from the social care sector points to detrimental impact of heat on staff wellbeing. A case study of an older and a modern care home in London reported that staff found the summertime thermal conditions more uncomfortable than the residents did. In discussions with stakeholders in Scotland it was suggested that heat resilience of workforce in agri-businesses and process related sectors is lower than that of those working in commercial buildings, with higher building standards, reducing the risk of overheating.

However, only a limited number of studies have considered the impacts of higher temperatures on productivity in the UK and there is therefore considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts and the degree of the risk to the UK both now and in the future and differentiating this between nations. One study estimates a 2% reduction in labour productivity by the end of a century.

Business decisions today about design and operation of office buildings and sites, and manufacturing processes with have high capital expenditure will determine future risk levels and are important given the lifetime of these investments. Similarly, the literature has clear thresholds associated with certain types of work, levels of work output (for different types of indoor and outdoor work) and wet bulb temperature, a combined measure of heat and humidity exposure. There are also potentially synergies and trade-offs with Net Zero, particularly through air conditioning as adaptation increases energy use, and the use of refrigerants with high global warming potential which could leak. There is also the potential for feedback loops to be created in urban areas, with heat islands being worsened by the excess heat from air conditioning units.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There is some information on various adaptation options to reduce heat in commercial buildings and linkages to the information available for domestic buildings (see risk H1, for example).

Some opportunities for labour productivity adaptation are also identified, such as transition to new ways of working, including remote and flexible working, and low carbon and energy efficiency buildings to maintain employee productivity. These behavioural changes have been tested and employed by various businesses because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but longer-term behavioural change is yet to be seen. Moreover, there are occupational and sectoral differences in the uptake of new ways of working, with some professions lending themselves better to flexible working than others.

Better collaboration and stronger governance between business, building owners, Government and infrastructure operators would help facilitate adaptation and may also deliver benefits in the next five years.

B6: Disruption to business supply chains and distribution networks

Summary of risk definition and description

Weather is already a significant cause of supply chain disruption across all sectors with exposure to climate hazards set to increase. It is not just individual companies that are exposed to supply chain risks. Adverse weather has the potential to affect the profitability of entire sectors through impacts on local and global supply chains. In the UK, 2016/17 saw shortages and high prices of an array of vegetable crops due to a combination of weather factors (storms, cold, snowfall, heavy rainfall, flooding) affecting growers in Spain, Italy and across Europe. In particular, courgette prices rose by 60%, aubergines by 132% and tomatoes by 45% and UK retailers resorted to air freighting lettuces and other items from the US to plug the gap. Very short lead times and non-warehousing of stock is likely to cause challenges in times of disruption, as seen with COVID-19-related disruptions in 2020.

Some action has been taken by business and there are opportunities from advances in technologies and from the learning and increased focus on supply chain resilience following the COVID-19 pandemic. The magnitude of risk is currently medium, with the potential to become high in future. However, it is unclear if this will keep pace with the increasing risk or how effective it will be specifically in managing climate or weather-related disruption. Therefore, more action is needed but with a low certainty in the evidence, which is skewed towards larger companies, the food sector and self-reporting.

For example, industries that are part of the food system rely on agriculture, which is particularly exposed to weather and climate and long distribution networks, with 50% of food consumed in the UK imported from 180 different countries. Similarly, risks from pests and diseases, long term soil erosion, port closures, power outages, acidified oceans disrupting cod habitats and reproduction, negative effects of extreme heat on workers, and financial pressures on the supply chain, particularly farmers, in the wake of severe events could all increasingly find their way to UK businesses via supply chains.

Supply chain risks can be locked in if UK companies invest in transport routes, distribution hubs or production centres that are more exposed or vulnerable to climate hazards. It is not clear from the evidence if these factors are considered in investment decisions of this nature. However, there is some evidence that other priorities may be leading to trends that increase lock in. The London School of Economics (LSE) Business Survey suggests UK businesses are exposed to weather related supply chain risks through dependencies on suppliers and transport networks in equal measure. However, the latter may be more significant in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland due to dependence on a limited number of transport hubs.

