Terrestrial Biodiversity Briefing

About this document

Findings from the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Evidence Report 2021

This briefing summarises how terrestrial biodiversity has been assessed in the latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) Technical Report, and what types of action to adapt to climate change risks and opportunities would be beneficial in the next five years.

This publication is available in PDF format at the end of the page >

Key messages

• Expected climatic changes including changing rainfall leading to periods of water scarcity or flooding at different times, extreme heat and wildfire, could affect the rate and extent of terrestrial species losses or gains across the UK.
• The negative consequences on native UK terrestrial species from a greater number of pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species (INNS) are already thought to be increasing, particularly due warmer winters.
• Other new species arriving in the UK as the climate changes also have the potential to enhance species richness and contribute to community adaptation to climate change.
• Terrestrial biodiversity is an important contributor to the UK’s landscape character, meaning that changes to the former could directly affect the latter.

Risks, opportunities, and benefits of further action

Average UK wide scores

• 

  N1. Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from changing conditions

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  N2. Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  N3. Opportunities from new species colonisations in terrestrial habitats

  Further investigation

  Read more

• 

  N4. Risk to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness

  More action needed

  Read more

• 

  N18. Risks and opportunities from climate change to landscape character

  Further investigation

  Read more

1. Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from changing conditions (N1)

There is considerable evidence of the current and potential future effects of climate change and associated drivers on terrestrial biodiversity in the UK. This includes impacts on individual species and their distribution, as well as the composition and abundance of populations. Expected climate changes including increasing temperatures, changes in rainfall and wildfire, can lead to losses or gains of species in a community or geographic area.

Recent examples of changes in bird abundance where climate change is thought to be a key driver include a 65% decline in curlews between 1970 and 2015 across the UK and a 31% decline in golden plovers between 1995 to 2015 in Scotland.

In future, climate modelling and analysis of 402 species in England found that 36% were at risk of range loss and 41% may expand their range (see opportunity N3 below).

It is hard to assess the balance of risk versus benefit for terrestrial species as the change will vary so much depending on the species or group being considered, and changes in species distributions will also be affected strongly by other factors like land use change. But the potential for local or more widespread extinctions and losses means the current and future risk are both considered to be high across the UK.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Increase current efforts to reduce existing human pressures on biodiversity, improve the ecological condition of protected wildlife sites and restore degraded ecosystems such as peatlands, wetlands and native woodlands. An ecosystem with greater biological variety will be more resilient to climate change as well as to other pressures.
• Conservation planning could include further consideration of actions that will maximise natural capital alongside protecting specific species, including further realignment of the coast, catchment-scale management strategies and landscape-scale initiatives to increase habitat extent and improve habitat condition and connectivity.
• Account for climate change more explicitly in conservation planning at site level.
• Ensure that nature-based solutions are at the heart of the UK’s actions to achieve Net Zero as well as to adapt to climate change impacts like flooding and heat.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk N1

2. Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species (N2)

New and emerging pests, diseases and INNS have been identified as important risks due to their negative effect on biodiversity, although climate change is a second order factor to their emergence.

Warmer winters have already had a clear influence on outbreaks of some pests and pathogens.

Terrestrial environments in the UK have seen the highest number of recorded INNS compared to freshwater or marine environments between 2010 and 2018, with 58 in total.

There are also potential economic risks of INNS. The Environmental Audit Committee has indicated that they potentially cost the UK economy £1.7 billion per year.

While the risk is assessed as having a medium magnitude in the current climate, it is assessed as high from the 2050s in England for all scenarios, and across the UK as a whole by the 2080s in a 4˚C warming scenario.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk N2

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• The costs of dealing with established pests, diseases and INNS are considerably higher than the costs of biosecurity measures to prevent them becoming established, so continued action in monitoring, surveillance and early response will have high benefits.
• Prevention is a key priority and so potential pathways of introduction should be prioritised and managed.
• Consideration is also being given to the establishment of a non-native species inspectorate to bring INNS closer in line with other biosecurity regimes such as Plant and Animal Health.
• Other possible priorities include enhancing the evidence on risks, opportunities and implementation of adaptation options available for specific INNS species and habitats, and their interconnections; enhancing analysis of the movement of INNS from the near continent; conducting assessments of long term lock-in implications of emergency response and planning decisions relating to INNS; routinely including climate change projection information in breeding programmes; and conducting contingency planning for a wider range of scenarios.

3. Opportunities from new species colonisations in terrestrial habitats (N3)

As species respond to climate change by moving and/or expanding their ranges northwards, they could colonise new areas including the UK.

If these species interact negatively with native species, or alter habitat condition, then they may be considered an INNS (see risk N2). However, in some cases they could also enhance species richness and contribute to community adaptation to climate change. In addition to new species arriving, other species that are already in the UK may increase in population due to warmer winters. There is a fair amount of evidence for bird and insect species showing northwards range shifts, but less research is available for other species groups. As with risk N1, predicting the precise changes in species distributions that will happen in the future is difficult due to so many driving factors alongside climate change.