In the UK, heavy rainfall and surface water flooding and heating and high temperatures are the weather types that cause the greatest number of weather-related supply chain disruptions, causing significant negative impacts. Climate change is likely to contribute to an increase in exposure to supply chain disruption by driving an increasing frequency of adverse weather events and evolving climate hazards both in Scotland, the rest of the UK and overseas. However, risks specific to Scotland are more difficult to determine.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Most further actions involve capacity building, institutional changes, or the development of new strategies, technologies, or ways of working, which will take time to develop, test and implement. Therefore, there is a benefit to put these in place within the next five years even where the climate-related risks are not immediate. Strategies that businesses can take to build resilience include:

• Product diversification or geographical diversifying.
• Scenario analysis to ensure plans are robust under different plausible outcomes (by explicitly defining and separating external scenarios from internal plans). It is impossible to plan for ‘black swan’ events, which includes some freak weather events, but it is possible to plan and test for generic unpredictable events.
• Ensuring risks are incorporated into risk registers and management programmes so that optimal resources and opportunities to improve corporate performance and earnings can be identified.
• Intensification in the use of storage facilities.
• Making more use of technology to predict, monitor, record, measure, or report supply chain disruption solutions and communicate with suppliers. For example using automated communication and notification systems, Business Continuity Management (BCM) platforms, incident management platforms or social media monitoring (favoured by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)).
• Expanding firm level insurance coverage of physical risks to supply chains, including by use of new products such as non-damage supply chain insurance plans and parametric insurance (e.g. when pay outs are based on a drought duration index or rainfall data rather than losses) or captive insurance solutions. The latter can improve climate resilience by strategically funding risk exposures preparing for a worst-case scenario in the face of increasing frequencies and by accessing reinsurance markets and alternative capital markets to fund less predictable risks.

There is a role for both the public and private sector in driving resilience through supporting/ incentivising their own supply chains to implement adaptation measures by:

• Requiring physical risk disclosures.
• Setting contractual arrangements that take adaptation into account.
• Using resilience criteria with choosing suppliers as part of procurement processes. For public sector procurement, the Public Services (Social Value) Act provides a potential tool by requiring commissioners of public services to think about how they can also secure wider social, economic, and environmental benefits.
• Helping suppliers reduce their own risks. For example, the water stewardship approach provides companies with a means of committing resource and using influence to support good water practices in areas of weak governance.
• Promoting business continuity, with a particular focus on strategies that achieve multiple goals including resilience and sustainability for which there may be market failures. For example, distributed manufacturing, seasonal produce, and local sourcing have a role to play in achieving both sustainability and resilience goals.
• Supporting improved climate and location-based information and integration with other types of information.

B7: Changes in demand for goods and services

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate change will affect the production costs and demand for certain goods and services, increasing the profitability of some and decreasing that of others. The adaptation services sector in the UK is slow growing compared to other countries, but there is an opportunity for the Government to support its accelerated growth. Businesses that anticipate changing markets may be able to gain an advantage, but various barriers exist that could prevent this (e.g. upfront cost barriers to entering new markets, as well as inertia, especially for SMEs) and suggest a role for government intervention. The current magnitude of opportunity is low, rising to medium or high by the end of the century, although there is low confidence in this evidence.

Overall, there appears to be a much better understanding of business opportunities arising from a shift to a low-carbon future and the Net Zero transition than with regards to opportunities arising from adaptation to physical risks as indicate during stakeholder discussions as part of the UKCCRA3 workshops. In a report based on its surveys, CDP reported that 225 companies had identified between them US$236billion in revenue globally from the provision of adaptation goods and services. As discussed in the different examples below, whilst current opportunities exist, the extent to which these can be capitalised rest on factors such as: demand response, turnover time, adjustment of product lines, alongside quality and design of products/services, retraining and restructuring of the workforce, organisational culture, and agility. Moreover, most opportunities are coupled with risks or threshold effects, with many parallels to be drawn from the COVID-19 crisis and post-recovery opportunities.

A range of UK-wide, sector-specific opportunities are discussed in the literature, including agriculture, forestry, marine, shipping, seafood, construction, retail, tourism, climate advisory, consulting, accounting services finance and heritage. Whilst several possible opportunities for new or expanding sectors are known by stakeholders, there is little or no literature available quantifying the size or potential future for these industries.

Across the UK, there is evidence of further opportunities in the construction industry as businesses change their premises to adapt to climate change. This provides an opportunity for an increase in repairs, maintenance, or clean-up contracts. For the heritage sector particularly, increasing temperatures and extreme weather events intensify the need for repair and maintenance of heritage sites. Therefore, more will need to be spent on the materials industry (sandstone, slate etc) and on sector-specific skills (employees to repair traditional/historic buildings). As an example, an estimated £1.2bn (including grants) was spent on repairing and maintaining the historic environment in 2017 and private investment accounts for three quarters of all funding. The industry supports 66,000 jobs (2017), and the Skills Investment Plan for Scotland’s Historic Environment accounts for new job creation. Nonetheless, there are critical barriers that prevent these opportunities from being realised, such as skills.

There are some lock-in risks, which may prevent realising new opportunities. There are particular risks related to land use change to take advantage of new forms of food production, notably relating to land use change. For retail and consumer spending, there are also risks locking in maladaptive products and services, such as air conditioning. Each potential opportunity also comes with threshold effects, either in terms of biophysical thresholds (e.g. thresholds for suitability for new crops, comfort levels for beach tourism), but also potential investment return thresholds, when it makes sense for the private sector to enter and scale-up.

Business opportunities related to climate resilience will have to be aligned with the Scotland’s path to Net Zero. The scope for increased summer tourism, for example, will have to account for the carbon footprint of tourists.

Insight 5: Scotland’s Adaptation Economy

kMatrix identified that the current value of the Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change sector for Scotland was £604m for Scotland, of which £146.1m was in Glasgow City Region. They also identified that the sector is growing fast, with 14.6% growth in Scotland projected in 2019/20.

Source: Source: kMatrix (2019, for Climate Ready Clyde)
Image: Adaptation and Resilience and Adaptation and resilience to climate change sales in Scotland, 2016/17.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Given the low level of understanding of the opportunities to businesses from climate change, and the likely barriers to small businesses to enter new markets, there is likely to be a role for Government in providing evidence and supporting businesses to transition to new functions as the climate changes.

Identifying opportunities in increased demand for goods and services, such as climate advisory or adaptation products, are important to make a business case for climate adaptation in the next five years.

Across the country there appear to be significant opportunities linked to retrofitting of the building stock. Most initiatives such as the smart energy programme, are currently aimed at achieving low carbon targets. Using these investments to also increase climate resilience of buildings would bring employment and profitability to construction and advisory services.

This requires greater evidence, such as case studies, and further investigation into emerging sectors, such as in the retail sector. Business capacity needs to be assessed post-COVID-19 to determine whether these opportunities will be realised and what barriers exist.

8. International dimensions

Queen Mary 2

This section represents the second CCRA analysis of risks and opportunities for the UK from the observed and projected impacts of global climate change. It covers a broad range of initial climate drivers and impacts including food production, violent conflict, human mobility, health and governance.

It includes the risks that climate change impacts overseas present for the UK, and UK interests. Many of these impacts are transmitted through the flow of goods, finance, people and information. Whilst ultimate control of such flows is typically reserved to the UK Government, for example trade agreements, tariffs and border controls, the risks described below have impacts across the UK.

There is little differentiation in how the risks present themselves in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK nations, therefore only a high-level summary of each risk is presented below. For more information on these risks, users should look at the International Dimensions Technical Chapter.

Most of the risks and opportunities arising from international climate change have remained the same, but in some cases their urgency has increased as shown in the table below.

There follows a summary of all climate risks and opportunities related to the implications of climate change from the rest of the world.

ID1. UK food availability, safety, and quality

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate change exacerbates disruptive events impacting on agricultural production and food supply chains (from droughts, agricultural pests and diseases, storms), with increased risks of disruption which will increase the likelihood of risk cascades amplifying the impacts. Increasing risks implies a requirement to develop food systems that are resilient to disruption, rather than focusing on supply chain efficiency, which increases fragility.

The absolute availability of food is not likely to be an issue for the UK as a whole because of climate change up to 2100, but, as the international food system becomes more exposed to climate related hazards, food price spikes may become increasingly likely. This, in turn, changes the accessibility to food, particularly for the poorest in society.

Case Study 8: Fresh produce shortages in 2017

An area of concern is the extent to which the UK relies on fruit and vegetable imports as over 80% of fruit and about 50% of vegetables consumed are imported. The vegetable shortages of early 2017 were the result of climatic shocks to the food system.

Poor growing conditions in key sourcing regions, such as Murcia in southern Spain, resulted in rationing and price increases of up to 25-300% across the UK. Shortages were mostly encountered in lettuce, but also courgette, aubergines, tomatoes, peppers, broccoli, cauliflower, onions, carrots and celery. Multiple drivers of shortages were identified, including flooding in south-east Spain and cold temperatures in Italy. In Spain, the highest rainfall in 30 years reduced the area of arable land to only 30% of the area planted. Italy shifted from exporting over the European winter to importing. Traders imported from the US to fill the shortfall, thus increasing cost, emissions and contaminants associated with the produce.

During the vegetable shortages of 2017, some caterers and restaurants were bulk buying from supermarkets instead of wholesale, in response to the shortages and price spikes. Some supermarkets appeared to opt for empty shelves rather than paying the higher price. Shortages appeared to be supermarket dependent, with, for example, the Co-op not reporting shortages. This suggests that vulnerability may be the result of a high proportion of imports coming from one region. It also suggests that supply chain management might reduce the future impact of events of this kind. Indeed, some companies have since diversified their growers’ networks. For example, Florette have mitigated future risk due to production shortage in southern Spain by moving the grower network of some supply to northern Spain, southern France and northern Africa. Nonetheless, events of this sort continue to occur and interact with UK growing conditions to produce shortages, as in the case of cauliflowers in August 2019.

The socioeconomic and demographic inequalities across the UK result in different exposures and vulnerabilities to the risk of food price spikes. More broadly, environmental hazards exist everywhere and can be related to income, education, employment, age, sex, race/ethnicity and specific locations or settings. In addition to these differences in exposure, inequalities are also caused by social or demographic differences in vulnerability/susceptibility towards certain risks. For example, supermarket shoppers in cities may be exposed to variations in food prices or supply, and they will be differentially vulnerable to price rises, according to their income. Shoppers in rural locations, with access to smaller and more highly dispersed retail outlets, will be exposed to different risks as availability of food will vary more, as well as its price. Source: CCRA3 Technical Report International Dimensions Technical Chapter

Image: Tomatoes (Pixabay)

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

• That due consideration be given to a range of aspects within emerging Free Trade Agreements, following the UK’s exit from the EU.
• To remove some of the barriers for the private sector to encourage climate change adaptation, as well as ensuring a higher level of resilience along supply chains.
• For a greater focus on adaptive management, research and learning which could also contribute to more resilient food system.
• To address food access inequality, access to fresh produce and informed dietary choices, which will likely have the co-benefit of reducing vulnerability to the risk of decreasing nutritional quality of food produced due to climate change.

ID2. UK food availability and exports

Summary of risk definition and description

Global patterns of climate change can alter the comparative advantage of the UK in producing and trading in food. Climate change is one of a number of drivers that has an impact on food production patterns, through changes in productivity and/or changes in the land suitable for producing food.

On balance, the lack of evidence of global yield increases in response to climate change, and difficulties in the use of marginal land and in water management suggest that food production opportunities will not be the norm. There are, however, opportunities associated with other drivers of international food systems, not least the ongoing trend towards plant-based meat substitutes and plant-based diets, which have the potential to both mitigate climate change and result in healthier diets.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Ensuring access to a broad range of international markets would capitalise on any opportunities associated with climate impacts overseas. There is no evidence to suggest further actions that would support such opportunities are currently taking place. Access to markets, which was covered in some detail in Chapter 7 of the CCRA2 evidence review, has the co-benefit of providing some resilience to external shocks, be they climate-induced, or sourced elsewhere (e.g. a global health disruption such as COVID-19). Hence there are multiple lines of reasoning that suggest benefits of access to markets.

ID3. Migration to the UK and effects on the UK’s interests overseas

Summary of risk definition and description

Negative climate change impacts will make some places more difficult to live in and could undermine the development gains overseas in which the UK has invested. One potential adaptation is displacement and migration with affected areas most likely to be in the global south exposed to frequent climate extremes with high dependence on agriculture and weak social support programmes. Unplanned, unsupported and precarious climate migration presents risks to the human rights of the people on the move, as well as their wider social and economic opportunities. Most climate-related migration in the near future will be domestic, within affected countries or regions. Thus, the UK is unlikely to be a major migrant receiving country and there is weak evidence on any security threat associated with migrants. Where migration to the UK does increase due to change, climate will be one of the many drivers of migration, and it will take place along existing flows. However, increased mobility as a result of climate change is likely. Where people are on the move between regions overseas, there are risks to the wellbeing of those individuals and as such the potential to undermine development gains overseas.

Adaptation involves ensuring pathways for regular migration and altering negative perceptions of migration in receiving countries, as well as supporting development, infrastructure, and strong institutions and transparent decision-making.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

In the context of the Lifetime Skills Guarantee, the UK Prime Minster has highlighted skilled labour shortages that could be filled with migration until filled domestically. Thus, there is an opportunity for the UK to set up procedures to ensure that any increases in migration are beneficial to the nation. There are also likely to be ‘win-win’ opportunities ensuring that overseas development and humanitarian response empowers local communities such that they are not forced to migrate but have agency in whether, when and where they chose to move.

During the period immediately following the UK’s exit from the European Union, there is a window of opportunity to provide pathways for safe and orderly migration to the UK. The UK can maximise on the benefits that any new migrants bring and thus there are benefits to the UK’s investment in social mechanisms that allow newcomers to integrate effectively into the job market and local society.

ID4. The UK’s international interests and responsibilities

Summary of risk definition and description

Recent literature continues debating the role of climate change as a driver of conflict. Nevertheless, there is consensus in the recognition of climate as an amplifier of root causes for conflict, whilst also recognising that a range of other drivers affect the association between climate and conflict. These include, but are not limited to, pre-existing conflict at local and country scales, level of democratisation, post-colonial transformation, economic context and population growth. Overseas conflict can have an indirect impact on the UK through a variety of UK overseas interests, and various aspects such as governance, people (migration), refugees and finance and markets.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Based on a study in the US, in the context of risks to US international assistance, ‘the impacts of climate change, variability, and extreme events can slow or reverse social and economic progress in developing countries, thus undermining international aid and investments made by the United States and increasing the need for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.’ A similar observation could be made regarding the overseas aid budget of the UK.

For mitigation of water-based conflict, more cooperative behaviour is associated with transboundary agreements when participating countries are governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms that allow flexibility and specificity. Therefore, there may also be opportunities to reduce current tensions through appropriately deployed international agreements on shared resources including access to water (where rivers run between countries) or new opportunities in areas such as the Arctic.

ID5. Changes to international governance affecting the UK

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate impacts overseas have the potential to threaten and weaken international law and governance but quantifying their effects on UK’s interests and values is difficult. Risks to international law and governance from climate change include human rights violations, contestation of well-established international rules, risks of sovereign defaults in emerging economies and new legal challenges arising from low carbon policies. Such risks have the potential to threaten the UK’s economic, diplomatic and military interests and challenge its foreign policy of strengthening the rule-based international system and promoting human rights.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Diplomacy is likely to be the main means of adaptation in relation to this risk. Further engagement with multilateral processes and institutions would have benefits for ensuring that the UK preserves its interests and strengthens its image as a respected multilateral player. This could include engaging constructively with a range of processes and initiatives in the context of climate change, such as by supporting the work of the International Law Commission on sea level rise in relation to international law started in 2019, the work of the UNFCCC on loss and damage and the on-going modernisation of the Energy Charter Treaty. There would also be benefits from producing a clear plan to meet the challenges posed by a shift in UK relationships with traditional allies and changing dynamics at the United Nations, to coordinate its activities with the EU and to build new partnerships with the Commonwealth. Whilst the short-term benefit of these adaptations is small, it rises on longer timescales, commensurate with the increase in risk magnitude. There is a suggestion, therefore, that it would be beneficial to act now to enable adaptation in the future.

ID6. Increased trade for the UK

Summary of risk definition and description

The opportunities from climate change to extend international trade routes are currently limited to potential benefits from increased access to the Arctic and provision of maritime services. However, associated risks coupled with the small magnitude of opportunity lead to the magnitude of this opportunity to be low at present, but longer term, as warming continues, this rises to high. There is no clear need for current action on this issue, as, firstly, the opportunities relating to sea passages opening are being closely monitored by a range of commercial operators in maritime shipping and ancillary industries. Secondly, the UK Government is involved in International Maritime Organisation activities related to the regulation of potential changes in this opportunity.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

There is some projected analysis which indicates that opportunities from climate change, including arctic ice melt, on international trade routes could be large, including from the economic effects of trade that is facilitated by a reduction in transport distance between suppliers and consumers. The effect on UK GDP was estimated to be equivalent to an annual increase of 0.24%. There are also potential tourism opportunities that increased access to the Arctic allows, and associated port development in locations that facilitate these trade and tourism opportunities. While these would need to be seen against potentially very large negative impacts from an ice free Arctic for other reasons, they do indicate potential economic benefits. There is an issue whether these benefits will be fully realised by non-Government adaptation alone and it is possible that higher benefits would be achieved for the UK through some enabling actions from Government, which would have likely low costs.

ID7. International trade routes

Summary of risk definition and description

Climate-related disruption to non-food supply chains may occur in production facilities, for example floods affecting factories or mines, but perhaps is more likely to impact on supply-chain logistics, which can be interrupted in multiple ways. COVID-19, for example, disrupted supply chains through the closure of centralised processing facilities, the interruption of transport flows due to grounding of vehicles, lack of labour and delays at borders. With globalised supply chains characterised by ‘just-in-time’ delivery, high efficiency but low redundancy, they can be fragile and lack resilience to disruptions. Given the projected and observed increase in disruptive events, this risk may become more potent in future.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Given that shocks are likely to increase in future, as climate hazards from extreme events increase, there is benefit from a focus on building further resilience. However, resilience would typically arise from four main properties: building in redundancy (e.g. stocks), diversity (of sourcing, or substitutability), creating modularity or distributed rather than centralised networks, and creating greater flexibility/adaptability. All of these properties have typically been removed to increase efficiency and the leanness of supply chains. Thus, there is a trade-off between fragility (and lower prices) and resilience (and higher prices). As risks increase, the trade-off tips towards resilience providing better returns on average. Resilience as a ‘design feature’ may become a greater focus for investment during post COVID-19 recovery.

ID8. Economic loss to the UK

Summary of risk definition and description

A significant way that international climate risks impact the UK is through finance. This is separate from the physical impacts within the UK that climate change may have on insurance and investments (risk B4). There may be significant financial exposure to extreme weather (including wildfires), and impacts in other countries especially through the insurance markets and investments. London operates a global insurance market with products covering both direct climate change events such as agriculture insurance as well as indirect impacts such as business interruption. Investment risks are clear where domestic owned assets are exposed to extreme weather events in other regions or supply chains are disrupted. This could have a significant impact on all types of asset classes and potentially put further stress on UK pension funds.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Whilst banking and insurance sectors have responded effectively to current extreme weather events, the increase in magnitude and frequency means the likelihood of ‘unhedgeable risk‘ is higher, straining the insurance sector. Given that financial risks are still not integrated within firm operating models or in financial markets, there are still significant systematic risks. Whilst companies have started adopting the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations, identifying climate risks is only the first step. TCFD’s most recent status update report acknowledges that there needs to be a better understanding of how disclosing climate-related financial information is changing corporate strategies on adaptation, and how investors are using the disclosed information to inform their decisions.

ID9. Introduction of infectious diseases
to the UK from abroad

Summary of risk definition and description

There are two factors that determine climate-induced vector borne disease risk. These are emergent favourability of overseas climate, and prevalence. The risk is high where the vector has been introduced recently and become endemic. There are several examples where UK visitors to popular parts of western Europe now bring the risk of exposure to diseases that until recently were only found in the tropics. The UK climate is also relevant, since it may change enough to allow local transmission of these diseases by vectors which transmit the infection human to human or to a further host from that initially overseas infected person (risk H8).

Of the infectious diseases with known climate drivers, the most likely to impact the UK are those transmitted by animal vectors, such as mosquitoes, midges and ticks, when considering disease of human and domesticated and wild animals (case study 9). In some cases, birds are the possible introducer of the pathogen, but the local climatic conditions must allow the transmission of that pathogen by the vectors and to date this has been observed in the UK more for insects than other animals.

Case Study 9: Risks to the UK from competent vectors

The spread of dengue from nine countries a few decades ago, to being endemic for almost half the world’s population today, is highly relevant to ongoing climate-induced risks as people continue to travel and return from these countries. The changes in the distribution of dengue are possibly in part driven by climate change, urbanisation and the ability of mosquitoes to thrive within polluted waters of rapidly expanding urban areas, mostly in the tropics and sub-tropics.

The locally acquired cases of dengue in Spain and France due to Aedes albopictus reported in September 2019, Italy’s first dengue outbreak in August 2020 and the 2017 local outbreak of chikungunya virus in Italy have shown how vulnerable mainland Europe, frequently visited by UK travellers, is to the introduction of what were seen previously as tropical diseases.

Further areas of concern include the spread of other diseases in the UK. For example, Culex modestus, a competent vector of West Nile virus, has recently found to be well established in the marshland sites of the Thames Estuary and could spread to a wider area. The discovery of the virus that causes tick-borne encephalitis was found in two places the UK for the first time in 2019. There has also been a more regular introduction and detection of Aedes albopictus in Kent. Source: CCRA3 Technical Report International Dimensions Technical Chapter

Image: Mosquito (Pixabay)

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

Actions to promote adaptation to emerging diseases include:

• More real-time monitoring of air travel routes, transmission pathways of movement of people and goods.
• Communicate outdoor risks if a vector-borne disease is introduced.
• Improve training and awareness of primary health care practitioners.
• Raise the levels of surveillance programmes and some random screening (for example, part of blood donation screening for antibodies).
• Improvement of public and professional level information, transmission pathway IT/information.

There would also be benefits from increased surveillance of wildlife, people or other imports (e.g. used tyres, the trade of which can aid the spread of mosquitos) coming into the UK, which comes with increased costs. However, if newly arrived infected vectors or animals in combination with more favourable UK climate leads to local transmission, the cost of the impacts may be a lot more. COVID-19 has provided a good example of the scale of impact costs and how this can cascade into other sectors. Therefore, it shows that investments in surveillance can pay off to avoid high impact situations.

ID10. Risk multiplication to the UK

Summary of risk definition and description

There is the potential for hazards to create cascading risks that cross geographies and sectors through infection. COVID-19 is an example, where the emergence of the disease may have an attributable component from climate change, but the spread of the disease and attempts to mitigate it have created disruptions in demand, in trade through supply-chain disruptions from changes in labour availability, through people movement and broader economic impacts. This variety of impacts affecting multiple sectors and all countries are an exemplar of ‘systemic risks‘ arising from highly inter-connected sectors and economies. Therefore, the interconnectedness of risks such as those outlined in this section so far suggests it would be beneficial to have a more joined-up assessment of the overall risk of international climate change to the UK, which is more than just a sum of each individual risk.

Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years

While definitions vary, much of the theoretical literature emphasises transformational adaptation and there is often a focus on changes in governance as well as underlying causes of risk or vulnerability. However, there is very little economic evidence on the costs and benefits of transformational adaptation, reflecting that there is very little evidence on what transformational adaptation looks like in practice. This is an area where further research would be beneficial.

9. Next Steps

The CCRA3 Technical Report assesses the current and future risks to the UK from climate change. It does not recommend the specific adaptation actions that are needed to reduce risk or take advantage of opportunities in the future. The report identifies specific areas where further action is felt to be needed most urgently, based on the available evidence, and it discusses the benefits of taking further action. But an economic appraisal of different actions is out of scope of this assessment.

The task for the UK Government and devolved administrations, following the publication of this third CCRA Assessment, will be to weigh up the costs and benefits of different options and set objectives and actions in the next national adaptation programmes, from 2023 onwards (see page 4). The cycle will then enter a new stage from 2027, when the fourth CCRA will be published (see figure 20).

Further outputs can be read alongside this summary, including a series of 17 briefings that summarise the risks to key sectors (these being Agriculture and Food, Business, Cultural heritage, Energy, Flooding and coastal change, Freshwater habitats, Health and social care, High temperatures, Housing, Land use/land use change and forestry, Marine and coastal environment, Telecoms and ICT, Terrestrial biodiversity, Transport, Water availability, Wildfire and Young people).

Other outputs include the Climate Change Committee’s statutory advice to Government on the CCRA, in the form of a separate CCRA3 Advice Report, drawing on the evidence presented in the Technical Report. There are also summaries for the other UK nations and other resources, all of which are available on the UK Climate Risk website.

-END-

Footnotes

[1] The Scottish Environment Protection Agency defines the likelihoods of flooding as follows:

High likelihood: A flood event is likely on average in the defined area once in every ten years (1:10). Or a 10% chance of happening in any one year.

Medium likelihood: A flood event is likely in the defined area on average once in every two hundred years (1:200). Or a 0.5% chance of happening in any one year.

Low likelihood: A flood event is likely in the defined area on average once in every thousand years (1:1000). Or a 0.1% chance of happening in any one year.

[2] See Parliament UK website for an explanation of devolved and reserved powers.

[3] For Scotland, University of Exeter, on behalf of the UK Climate Change Committee, commissioned Sniffer to provide specific Scottish policy advice and support to chapter authors on the risk assessment.

[4] These values are taken from the UKCP18 probabilistic projections and represent a central estimate of 30-year average change in each variable from a 1981-2000 baseline. Two emissions scenarios are used; RCP2.6 (roughly equivalent to a +2°C global warming scenario) and RCP6.0 (roughly equivalent to a +4°C global warming scenario). *The exception is Sea Level Rise, where the RCP8.5 scenario is used, as for marine projections this is closer to a +4°C global warming scenario. The full likely range of change (i.e. 10 – 90^th percentile) in each average variable is not shown here but is available from the full UKCP18 database. It is important to note that because these projections show average changes for a 30-year period and only the central estimate, changes in individual years would show a much greater range of change and could be significantly higher.