The current and future opportunity associated with new species colonisation is assessed as medium for the UK (high in a 4°C warming scenario by the 2080s) partly because there is a lack of evidence of the long-term effects of such movement, particularly for species that are not as visible as birds, for example. More information is needed to facilitate species movement and to consider how to integrate them into conservation planning.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Land management policies such as the forthcoming Environmental Land Management Scheme and the Nature Recovery Network will help in terms of habitat creation and support for species arriving in the UK. However, at present it is not possible to assess the extent of the impact that these initiatives are likely to have on this opportunity.
• Any positive impact could be further enhanced by carbon offsetting and government funding in support of implementing the UK’s Net Zero targets.
• Developing new approaches to establishing species in new locations and adapting objective setting and condition assessments to reflect changing distributions, for which there are no plans or funding at present.

Further details on this opportunity: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, opportunity N3

4. Risk to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness (N4)

Soils are a fundamental underpinning resource for woodlands and forestry, as well as all terrestrial ecosystems. There is increasing evidence of the negative impacts of climate change on soil resources since CCRA2, often in combination with other factors, notably land use change.

Heavier rainfall events, and increased soil moisture deficits in summer will exacerbate the loss of soil resources. The current rate of erosion is estimated at 2.9Mt per year in England and Wales with losses from productivity estimated at £40m per year, though similar values are not currently available in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Severe degradation of soil quality would be very likely to have long-term, potentially irreversible, implications particularly given the critical importance of soil in providing a range of ecosystem services. At the same time however, higher temperatures could have some benefits for soil function from increased microbial growth and activity, though emissions of carbon and methane from soil may also increase with warming.

The balance of these risks and opportunities for soils from climate change is still a subject for debate and further research. The risk is considered medium magnitude now, rising to high by the 2050s across the UK.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• Further research and comprehensive monitoring of soils to support development of sustainable soil policy initiatives to help to boost the resilience of soils to climate change.
• More investment in national-scale soil monitoring programmes and monitoring of different management interventions linking adaptation and mitigation.
• An improved evidence base on the climate-related implications for the wider range of multiple benefits delivered by soils, including to maintain water quality, alleviate flooding at catchment-scale, reduce drought risk and for priority habitats and species.
• Further integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies based upon long-term planning, including for ambitious land use policies such as woodland expansion and new bioenergy crops, based upon local soil properties. Soils, and especially soil organic carbon (SOC), are crucial to the Net Zero agenda and hence climate-related impacts on SOC will have important implications for achieving the Net Zero goal, especially for peat which has high carbon stocks.
• Improved advice for land managers together with payments that incentivise improved soil health.

Further details on this risk: Natural Environment and Assets Technical Chapter, risk N4

5. Risks and opportunities from climate change to landscape character (N18)

This topic is broadly defined to include risks and opportunities relating to landscapes, landscape character and the historic environment and considers both prevention of landscape character changes and planning for inevitable projected changes.

There are many examples of landscapes that are integral to the UK’s landscape character and that are also important in ecological terms, but that could also be affected by climate change. These include the uplands, coastal wetlands, hay meadows, coppices, orchards and some parklands.

Future changes to landscape character will occur from a range of natural responses to a changing climate, including changes to terrestrial biodiversity.

Landscapes have already been modified by a combination of changing conditions, including warmer temperatures, through eutrophication in freshwater landscapes, increasing incidence of wildfire and climate-related changes in agricultural landscapes.

The impacts on landscape character are assessed as increasing in magnitude from medium at present to high by the 2050s across the UK.

Beneficial actions in the next five years include:

• A collaborative approach between local and national government that incorporates climate change into planning as part of the production of Landscape Character Assessments.
• Further investigation into public perceptions on landscapes and climate change factors to help with managing and innovating changes.

Variations across the UK

Background

The UK Government is required by the UK Climate Change Act 2008 to assess the risks and opportunities from climate change to the UK every five years and respond to the risks via a National Adaptation Programme, covering England. The devolved administrations also publish their own adaptation programmes in response to the risk assessment.

For this third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, the Government’s independent advisers on climate change, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have been asked to prepare an independent risk assessment setting out the latest evidence on the risks and opportunities to the UK.

Over 450 people from more than 130 organisations have contributed to preparing the assessment. The risks have been assessed using the latest climate projections for the UK which were updated in 2018 by the Met Office. These briefings summarise some of the key topics that are assessed through the Technical Report, to enable readers to understand the key messages and where to find more detail.

Where to find more detail

Each risk or opportunity in this briefing has an identifier code linked to the full analysis, which is available in the CCRA3 Technical Report. Readers are encouraged to use these briefings to locate the parts of the Technical Report of most relevance to them.

Alternatively, if you would like a summary of the analysis by UK nation, please go to the national summary documents: